Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Believe it or not companies in worse positions than Rockhopper raise money. I believe those investors may then 'forward sell' or just sell, but make sure they make a profit.
Some companies ramp the share price up via RNS. "We are now complete holders of the entire stuff!" or similar. Then a few days after the share spike the company raises.
But our BOD has no experience of this and anyway are they able?
AIMHO and WTFDIK
I must admit that the news today that flights from/to South Africa and Namibia have been suspended made me worry a little. Hopefully it is only temporary though:
"Amid the concerns, flights to the UK from South Africa and five other southern African countries, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe, have been suspended until 4am on Sunday.
From Sunday onwards, new arrivals of UK and Irish residents into the UK from those nations will be required to quarantine in government-approved hotels for 10 days after they were placed on the red list on Thursday night."
https://news.sky.com/story/no-cases-of-new-variant-in-uk-but-highly-likely-it-has-spread-to-other-countries-javid-says-12479219
Forgetting the poor management here (and I wish I had forgotten them much earlier!)
I personally think Sea Lion is unlikely to happen now. The Falkland Islands are remote, they have no oil and gas infrastructure, it will costs loads of money to develop Sea Lion, and the nearest country Argentina is trying its best to stop development. Add to this the current ESG and anti-carbon sentiment and I am almost sure it won't be developed.
We have one thing left Ombrina Mare. But why is this OM arbitration so delayed? Was the last argument spurious from Italy? Could the EU scupper this somehow?
The market cap. here is over 5 times the cash they hold, and they have liabilities.
If OM fails we are done for.
Thanks Surfit, a good point - it is so hard for us private investors to know where we are on just RNSes. We never get to see the contracts (or get paid to do it!).
I hope you are right and it is still on the old terms.
What is great about this company is that if they can get some revenue together they can then start to re-invest it, and there are a lot of things to invest in. Cameroon (Dissoni and the deep stuff) and the 3D seismic in South Africa.
Tower just need a break for once!
To add, I think it was Rpoodle who said this first (thanks). Last year's Navitas Farmout deal was a blinder deal for Premier. They managed to remove the existing ($350 million was it?) carry obligations to Rockhopper.
When the inevitable withdrawal came (from the now Harbour), they had no obligations to pay Rockhopper. It was now an easy exit.
Cyan also pointed out that Premier took so much from us during the FEED that it begs the question whether we should have a forensic accountant involved to look into where the money went.
In these small caps. it seems to me that it is the few people that trade the shares that make the price. Carl's 10% or so was a hefty wack and clearly someone has been selling for a quick profit.
I think this Benjamin Graham quote is apt:
"In the short run the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.”
On the Navitas involvement.
I'm personally starting to think that Sea Lion will never be developed. Navitas was/is interested, but that was when the UK government was going to pay a chunk. No chance there now in my opinion. Yes Navitas raised $800 million for production in the Gulf of Mexico, but that has the infrastructure already there and it has no political problems - unlike the Falkland Islands.
I sadly reckon we are left with the OM result. But even if we earn something substantial there, what will our BOD do with it?
I fear they will carry on as before, or worse.
If an award comes soon will Harbour try to relieve us of it by offering to sell us their stake in Sea Lion? Last time, we gave PMO our Carry (so they lost any obligation to pay us - great deal that!).
Will Harbour now take our cash? It wouldn't surprise me!
Beluga Energy could be the ideal partner for the farm in because they specialise in trading the oil that we will hopefully be producing. Tower's 51% could get into the hundred's of millions of dollars if Njonji and then Dissoni come through.
I am expecting a total share issue of around 3 billion after all warrants and options are finished. Add in South Africa which could be huge and Namibia then I wouldn't be surprised if this 20 bagged from here, possibly more.
Of course if everything goes against Tower like it has in the past then zero is quite possible!
I know what you mean. A large holder can depress the price while they get involved in the next financing. It's all depressing but as others have said, Monecor's holding is diminishing and we have real news to push this. The warrants and options too will slow us down but if Cameroon gets to production I think we will see it in the share price. I just hope that we can get there without any more equity raises.
That is a bit sad as I have been to the Real Greek once and did feel the same. The starter was great but the main course meat was dry and not particularly hot. Fulham Shore is a good company though (especially the Franco Manca part) and I am sure they will be thinking about the quality.
Has your family sent them feedback?
Thanks Cubane1 - a good listen. Here's a link:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0010x2r
14 mins 20 seconds in or thereabouts.
I agree with you that things don't seem to add up and I think it will be very interesting when we find out Harbour's exit strategy.
$1+ billion has been spent so far to get here. With recent oil prices there must be a stage when the political issues are outweighed by the amount of prospective cash from Sea Lion.
No wonder Navitas are still interested.