Member Info for Love_You

BoomerBower, albeit politics is the topic of the moment it doesn't actually seem to affect our futures as much as the decisions of Central Banks, in my opinion.

Since Central Banks decided to support existing businesses getting larger - instead of financially supporting more competition within the economy - then choice has decreased, prices have risen, and there are fewer products on the market that I find interesting/useful.

Why are Central Bankers aiding in the transfer of wealth from private investors to the institutional investors?

The institutional investors do not re-invest in what the majority of citizens water (cheaper energy, continued use of fossil fuels as they're cheaper, more houses, fresher food, more supermarkets in rural areas, more independent shops/businesses (this is how wonderful unique products get created - often they are far better than the majority of mass-produced ones).

If a partial stake in a mere brand (a concept with little substance as it all depends on image/marketing which is very fickle) can be worth $600 million then 350 million barrels of oil in the ground (in an easily accessible area just offshore a stable and energy-hungry economy) has to be worth billions. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-50465151

The CEO of this company has a ludicrously easy job - everyone I know uses oil derivatives everyday in their day-to-day lives (and when they go on holiday their use goes up quite a lot). Day-to-day everyone I know eats food packaged in plastic or plastic-coated cardboard, and they drive a car or use buses/diesel trains (which even if electric have many of their parts derived from oil. Also, think of all the oil used in the manufacturing processes when producing these vehicles).

Most people I know like to drink coffee or tea (which comes from India, China, Columbia, Indonesia, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Kenya, or Peru). If you look at the vegetables in supermarkets in winter a lot of them are from Israel, South Africa, Kenya, Australia, France, Spain, Morocco, Peru etc). Also often supermarket beef comes from Argentina and supermarket lamb from New Zealand. These products would go off if transported thousands of miles by ship - so mostly they are transported by aircraft. Think of all the jet fuel being used just to feed the majority of the 65 million UK citizens on a daily basis. Then multiply this several times when you think of the amount of oil-related fuels needed to keep the growing middle classes in China and India well-fed!

So most people use oil everyday as part of their normal lifestyle. It is beyond belief that investors are not willing to pay a reasonable amount to buy a company which owns an asset which is so essential to the everyday lifestyle of more than three-quarters of the seven billion people on Earth.

I would say investors are being hypocrites. They want to pretend to be green and good. Really they should just acknowledge the fact oil is absolutely essential to most people's everyday lifestyles and therefore they should not be ashamed to pay a fair price for oil assets or for the shares of oil companies. We have already lost 95% of our value since 2012 - unless as a fund manager you can claim to use no oil at all then stop being a stingy hypocrite and pay even as little as £300 million to buy PVR - shareholders would very much appreciate it, although most of them would still make a loss on their initial investment - but why are you crucifying the ordinary shareholders when they are not the hypocrites for investing in oil?

If a partial stake in a mere brand (a concept with little substance as it all depends on image/marketing which is very fickle) can be worth $600 million then 350 million barrels of oil in the ground (in an easily accessible area just offshore a stable and energy-hungry economy) has to be worth billions.

The CEO of this company has a ludicrously easy job - everyone I know uses oil derivatives everyday in their day-to-day lives (and when they go on holiday their use goes up quite a lot). But even day they day everyone I know eats food packaged in plastic or plastic-coated cardboard, they drive a car (which even if electric has many parts derived from oil and think of all the oil used in the manufacturing process), and most people like to drink coffee or tea (which came from Columbia, Indonesia, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Kenya, or Peru). If you look at the vegetables in supermarkets in winter a lot of them are from Israel, South Africa, Kenya, Australia, France, Spain, Morocco, etc).

So most people use oil everyday as part of their normal lifestyle. It is beyond belief that investors are not willing to pay a reasonable amount to buy a company which owns an asset which is so essential to the everyday lifestyle of more than three-quarters of the seven billion people on Earth.

