Member Info for Love_You

Potentially what explains the lack of rationality in the share price is that traders have already paid out to the short bets when in fact the game was still in progress - not it looks like the long might win eventually but there is no money to pay them because they paid the shorters out too early whilst the game hadn't been decided …. only solution is more QE so the longs can be paid …. otherwise you end up with no money to pay the people whose opinions turned out to be right over the medium term just because the short-term people wanted to be paid out whilst they were ahead and before the game had finished. This is a problem for financial markets and is what gives them a bad name and makes many people think they are corrupt and makes it difficult to raise capital - because people are not taking a long-term enough view and are paying out to people as though they have "won" before the game was even at half-time.

Just sit tight Rob. You can justify holding this next year by the payment of an incipient dividend, with a policy of dividend growth going forwards based on the huge free cash-flow, relative to market cap, and the very small net debt, relative to EBITDA, that Genel will generate at current oil prices.

Also the gas will be needed by Europe eventually. By 2024 probably there is a fair chance the politics will be sorted so that Miran is developed and 10 Trillion Cubic Feet of piped gas can flow across Turkey to the main European pipeline infrastructure.

Hence Genel is in a good position right now, and has several aces up its sleeves (in terms of the gas projects for the medium to long-term future). However the current market cap is very low compared to the sector considering we have virtually no debt and producing at over 35,000 bopd, raising to 65,000 by 2022 hopefully. This company is valued less than Enquest who have net debt about 30 times as large as us ($1,750,000,000,000) compared to Genel's ($75,000,000). Also Enquest have nothing to show for this net debt compared to us (on a comparative basis) for they only have production of about 65,000 bopd which would require another round of capital investment (i.e. taking on even more net debt) to increase further. Meanwhile Genel can get up to 65,000bopd purely financed from free-cash flows by 2022 at current oil prices. And the decommissioning costs for Genel will be far lower over the next 20 years than for Enquest who have a heck of a lot of decommissioning to do in the difficult regulatory environment of the North Sea in the future ...just ask yourself is it cheaper to work on land in a developing economy where people are grateful for security/bread (aka Kurdistan) or is it cheaper to work in the North Sea where you have to pay for some desk pusher/paper pusher to write a 65 page health and safety document (at $80 an hour for their time) just to get permission for an engineer (who expects to be paid £75,000 a year) to turn a valve on a production platform. There is no comparison in the costs of doing business in Kurdistan compared to the North Sea - the North Sea has been overtaxed for years and still the government continues to drive away investment by not reviewing/lowering the tax rates. What are the incentives for equity holders to invest in the North Sea when Whitehall just doesn't get that it's an over-regulated, over-taxed industry and you can't expect this one industry to go on paying Whitehall's salaries when equity holders/bond holders are paying for pen pushers to live lavish lifestyles whilst the capital is being decimated on the (rational) financial markets.

Everyone knows it makes sense to develop Barryoe as you would have to be not evidence-based to believe it makes more sense to import oil and gas (which Ireland certainly does a lot of) than to develop the Barryoe field. And policymakers always pride themselves on being evidence-based. Hence if they are filibustering this development with making the construction permits a never-ending process then it must be because someone is paying them to filibuster the Barryoe development (as it is opposite to scientific logic not to develop Barryoe as importing oil and gas is way more carbon intensive than getting these resources from a shallow-water (easy to develop) field just 50kms off the South Irish coast). Hence who is short here - they are the people who must be passing brown envelopes stuffed with cash to the department of environmental regulation in order to filibuster/stall barryoe for as long as possible). It was a stupid decision to go short here in my opinion - hope the shorts just accept they were against the scientific evidence, forgot that policymakers pride themselves on being evidence based, hence shorts have not a leg to stand on. Hopefully we will wake up one morrning this share price will be at 250p per share, the shorts will pay up for their bad bets, the longs take their profit, the development goes ahead, and everyone's a winner (yes even the shorts because they will have learned a valuable lesson that it is stupid to take bets which for you to win mean an entire's country's citizens must end up poorer - which is what will be the case if Barryoe is not developed - this is like saying that you believe a few hundred people can get fantastically rich by robbing 4 million people - well normally the 4 million people will gang up on you and say you can't rob all of us just so you few hundred fat cats can get rich at our expense). Could come to violence in the end because people are behaving so irrationally - not advocating any other than peaceful protests myself to get this development given the go ahead - but people are people and who knows what the future holds.

Hi all,

Hydrogen as a fuel source is a great idea if people want to run lorries/buses/planes/heavy machinery/cars all on a zero emission fuel.

Batteries are not suitable for most of the above as they can barely power a car for 250 miles, never mind a truck or heavy machinery. Also batteries are not clean because you have to mine huge amounts of lithium and other metals/chemicals, and then fit every electric car with new batteries every 5-8 years: it's probably more polluting in total than just a standard combustion engine.

