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very sensitive observation. totally agree. it is a bit risky investment. After open offer, if sp is over 17p, both lender and individual holder can be out with good profit. i expect sp is aournd 15-17p on and after the date of subscribtion and may fall to 10p again if some bad news emerge and then ii buy more shares. after solidation of bottom, we may see 30p in the long term.
i have 10000 shares recorded in open offer. The share price will stay between 17p (lender's offer price) and 25p (sp this morning). i could buy 190000 at 15.3p. which is too much for me. i will buy in the market if sp go under 15p and buy full in open offer if sp over 25p and 30% between.
As my guess in my last post, 16p is the offer price. 15.3p for share holders and 15.3*1.1=17p for lenders. You can calculate how much you are entitled in open offer. the record date is 6pm Feb 25. so the buyer today is not in the open offer. am i right? what does it mean by ex-entitlement? if you hold, you can buy 19*holding at 15.3p (recommend you sell holding now and buy back at 15.3p). i expect 30% of shareholders will participate in open offer. the bank will hold 70% shares. so game is still going on.
My guess is 16p of issue price so that 3billion new shares issued for the debt £480m. no PI will have interest on open offer etc and is nothing now. after right issue, still have debt £275m. the price will hanging at 10-20p. over 20p, debt holder will be happy to sell. under 10p, long term investor will buy. i am still holding at loss.
Interserve is a patient, a lot of evil "doctors" want to kill the patient.
at the end, good uk service companies disappear and Chinese etc companies coming to take the job and provide poor quality work and ask for more money. no government want to see this. they have to support. RBS etc is more like national bank, there is no way they can destroy the company. the company make 3billion of sustainable revenue with 4% profit. after paying interest of 30m (5% interest?) and tax, leaving 50m profit to shareholder. use 30m payback debt and 10m to shareholder bonus. that is 10p pershare. with healthy recovering, the company will be debt free after 20 years. that time, banks want to lend money asking for lower interest. the company say no, no borrow at all. will that day come?
debt maybe a burden which drag the company to fail or maybe a momentum to accelerate the development of the company. we call it money make money. Many good companies have huge debt to expand the business more efficiently. IRV's 600m debt is not a problem as long as the business make profit and bank are supportive for a company with revenue over 3b. with a MC 50m and profit around 100m, we will see the sp back 100p soon when company win more projects and operate more efficiently. stay away if you can't afford loss. which is more probable for the share price? up 30p or down 30p? I think II have already answered the question.
I expect the share price will rise to 20p before the suspension RNS. i sold at 25p of my share offer £10K and will buy back if sp is below 20p.
Babbler2, you are well on spot. but i dont agree on dead cat bounce claim as there is a lot of acitivity there. I am not a risky taker but try to find some company which is active in the market and share is over sell. sometimes i do like a bit gamble. yesterday, in the last 5 minutes i bet £30 on Man U draw and make £300, good money for the lunch today.
OMI look good at long term but short term is not good at all. SP will struggle at 8p and then 6p and even under 5p when license issue, big loss and more share placing is reported in next finance year. If you hold OMI, either sell and buy back at low and lock in your drawer for 5 years.
Congratulations for those holder who bought at low. i bought at 5p and 3p and 1.7p but sold over 6.5p (cost me 6k and made 12k). i bought some at 4.5p and sold all at 6.5p. i did some research on the resource of OMI and think it is worth sth and almost lose my confidence. I sold my holding becasue initial stage the buys are not determined to buy. i couldn't sell £3k. it took me 2 hours to sell all my holding in three batch with each 6k. so, i am not so confident share price will go high (in my first post, i do said it will go up 10p). it seems i made wrong decision. but this is not low risky anymore and not my target. another similar share as OMI is ORR (called STI before) which has similar bachground, but maybe their board is not so smart.
some people are buying and other are selling. buying is because news and selling is because of reality. i think range is 4.-7p. the share is almost dead cat before news. after news release, it takes ages to turn into profitable considering the cost and gold depression. i hope price will break 10p. good luck to longer.
some investors have made good money if they bought below 1p. the volume is large yesterday around 2p so I sold my 4k holding at 2p. there are massive resistance at 2.3p which is the drop price of last bad news. it will take some time to try to break. now 1.5p is the neutral share price and start to build the bottom. I don't expect share price go further down much after good news released. I will start to buy at around 1.3-1.5p.
it is a sell, no doubt at all. the seller must have got the shares from OO otherwise, he would sell at 40p. it is a good sign that the share price is strong even at large sell. I expect the sells from OO are drying up and share price will rise. the first target is 50p.