I would say investors are being hypocrites. They want to pretend to be green and good. Really they should just acknowledge the fact oil is absolutely essential to most people's everyday lifestyles and therefore they should not be ashamed to pay a fair price for oil assets or for the shares of oil companies. We have already lost 95% of our value since 2012 - unless as a fund manager you can claim to use no oil at all then stop being a stingy hypocrite and pay even as little as £300 million to buy PVR - shareholders would very much appreciate it, although most of them would still make a loss on their initial investment - but why are you crucifying the ordinary shareholders when they are not the hypocrites for investing in oil?

Anything seems possible now that Central Bankers have destroyed their credibility instead of resetting the financial system (which they could of done in autumn 2008 but chose instead to cover up the previous excessive levels of financial fraud in the economic system as a whole by creating a Ponzi scheme fuelled by ultra low interest rates, currency depreciation, and direct interference in the running of private companies (such as when they told GM, Ford etc to produce cars/trucks with smaller engines contrary to what a large segment of their customers seemed to have wanted - large and powerful utility trucks to get on with the business of upgrading infrastructure in the USA).

Back in autumn 2008 who would have believed that QE1, QE2 and QE3 were going to come along?

Back in autumn 2008 who would have believed that global oil production would increase by 20% by 2018 (when everyone on the news/in the media at the time wanted governments to stop funding fossil fuels due to climate change)?

Back in autumn 2008 who would have believed that the transfer record in football would increase to over £240 million (the Neymar deal)?

Back in autumn 2008 who would have believed that UK interest rates would stay at 0.5% for the next eight years and would by late 2019 only be at 0.75% (instead of back to 2.75% for example which still seems quite a low figure)?

I'm at a loss to know what to think anymore. It just seems so bizarre these days that with the right people in a room an asset can be valued at £300 million, and change the people and suddenly the valuation becomes, "it's a toxic asset which isn't worth anything at all."

How can the financial system function when someone can buy a toxic asset for £1, change the people in the room, and suddenly it becomes worth £300 million and that's the price another company has to pay (and their shareholders will lose out next year when the asset is written down to zero and the share price adjusts downwards accordingly).

Anything seems possible now that Central Bankers have destroyed their credibility instead of resetting the financial system (which they could of done in late 2008 but choose instead to cover up the previous excessive levels of financial fraud by creating a Ponzi scheme fuelled by ultra low interest rates, currency depreciation, and direct interference in the running of private companies (such as when they told GM, Ford etc to produce cars/trucks with smaller engines contrary to what a large segment of their customers seemed to have wanted - large and powerful utility trucks to get on with the business of upgrading infrastructure in the USA).

Back in autumn 2008 who would have believed that QE1, QE2 and QE3 were going to come along?

Back in autumn 2008 who would have believed that global oil production would increase by 20% by 2018 (when everyone on the news/in the media at the time wanted governments to stop funding fossil fuels due to climate change)?

Back in autumn 2008 who would have believed that the transfer record in football would increase to over £240 million (the Neymar deal)?

Back in autumn 2008 who would have believed that UK interest rates would stay at 0.5% for the next eight years and would by late 2019 only be at 0.75% (instead of back to 2.75% for example which still seems quite a low figure)?

Manyana, what changes people's beliefs about value?

Back in 2013 financially savvy people would have said if you could buy PVR for £250 million that would be an absolute bargain?

But how many financial analysts now think paying £250 million to buy PVR would be an absolute bargain? What has changed their idea of "value"? The Barryoe oil-and-gas asset is just the same as it was back then - plus, global oil demand is actually higher now than in 2013. So logically PVR should be worth much more than £250 million in a takeover by another oil company such as BP, Exxon, Total or Tullow.

I would agree with you that given BP has net debt of £36 Billion, and Royal Dutch Shell has net debt of £60 Billion then it should be a drop in the ocean for them to find £100 million to takeover PVR.