However, hydrogen LPG and/or ethanol are far greener and more practical solutions to finding a cleaner fuel source to keep the economies of the world moving at a decent rate and to keep people in their currently accustomed standard of living for the next 50-60 years..

Once a tank and fuel line has been designed that keep the hydrogen compressed, stable, safe, and delivers it safely to the combustion engine then the next task becomes how to produce vast quantities of hydrogen. I would suggest dedicated tidal power plants as you then have a lot of water on site as well to electrolyse to produce the hydrogen, also tidal power would be coastal - hence ideal for shipping and marketing it on global markets.

Hence hydrogen seems like the answer to me - now get on with it BP !!

The problem is the macro backdrop is befuddled by an irreconcilable economico-political divergence - for those who believe climate change is going to make the UK too hot to live in within the next 40 years then economic growth is to be thwarted by all possible means …. for those who believe climate change will be extremely mild, maybe 1.2 degrees at most over the next 60 years, then economic growth is probably an okay thing as long as it benefits themselves slightly more than the average person. And therein lies the difficulty for policymakers …. the macro levers are very blunt tools ... and yet subsidies are very unfair and distort the "natural shape" of the economy, and most probably undermine long-term competitiveness as well / have very negative long-term side-effects hence why I disagree with the large EU subsidies for farmers - food quality would definitely increase in the UK if instead of subsidies the money was spent on rewarding the farms producing the highest quality food products at the best possible prices. But with the government's "help to buy" scheme they also subsidised the housing market - in the long-term any economist will be able to provide countless examples of subsidies being unsustainable and in the end they often have to be changed to incentivise market forces rather than incentivising people who are land hoarding with no intention of doing anything productive with it (except for collecting subsidies on it or for setting up slightly unsavoury low pay, poor conditions, businesses).

The most likely explanation for the loss in equity value here seems to be that less people are moving house and there is less money to be made in fees by estate agents/letting agents.

What does it suggest to you?

The most likely explanation for the loss in equity value here seems to be that less people are moving house and there is less money to be made in fees by estate agents/letting agents.

So what does this say about the UK economy at a broader level - it says to me that there are less opportunities and people are having to stay put rather than seeking out relocations, career advancement, new opportunities etc.

What does it suggest to you?

House prices need to fall a lot - don't want to annoy anyone on here - but "a lot" means a good bit more than just 15-20%. Prices recovered far too strongly after 08/09 global financial crisis - to set the economy straight on a fundamental basis I personally think a house price correction of 60-70% is needed. I see houses on sale for £650,000 that are worth no more than £195,000 considering the local people's incomes.

And indeed, in ten years time it's not hard to imagine some cities becoming like Detroit - once the local economy is wrecked there is no bottom for house prices except for scrap value - and in some parts of the UK the local economy is totally wrecked by poor previous lending, poor education systems, poor council planning, and poor systems which make it hard to undo past financial wrongdoing - i.e. there were rewards for misbehaviour - so the lesson is clearly that to behave in a short-term and amoral way such as many bankers have done is completely acceptable in the eyes of the legal system who never want to get involved with punishing corporate crime (i.e. being bailed out by the Bank of England)..

House prices have diverged massively from fundamentals in many parts of the UK. Instead of 0.5% rates forever I think banks should fess up to their losses and just write their land values/derelict property, commercial property values down to what they are realistically worth assuming a realistic interest rate of 4.5% average for the next twenty years. Okay so they'd have to take 25-60% write downs but at least the country could go back to believing the bankers were sane instead of having poor mental health - and once you get a bit of respect back for banking then you can start to get some trust back in the economy and more people will join the pull towards creating functioning/inclusive/healthy local economies. In my opinion the fact the bailout has had to go on for a decade with no end in sight shows it's been a failure - the BoE just need to be honest - some debts will never be repaid - and these properties need to be sold on at a realistic value for the local area even if it means someone taking a 50% loss on their book value.

House prices need to fall a lot - don't want to annoy anyone on here - but "a lot" means a good bit more than just 15-20%. Prices recovered far too strongly after 08/09 global financial crisis - to set the economy straight on a fundamental basis I personally think a house price correction of 60-70% if needed. I see houses in sale for £650,000 that are worth no more than £195,000 if you were to look at the people's incomes in the local area who could afford to buy them.

And indeed, in ten years time it's not hard to imagine some cities becoming like Detroit - once the local economy is wrecked there is no bottom for house prices except for scrap value - and in some parts of the UK the local economy is totally wrecked by poor mental health, poor previous lending, poor education systems, and poor council planning.

