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Thanks for reminding me about what can happen in India - it seems slightly worse than the irrational rules in the UK, which lead to white-collar crime amongst senior bankers/managers rarely being prosecuted.

However, if one looks at the Cairn share price objectively one can see that news is irrelevant - from 2014 it has moved in a zig-zag pattern, anyone buying in at the lower trend line of 150p would have had plenty of opportunities to make profits from the shares, the same for anyone selling at the gently rising upper trendline (from 203p in 2014 up to 200p in 2018).

Also, probably due to Cairn having fairly low production, it's been less affected by the 60% fall in oil prices from 2014-2016 than other oil companies with a similar market capitalisation.

Thanks for reminding me about what can happen in India - it seems slightly worse than the irrational rules in the UK, which lead to white-collar crime amongst senior bankers/managers rarely being prosecuted.

However, if one looks at the Cairn share price objectively one can see that news is irrelevant - from 2014 it has moved in a zig-zag pattern, anyone buying in at the lower trend line of 165p would have had plenty of opportunities to make profits from the shares, the same for anyone selling at the gently rising upper trendline of about 203-233p.

Historically factual data isn't relevant to the share price - what is relevant to the long-term share price is macros-trends. Oil was trending up from 2003-2011 and PMO's share price did the same. Oil trended strongly down from 2014-2016, and PMO's share price did exactly the same thing.

For a medium term investor (or long term) any factual new is as good as irrelevant. The price action, share price for PMO, is related far more to the crude oil price and the macro trends in the global oil market of expansion or reduction in global output compared to expansion/reduction in global demand. However, the latter point is just the same as whether the oil price rises or falls - because if global demand outstrips supply the crude oil prices should rise, and if the opposite is the case, the crude oil price should fall.

You can't say the PMO share price is news related because sanctioning Solan was announced in 2011, and although this was an obvious commercial/economic mistake, you could still sell your shares at the best price for a decade.

Hi AJamesW,

So what you are proposing is essentially a system that would enable individual households to produce enough hydrogen for their own domestic transportation and heating requirements. Is that correct?

Thanks LeeRex. However, plants already directly remove carbonfrom the atmosphere and turn it into oxygen - hence I would not invest my money in a company wanting to develop a new method to do what plants/trees already do.

However, if they are working on using solar power to split water into hydrogen/oxygen and then to develop a safe system to supply this hydrogen into combustion engines/heating systems then that does sound investible to me as it would enable people to have access to non-polluting forms of transport and heating.

Thanks LeeRex - how plants already directly remove carbon
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from the atmosphere and turn it into oxygen - hence I would not invest my money in a company wanting to develop a new method to do what plants/trees already do.

However, if they are working on using solar power to split water into hydrogen/oxygen and then to develop a safe system to supply this hydrogen into combustion engines/heating systems then that does sound investible to me as it would enable people to have access to non-polluting forms of transport and heating.

Thanks LeeRex - how plants already directly remove carbon from the atmosphere and turn it into oxygen - hence I would not invest my money in a company wanting to develop a new method to do what plants/trees already do.

However, if they are working on using solar power to split water into hydrogen/oxygen and then to develop a safe system to supply this hydrogen into combustion engines/heating systems then that does sound investible to me as it would enable people to have access to non-polluting forms of transport and heating.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-25/aramco-payments-behind-surge-in-quarterly-saudi-oil-revenue

Two weeks ago, Aramco raised $12 billion in its first bond sale, after receiving bids more than eight times that amount.

Anyway, with NOCs raising cash easier than ever it seems that the major oil producing countries will be set for another supply boom by 2024 at the latest. However I do wonder who is going to finance the Russian oil industry - but despite the media generally being negative about Russia they must be raising money fairly easily as there production has boomed to the highest levels ever, over 10.8 million barrels per day.

37.7p tax on LPG is a joke - USA is swimming in natural gas. It would be great for Europe to set up a trade deal where we export to the USA in return for imports of liquified gas from the Marcellus and Utica/Permian shale formations. However, the way to encourage uptake of usage of LPG is by making it cheap - and so yes, taxing it before it gains popularity/traction is certainly not helping the switch away from petrol/diesel. Also burning gas is a lot cleaner than burning petrol/diesel as you get just water and CO2/CO from burning gas/LPG, whilst from burning petrol/diesel you get a far large amount of soot, sulfoxides, and noxides.

However, the best shift of all would be to convert combustion engines/heating systems to hydrogen as burning this produces no carbon-related products at all but only water.

Two weeks ago, Aramco raised $12 billion in its first bond sale, after receiving bids more than eight times that amount.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-25/aramco-payments-behind-surge-in-quarterly-saudi-oil-revenue

It's just a pity for Enquest (and Tullow/PMO) that it is not an industrywide problem to raise debt to develop new fields - it seems to be largely specific to Enquest/the mid-sized oil companies. However, the majors and national oil companies are finding it easier to raise debt than ever before to develop new oil fields - perhaps the people protesting in London about fossil fuels should be protesting in Saudi Arabia as they produce 7 times as much oil per day as the UK does. So pointless protesting in London - they should go to Riyadh and protest against the oil industry to the Sheikhs who control it/own financial stakes in it.

Two weeks ago, Aramco raised $12 billion in its first bond sale, after receiving bids more than eight times that amount.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-25/aramco-payments-behind-surge-in-quarterly-saudi-oil-revenue

It's just a pity for PMO that it is not an industrywide problem to raise debt to develop new fields - it seems to be largely specific to PMO and other mid-sized oil companies. However, the majors and national oil companies are finding it easier to raise debt than ever before to develop new oil fields - perhaps the people protesting in London about fossil fuels should be protesting in Saudi Arabia as they produce 7 times as much oil per day as the UK does. So pointless protesting in London - they should go to Riyadh and protest against the oil industry to the Sheikhs who control it/own financial stakes in it.