But what "should be the case" has not been happening in financial markets for years now. QE has distorted everything and nothing makes sense anymore. Nobody who is reasonably sane financially could think paying £240 million for Neymar is a better use of money than paying £100 million to buy PVR (as the Barryoe oil-and-gas asset is worth billions as you rightly say and it can easily be developed for less than £200 million).

If Barcelona were rational they would sell Neymar, use the money to buy PVR for £100 million, develop Barryoe and make a profit of £1,000 million. And then they would invest this money in re-buying Neymar and also in cloning technology. They would then produce another 3 Neymars and sell them simultaneously (before anyone realised that Neymar had been cloned). They would then ....... have descended into absurdity.

But when did it become a farce? That is perhaps a more interesting question.

Lol

Anything is possible. Back in autumn 2008 who would have believed that QE1, QE2 and QE3 were going to come along?

Back in autumn 2008 who would have believed that global oil production would increase by 20% by 2018 (when everyone on the news/in the media at the time wanted governments to stop funding fossil fuels due to climate change)?

Back in autumn 2008 who would have believed that the transfer record in football would increase to over £240 million (the Neymar deal)?

Back in autumn 2008 who would have believed that UK interest rates would stay at 0.5% for the next eight years and would by late 2019 only be at 0.75% (instead of back to 2.75% for example which still seems quite a low figure)?

Back in late 2008 who would have believed that the net debt of Chevron would have more than doubled by 2018 and yet the share price would of actually gone up (not down due to their excessive levels of debt).

I am not saying Chevron is the only oil company with excessive debt. Royal Dutch Shell has net debt of over $77 Billion. Petrobras has net debt of over $100 Billion. So their net debts have gone from worryingly large in 2008 to their current level of more than double what they were (how come investors seems so relaxed as if the world was in a financial mess in 2008 it is in a far bigger mess right now).

All of the US shale oil producers have grown their oil production so rapidly through increasing their net debts.

Low interest rates have been a disaster for those protesting against climate change. The increase in financial liquidity since autumn 2008 has allowed oil companies around the globe to borrow more and increase their daily oil production.

It is not just one or two crude oil producing companies which have been able to massively increase their debts, and also their daily oil production due to Quantitative Easing. Nearly every medium and major oil company (Canadian Natural Resources (CNRL), Tullow Oil, EOG resources, Chevron, BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Petrobras, Eni, Repsol, Rosneft, Inpex, Petronas, Suncor Energy, Cenovus Energy, Phillips and ONGC) now has more than double the net debt they had back in 2009.

The FED is just spewing out Dollars like confetti to fund natural resources companies to grow their production levels - it doesn't make any sense - at least not for the planet and the climate.

(Alliance News) - Fitch Ratings late Friday said it has affirmed Ireland's long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at A+ with a stable outlook.

Fitch noted that the Irish government had adopted a no-deal Brexit as a central assumption in its 2020 budget process back in October. However, since then, the risk of a no-deal Brexit by the UK, which would be harmful to Ireland, has been reduced, due to the withdrawal agreement that avoids a hard border between the Republic and Northern Ireland.

That agreement still needs approval by Westminster following the December 12 general election in the UK.

I'm very surprised that Fitch considers Irish debt to be a grade A investment when the Irish economy is almost completely dependent on importing oil from foreign countries, or on importing petrol/diesel from refineries in foreign countries.

There is almost no visibility on the security of future energy supply to the Irish economy. What are the people at Fitch smoking?

We need petrol costs reduced by 50% in the UK to get the economy moving again at a decent pace of business.

The yellow vest protests In France stem from the same problem (the cost of petrol/diesel being too high). The yellow vest protests erupted in November 2018 over fuel price hikes and the high cost of living. The demonstrations spiralled into a broader movement against President Emmanuel Macron and his economic reforms.

The protests have lost strength in recent months, going from tens of thousands of participants to just a few thousand, but the movement’s leaders called for people to turn out on Saturday to mark the first anniversary.

