RE: Promising!6 Jan 2023 13:54
Wyndrum - you said "If you buy today you are effectively saying you know more than the combined market. (You may turn out to be right but the market has the same info as you and price it accordingly.)"
This is the 'Efficient-Market Hypothesis' isn't it?
That hypothesis is a generalisation that assumes an infinitely sized market. In reality a large seller or buyer can move the price and if there aren't enough people in the market on the counter-side then the price will change. The large seller or buyer often knows nothing more than anyone else, but they still can move the price. There often aren't enough rational buyers and sellers for the market to be 'efficient'. This is where the opportunities for investors lie.
I think you kind of said similar at the end: "I have come to the conclusion the company and the SP are 2, for the most part, separate entities , one not being connected to the other."
This Buffett Quote is apt: " Short term the stock market is a voting machine, but long term it is a weighing machine."
But enough of all that. The question I am trying to workout is whether HARL is too cheap!