House prices have diverged massively from fundamentals in many parts of the UK. Instead of 0.5% rates forever I think banks should fess up to their losses and just write their land values/derelict property, commercial property values down to what they are realistically worth assuming a realistic interest rate of 4.5% average for the next twenty years. Okay so they'd have to take 25-60% write downs but at least the country could go back to believing the bankers were sane instead of having poor mental health - and once you get a bit of respect back for banking then you can start to get some trust back in the economy and more people will join the pull towards creating functioning/inclusive/healthy local economies. In my opinion the fact the bailout has had to go on for a decade with no end in sight shows it's been a failure - the BoE just need to be honest - some debts will never be repaid - and these properties need to be sold on at a realistic value for the local area even if it means someone taking a 50% loss on their book value.

House prices need to fall a lot - don't want to annoy anyone on here - but "a lot" means a good bit more than just 15-20%. Prices recovered far too strongly after 08/09 global financial crisis - to set the economy straight on a fundamental basis I personally think a house price correction of 60-70% if needed. I see houses in sale for £650,000 that are worth no more than £195,000 if you were to look at the people's incomes in the local area who could afford to buy them.

And indeed, in ten years time it's not hard to imagine some cities becoming like Detroit - once the local economy is wrecked there is no bottom for house prices except for scrap value - and in some parts of the UK the local economy is totally wrecked by poor mental health, poor previous lending, poor education systems, and poor council planning.

I think the easiest option is just not to litter - it's difficult to get people to go about picking up/recycling other people's waste unless you pay them a decent wedge.

People avoid this probably because like you said whenever there was bad news previously there were no buyers willing to take even a calculated gamble … hence why we'd see 25% falls in a day and not 10% falls which is normally enough to attract a few people in to make a calculated gamble.

Hence I think it's the old adage that once enough stupidity has been committed it takes a stupidly long time for the market to come to trust that reasonable behaviour/decisions may prevail in the future …. hence without trust this is possibly still seen as risky …. how do we know PMO won't go back to the old ways of making stupid investments like Solan when they could have been getting on with SeaLion/spending that $2 Billion they wasted on Solan, on SeaLion instead - they could have started developing SeaLion in 2012 if they weren't all a bunch of pansies at PMO and too scared to cut commercial deals and just let the politics dick around as they always do....and just try to ignore them …. you will never get the Argies, the USA, and the UK to agree about the Falklands. However the Falklands are an independent self-governing group of islands, and it's in their own financial interests to get the oil flowing asap, currently PMO hold the license which they obtained through proper legal process and having paid legal tender for. That should be enough for them to stop dicking about and get on with SeaLion asap as Trump is crying out for more oil production, and when you tell him the project will supply another billion barrels onto global markets at a rate of 85,000 bopd then no doubt he would day - just do it and by the time I'm of office no one is going to make you undo all of those wells and remove all of those pipelines … after all PMO have done everything above board and within the current legal system which is all any company can do …. and the global economy is crying out for more oil.

Members, we all knew months/years ago about Zama success. It was posted often enough on here - people even told you that in the oil and gas business you will have to put up/ignore rumours about rights issues quite often. PMO management stated several times last year that finances were under control and debt was starting to fall faster than they had predicted/expected - they never gave any credibility to the rights issue rumours, even making an RNS to ell investors not to read anything into press speculation. Hence I hope you didn't sell at 60p when it was obvious people were trying to manipulate the share price to suit themselves - but often value does shine through if a company has a decent institutional backing from fund managers who have a bit of patience and who understand the oil industry is one of the slowest moving sectors you can invest in - hence five years is nothing - fund managers will be forecasting out until 2035 before deciding whether to buy into PMO or not.

Wow, those indicative production rates will make this a very easy and straightforward development in shallow water in an area with established infrastructure. Looks like PMO now has some proved-up acreage in one of the most hotly sought after pieces of O&G real estate anywhere in the world. Trouble is that often brings people wanting to buy-in on the cheap, and much corporate skulduggery to boot - let's just hope reasonable value, and reasonable compromise/behaviour, is what shines through for all PMO investors/stakeholders over the next few years out to 2024 when this company could/should be producing in excess of 200,000 bopd, diversified between oil and gas, in attractive locations for either tax/royalties or existing infrastructure, and with little net debt as a company.

Trouble is there is always a spanner gets thrown in the works by people who don't want to pay reasonable value for things ...perhaps because they can't accept other people had better insight/foresight than themselves. However one must say that is a major wanted to acquire PMO, considering that 200,000 bopd by 2024, with low production costs and newly developed long-life fields is pretty attractive even to Exxon, BP, Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell, Rosneft, Total, Eni etc, then what would fair value be - maybe £4.50 per share for a takeover next year - maybe £6.25 per share by 2024 if all the developments go to plan.