At its peak in late 2018, the movement grew to up to 300,000 people.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-protests-anniversary/paris-police-use-tear-gas-water-cannon-on-yellow-vest-protests-anniversary-idUKKBN1XQ0BL

Electric cars are appearing in Asia rather faster than is possible given the lithium/copper/steel/aluminium they require and the lack of technology in India/Indonesia regarding car production just a decade ago. Someone seems to be having a laugh at our expense by feeding us data which common sense tells us can't be true.

Also, one set of articles is saying that US oil production has tripled to over 12 million barrels per day, and that world oil production has increased virtually every year on record to over 100 million barrels per day (the current consensus figure): apart from 2005-2009 where it is debated whether or not global oil production increased/decreased.

Yet another set of articles is claiming that China is producing 2.4 million electric vehicles per year and their economy already has over 30 million electric vehicles out of a total number of vehicles of 220 million (a 15% market penetration rate of electric vehicles which five years ago wasn't meant to be achieved until 2025).

These two sets of articles can't really be squared with one another. If China has recently been producing 2.4 million electric vehicles per year then continual rises in global oil production would have completely crashed the oil price by now. And, therefore, this would have already put companies such as Apache Oil, Marathon Oil, Chesapeake Energy, EOG Resources, Anadarko Petroleum, Occidental, Devon Energy, and many other shale oil companies into bankruptcy (plus all of the smaller shale oil producers, which produce 5,000 - 100,000 barrels per day, > 50 companies).

The "many other shale oil companies" refers to the many other smaller ones ( > 50 separate shale oil companies) each producing less than 100,000 barrels of oil per day.

https://www.fool.com/investing/the-biggest-oil-producers-in-the-united-states.aspx

We need petrol costs reduced by 50% in the UK to get the economy moving again at a decent pace of business.

The yellow vest protests In France stem from the same problem (the cost of petrol/diesel being too high). The yellow vest protests erupted in November 2018 over fuel price hikes and the high cost of living. The demonstrations spiralled into a broader movement against President Emmanuel Macron and his economic reforms.

The protests have lost strength in recent months, going from tens of thousands of participants to just a few thousand, but the movement’s leaders called for people to turn out on Saturday to mark the first anniversary.

At its peak in late 2018, the movement grew to up to 300,000 people.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-protests-anniversary/paris-police-use-tear-gas-water-cannon-on-yellow-vest-protests-anniversary-idUKKBN1XQ0BL

The issue, Logitech, is that electric cars are appearing in Asia rather faster than is possible given the lithium/copper/steel/aluminium they require and the lack of technology in India/Indonesia regarding car production just a decade ago. Someone seems to be having a laugh at our expense by feeding us data which common sense tells us can't be true.

Also, one set of articles is saying that US oil production has tripled to over 12 million barrels per day, and that world oil production has increased virtually every year on record to over 100 million barrels per day (the current consensus figure): apart from 2005-2009 where it is debated whether or not global oil production increased/decreased.

Yet another set of articles is claiming that China is producing 2.4 million electric vehicles per year and their economy already has over 30 million electric vehicles out of a total number of vehicles of 220 million (a 15% market penetration rate of electric vehicles which five years ago wasn't meant to be achieved until 2025).

These two sets of articles can't really be squared with one another. If China has recently been producing 2.4 million electric vehicles per year then continual rises in global oil production would have completely crashed the oil price by now. And, therefore, this would have already put companies such as Apache Oil, Marathon Oil, Chesapeake Energy, EOG Resources, Anadarko Petroleum, Occidental, Devon Energy, and many other shale oil companies into bankruptcy (plus all of the smaller shale oil producers, which produce 5,000 - 100,000 barrels per day, > 50 companies).

