Old ideas6 Jun 2019 16:51
I think investing is about how we reason about the future (based largely on the past as what other info do we have?)
Anyway, I'm struck by how the current situation seems to be repating 2008 in one or two aspects (admittedly there were lot more aspects to the crash of 2008). However, it seems to be the similarity in that everyone is only worrying about themselves and hence most businesses are looking to lay-off staff and find ways of paying them less. However, if all businesses do this then they will all suffer a simultaneous revenue decline which will be magnified by the multiplier effect. Hence they will all seek to cut costs even more and lay-off more employees. Ergo the following year they will find that revenues are far lower than expected for a second successive year.
Basically it's very easy to enter a negative eocnomic spiral - especially when so much of the indudtrial base has been closed down in the UK. There are more-and-more people only earning the minimum wage. Hence when a downturn hits who has £30,000 or £40,000 in the bank anymore to actually put down a 20% desposit on a house and truly support the market on a fundamental basis. Who actually has £50,000 or £60,000 to leverage fourfold so they can afford to buy-out a business from someone else for the book value of £250,000?