People do not be stupid …. if they want an upfront payment from you in order for you to work/get the work then just walk away …. do you want your children/grandchildren to be born into such a system whereby they have to remortgage the family assets just to find work/get contracts. This is already more than the thin end of the wedge and may not even be legal … just say no and let Kier come back in a couple of years with a better offer ...roads in UK won't last two more years with winter frosts … same for electricity network and hospitals .. government will have to pay up within a couple more years or face open rebellion of a large percentage of the citizens …. use your common sense and see where the power lies …. sit tight and don't work on bad terms/terms that you don't need to agree to …. it's the UK government that has made a right mess of the country's infrastructure and they are going to have to pay fairly to get things back on track ...shareholders should not be the ones taking losses due to government incompetence/lack of forward planning.

I doubt subcontractors will be daft enough to do unpaid work/work with more than 14-day payment terms in the UK.

They've seen what's happened at Capita, Serco, Interserve, Flybe, Debenhams, Afren, Patisserie Valerie, CNA, Lloyds, RBS, and more than 100 other companies listed on the London markets ….. there is probably more fraud/corruption taking place than honest work nowadays …. nearly all the roads in my area need surfacing and none have been resurfaced since 2005/06.

Anyway.... goodluck to all involved here … but I hope the small guy takes care of themselves …. don't do hundreds of thousands of pounds of work on delayed payment terms for anyone … plcs are no more reliable to work for than anyone else the way the UK is being run/governed these days.

Destruction of Uk society by people in positions of power without a social conscience or sense of normal ethics/morality.

Destruction of Uk society by banks, politicians and people in positions of power without a social conscience or sense of normal ethics/morality.

https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/somerset-news/two-bath-council-bosses-earned-2750851?utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=exchange - Two bath council bosses earned more than the PM last year.

What will be left in the UK in the future - I already feel late in realising that I am very late in realising I should have left the UK probably in 1987 or 1994, or at the very latest in 2002.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/job-loss-fears-reignited-analysts-warn-debenhams-closures-inevitable-053823895.html - Debenhams to close at least 50 stores in all likelihood.

Europe is a more socially responsible society, with better ethics/morals, and a better climate.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/tesco-axe-15000-jobs-across-15738225 - Tesco to axe 15,000 jobs

HSBC Bank closures - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4151710/HSBC-close-62-branches-Britain-year.html

https://www.which.co.uk/money/banking/switching-your-bank/bank-branch-closures-is-your-local-bank-closing-a28n44c8z0h5

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/hsbc-close-high-street-bank-branches-two-years-rbs-lloyds-halifax-bank-of-scotland-a7473396.html - HSBC closes a quarter of high street bank branches in two years

Bank closures fury as HSBC profits hit £8b. A PENSIONER group has launched a blistering attack against “fat cat” banks reaping huge profits while closing branches. The National Pensioners Convention (NPC) accused HSBC, the latest of the Big Four to declare a huge profit, of the “disenfranchisement of millions of older people”. - https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/999873/Pensioners-campaign-against-HSBC-bank-closures

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Destruction of Uk society by banks
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https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/somerset-news/two-bath-council-bosses-earned-2750851?utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=exchange - Two bath council bosses
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earned more than the PM last year.

What will be left in the UK in the future - I already feel late in realising that I am very late in realising I should have left the UK probably in 1987 or 1994, or at the very latest in 2002.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/job-loss-fears-reignited-analysts-warn-debenhams-closures-inevitable-053823895.html - Debenhams to close at least 50 stores in all likelihood.

Europe is a more socially responsible society, with better ethics/morals, and a better climate.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/tesco-axe-15000-jobs-across-15738225 - Tesco to axe 15,000 jobs

HSBC Bank closures - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4151710/HSBC-close-62-branches-Britain-year.html

https://www.which.co.uk/money/banking/switching-your-bank/bank-branch-closures-is-your-local-bank-closing-a28n44c8z0h5

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/hsbc-close-high-street-bank-branches-two-years-rbs-lloyds-halifax-bank-of-scotland-a7473396.html - HSBC closes a quarter of high street bank branches in two years

Bank closures fury as HSBC profits hit £8b
A PENSIONER group has launched a blistering attack against “fat cat” banks reaping huge profits while closing branches. The National Pensioners Convention (NPC) accused HSBC, the latest of the Big Four to declare a huge profit, of the “disenfranchisement of millions of older people”. - https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/999873/Pensioners-campaign-against-HSBC-bank-closures

https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/somerset-news/two-bath-council-bosses-earned-2750851?utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=exchange - Two bath council bosses earned more than the PM last year.

What will be left in the UK in the future - I already feel late in realising that I am very late in realising I should have left the UK probably in 1987 or 1994, or at the very latest in 2002.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/job-loss-fears-reignited-analysts-warn-debenhams-closures-inevitable-053823895.html - Debenhams to close at least 50 stores in all likelihood.

Europe is a more socially responsible society, with better ethics/morals, and a better climate.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/tesco-axe-15000-jobs-across-15738225 - Tesco to axe 15,000 jobs