"All of the smaller shale oil producers" refers to the many smaller ones producing less than 100,000 barrels of oil per day.

https://www.fool.com/investing/the-biggest-oil-producers-in-the-united-states.aspx

Promoting Woodford was awful. How can these people live with themselves for wishing other people to lose money through fraudulent activity by investment managers/professionals. Personally I think it's awful that anyone would wish anyone else to lose money. Money is not to be hoarded and neither to be used to disrupt the plans of others - experiences are the valuable things in life and there is probably far more commonality amongst us regarding enjoying a group outing to the beach rather than bickering who is going to pay for it - the solution is just to produce more of what we need - you can't outlaw working hard to make one's own life better without destroying the foundations of civilisation.

Without interest rates being cut to emergency low levels in late 2008/early 2009 where would your investment in this company have been? If interest rates had stayed at 6% from 2008-2018 then I'd have been surprised if the shares in this company would of ever recovered very much from the lows seen during the great financial crisis. I mean shares in most companies would not have recovered very strongly if interest rates had stayed at 6%. What does this say about the state of the economy in 2007 and the competence of economic management since. Emergency financial measures are still needed more than ten years after the credit crunch/financial crisis - does this suggest the financial mess in 2007 was the biggest every created in the whole of human history as there hasn't really been a recovery from it - just a dire attempt by politicians to justify to citizens why they should accept getting poorer, slashed benefits, and zero hours contracts.

Just a thought.

We need petrol costs reduced by 50% in the UK to get the economy moving again at a decent pace of business.

The yellow vest protests In France stem from the same problem (the cost of petrol/diesel being too high). The yellow vest protests erupted in November 2018 over fuel price hikes and the high cost of living. The demonstrations spiralled into a broader movement against President Emmanuel Macron and his economic reforms.

The protests have lost strength in recent months, going from tens of thousands of participants to just a few thousand, but the movement’s leaders called for people to turn out on Saturday to mark the first anniversary.

At its peak in late 2018, the movement grew to up to 300,000 people.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-protests-anniversary/paris-police-use-tear-gas-water-cannon-on-yellow-vest-protests-anniversary-idUKKBN1XQ0BL

We need petrol costs reduced by 50% in the UK to get the economy moving again at a decent pace of business.

The yellow vest protests In France stem from the same problem (the cost of petrol/diesel being too high). The yellow vest protests erupted in November 2018 over fuel price hikes and the high cost of living. The demonstrations spiralled into a broader movement against President Emmanuel Macron and his economic reforms.

The protests have lost strength in recent months, going from tens of thousands of participants to just a few thousand, but the movement’s leaders called for people to turn out on Saturday to mark the first anniversary.

At its peak in late 2018, the movement grew to up to 300,000 people.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-protests-anniversary/paris-police-use-tear-gas-water-cannon-on-yellow-vest-protests-anniversary-idUKKBN1XQ0BL

We need petrol costs reduced by 50% in the UK to get the economy moving again at a decent pace of business.

The yellow vest protests In France stem from the same problem (the cost of petrol/diesel being too high). The yellow vest protests erupted in November 2018 over fuel price hikes and the high cost of living. The demonstrations spiralled into a broader movement against President Emmanuel Macron and his economic reforms.

The protests have lost strength in recent months, going from tens of thousands of participants to just a few thousand, but the movement’s leaders called for people to turn out on Saturday to mark the first anniversary.

At its peak in late 2018, the movement grew to up to 300,000 people.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-protests-anniversary/paris-police-use-tear-gas-water-cannon-on-yellow-vest-protests-anniversary-idUKKBN1XQ0BL

We need petrol costs reduced by 50% in the UK to get the economy moving again at a decent pace of business.

The yellow vest protests In France stem from the same problem (the cost of petrol/diesel being too high). The yellow vest protests erupted in November 2018 over fuel price hikes and the high cost of living. The demonstrations spiralled into a broader movement against President Emmanuel Macron and his economic reforms.

The protests have lost strength in recent months, going from tens of thousands of participants to just a few thousand, but the movement’s leaders called for people to turn out on Saturday to mark the first anniversary.

At its peak in late 2018, the movement grew to up to 300,000 people.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-protests-anniversary/paris-police-use-tear-gas-water-cannon-on-yellow-vest-protests-anniversary-idUKKBN1XQ0BL

We need petrol costs reduced by 50% in the UK to get the economy moving again at a decent pace of business.