Two weeks ago, Aramco raised $12 billion in its first bond sale, after receiving bids more than eight times that amount.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-25/aramco-payments-behind-surge-in-quarterly-saudi-oil-revenue

It's just a pity for PMO that it is not an industrywide problem to raise debt to develop new fields - it seems to be largely specific to PMO and other mid-sized oil companies. However, the majors and national oil companies are finding it easier to raise debt than ever before to develop new oil fields - perhaps the people protesting in London about fossil fuels should be protesting in Saudi Arabia as they produce 7 times as much oil per day as the UK does. So pointless protesting in London - they should go to Riyadh and protest against the oil industry to the Sheikhs who control it/own financial stakes in it.

So oil companies are not getting a fair price - as the price at the pumps is rising yet the price they receive for selling crude is falling. This is a financial state of affairs which means consumers are saying they want more oil, as they are prepared to pay £6 per gallon - and yet oil companies can't invest in new production because the price they are receiving for selling crude is too low to justify investment in new fields.

If you believe in efficient markets this price differentials seem inexplicable. Hence the best explanation I can come up with is that prices are being controlled by governments/The FED, and they are increasing petrol prices (to reduce demand) whilst not allowing the crude price to rise high enough to allow investment in new fields to be economically justified. Although investing in new oil fields would be eocnomically justified if the price being paid at the pumps was being fairly reflected in the global selling price of crude oil.

This is probably just a part of the secret government strategy/FED strategy to destroy the equity of shareholders in the oil and gas sector.

Look at UK prices compared to 2008.

Price of crude in 2008 - $100 per barrel
Price of petrol - £6 per gallon.

Price of crude in 2019 - $67 per barrel.
Price of petrol - £6 per gallon.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/25-retailers-already-announced-close-132806255.html

Oh yes, forgot to mention Ireland has having some very attractive undeveloped oil fields, and some very attractive exploration acreage. I hope Trump turns his attention to ensuring there is enough liquidity finance in the system to ensure that the "easy to extract, shallow water oil and gas" is extracted to benefit the lives of citizens around the globe. For really the greens want to leave it all undeveloped and yet make no mention of the number of lives this is ruining and the heartbreak and pain it is causing … the economic suffering inflicted by leaving the oil in the ground could be/would be worse than even if their predictions about climate change were true - which they are very unlikely to be as every tree/plant on Earth is breathing in CO2 and turning it back into pure oxygen. Also CO2 only makes up 0.4% of the atmosphere, so even if CO2 levels doubled it would still make up less than 1% of the atmosphere on Earth - it's hardly likely that such a tiny percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere could cause a catastrophic temperature event.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/25-retailers-already-announced-close-132806255.html

All of this is driven by the Greens who want to stop oil development and destroy the existing economic system. I for one hope that smaller, more nimble, oil firms are given extra capital/loans and can quickly move to develop some very economically attractive projects in Africa, The Falklands, Argentina, Alaska and Russia.

And then if oil production is maintained there is no need to shut down the "real economy" and put millions of people out of work.

I was asking for $300,000, not $300 million. What you thought I was asking for was actually a thousand times more than what I would actually want for my time to spend 6 months 100% focused solely on getting PVR the necessary regulatory approvals.

You say Lloyds is in a great place. The executive are but not the shareholders. To have generated a 6% per annum return since the 2009 capital raising the share price would now need to be about £1.20, and yet the current price is half that!

And the 2009 equity fundraising was at a massive discount to previous equity valuations and people were expecting outsized gains to make up for previous losses of equity value of between 50-90% losses? Yet all they have received from Lloyds in return for providing them with another £20+ Billion in new capital is yet more losses.

And despite all these financial losses to ordinary equity investors the UK economy continues to go down the plughole - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48063604

Why no revolt?

Due to shorting there is as much money being made by shorters from the destruction of equity value in the oil sector as there is money being lost by the longs. The money from the shorters is then recycled back into the oil production sector at lower equity prices....as those with the money demand a lower price to refund the company again with their profits from their previous shorting. Also sometimes these people will only provide new funding through bonds/convertible bonds as they want greater security as a new home for their profits which they made from their previous shorting.

So although all of this financial activity is losing a lot of people a lot of money .... it is doing nothing to remove capital from the oil and gas industry ... in fact it is providing more capital to the industry because where else could this industry access finance as cheaply from as from those people who previously made money by shorting the oil and gas sector?

I'd have been better off investing in a few Ferrari's than the equity here. That tells you that the green lobby are fools .... the more they protest the more oil companies seem to over-invest and destroy their own equity value. Anyone who thinks a reduction in oil production can be brought about using the power of "self-interested" shareholders/equity holders is wrong based on the past decades experiences. Shareholders/equity holders seem to have no power to prevent their capital being destroyed in the oil sector .... this sector is just fantastic at transferring wealth from the longs to the shorters who buys a few more Ferraris/Lamborghinis?Aston Martins/Bentleys with their profits.

Also it seems to me that many people don't understand how the market economy works .... due to shorting there is as much money being made by shorters from the destruction of equity value in the oil sector as there is money being lost by the longs. The money from the shorters is then recycled back into the oil production sector at lower equity prices....as those with the money demand a lower price to refund the company again with their profits from their previous shorting. Also sometimes these people will only provide new funding through bonds/convertible bonds as they want greater security as a new home for their profits which they made from their previous shorting.

So although all of this financial activity is losing a lot of people a lot of money .... it is doing nothing to remove capital from the oil and gas industry ... in fact it is providing more capital to the industry because where else could this industry access finance as cheaply from as from those people who previously made money by shorting the oil and gas sector?