The yellow vest protests In France stem from the same problem (the cost of petrol/diesel being too high). The yellow vest protests erupted in November 2018 over fuel price hikes and the high cost of living. The demonstrations spiralled into a broader movement against President Emmanuel Macron and his economic reforms.

The protests have lost strength in recent months, going from tens of thousands of participants to just a few thousand, but the movement’s leaders called for people to turn out on Saturday to mark the first anniversary.

At its peak in late 2018, the movement grew to up to 300,000 people.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-protests-anniversary/paris-police-use-tear-gas-water-cannon-on-yellow-vest-protests-anniversary-idUKKBN1XQ0BL

The people who need to afford petrol to go to work have an even stronger point in my opinion. We need petrol costs reduced by 50% to get the economy moving again at a decent pace of business.

The yellow vest protests, named for the high-visibility jackets worn by demonstrators, erupted in November 2018 over fuel price hikes and the high cost of living. The demonstrations spiralled into a broader movement against President Emmanuel Macron and his economic reforms.

The protests have lost strength in recent months, going from tens of thousands of participants to just a few thousand, but the movement’s leaders called for people to turn out on Saturday to mark the first anniversary.

At its peak in late 2018, the movement grew to up to 300,000 people.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-protests-anniversary/paris-police-use-tear-gas-water-cannon-on-yellow-vest-protests-anniversary-idUKKBN1XQ0BL

Maintenance costs for SeaLion would be not so much different to the Catcher oilfield in the North Sea (wave heights are actually lower on average where Sea Lion is located and the air temperature mostly stays above freezing even during their winter).

OiI Service companies are offering better rates all the time (workers are paying the price of austerity sadly and technology is also lowering costs within the oil industry).

There is very little maintenance needed for a conventional oilfield using modern technology (unlike fracking in the Permian basin in the USA). Once Premier Oil have the 36 wells drilled (to fully exploit the entire field) and an FPSO set up to process the raw crude then the number of staff needed to maintain safe operations would be less than 200 (possibly level than 100, or even just a handful, as many oilfields around the globe are now unmanned/automated and require no staff for years on end).

By my calculations lets be realistic and assume an average crude price of $80 over the life of the field (the USA is going to have to stop exploiting Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Iran, and to start paying a better price for crude oil in the future).

Let's assume the field is slightly larger than currently stated (as most good quality oil fields tend to produce more than the initial estimate of their reserves) and will produce (along with its nearest neighbour) 1.25 billion barrels of oil from 2023-2040.

So the revenue from Sea Lion plus its nearest neighbour will be $100 Billion (i.e. $100,000,000,000).

The cost for initial development let's assume to be as much as double as those for the Catcher oilfield in the North Sea. It was $1.6 Billion for Catcher so let's assume $3.2 Billion as the joint costs for developing Sea Lion oilfield along with its nearest neighbour.

Let's assume 100 maintenance staff/engineers are needed as full time employees across the 17 year operating life of the field. Let's assume their average employment costs are $90,000 per annum. That equals $153 million.

Let's assume sundry costs and materials needed for well maintenance/ FPSO maintenance over the 17 years are a further $150 million per year. Which equals $2.55 Billion.

So from 2023-2040 the potential revenues from Sea Lion and its nearest neighbour are $100 Billion. The total costs are less than $6 Billion.

Hence there is $94 Billion in value to be extracted for the benefit of PMO's and RKH's shareholders by going ahead with oil production from the Falkland Islands. What "dark forces" are holding up this project when generally in life most people like to make money - and there is < $94 Billion to be made from turning the sea around the Falkland Islands into a safe-and-effective producer of hydrocarbons (to help alleviate poverty and also to contribute positively to the health and well-being of citizens around the globe - such as mechanising food production in Nigeria and Zimbabwe so they can earn more foreign currency from