Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
Chesh, about that park bench, umm.....
Not everyone had access to inside trading during the drilling phase did they Campagna?
"You (ie. Campagna) and your book talking along with the ponytailed wonder boy are the ones who should be holding your heads in shame!"
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Bit rich coming from you isn't it Scotman?? If I remember rightly, wasn't it you that said of the high-yield bond sale:
“I’d say virtually zero chance of failure.” (25th July). And...
“I don't think anyone shorting expects the bond raise to fail.” (30th July)
No matter, all water under the bridge now...;-))
?
I don't think for a minute AAL were ever interested in becoming a "strategic partner" of SXX - this is their strategic decision to get back into the fertilizer market to green up their sphere of activity.
An acquisition of this nature for them doesn't even touch the sides.
Woolverstone I don't think we can conclude with any certainty from this that the "AA deal is what SXX wanted all the time".
But it does look like J-Curve was aware of a possible escape-chute for him to nicely transition into a senior corporate role in a blue-chip with a few million pocketed along the way - maybe explains why he was so cavalier with the car-crash high yield bond financing...
Just seen this too Chilting, looks like the AAL will be coming in next few days "according to sources" ;-). Question still is whether the there's a counter-bid to come in, which the "sources" say is unlikely. Well, at least this should put a floor under the 5.5p. I wonder how long the bid will be valid for before SXX have to accept or reject...
Shame Boris saw fit to help out Flybe shareholders but not SXX.
Sounds like a plan KOH, count me in in :-)
Trev79 I couldn't agree more with the points you made! Thumb from me :-(
Thanks for that KOH - no I hadn't seen it - has popped remarkably quickly, especially for something that is only a possibility!
I think we may well be blind-folded, gagged, tied and chucked into the crappy little lifeboat! Bags not rowing first.
Well put FosterE, very good luck to you with what the future holds, and sorry to see another LTH go, but I understand.
Yes IBAB I feel particularly for those here who lost big while being influenced by constant ramping of the happy clappy club.
I'm sure they had a quite galvanising effect on many financially inexperienced BB readers...
Yes Yellow, would rather go do with the ship while there's still a chance we can right her, rather than getting into a crappy little lifeboat and spend the next four months rowing across the south pacific to spend the rest of my days on a one-palm desert island - the equivalent of taking the 5.5p.
But I may well get forcibly thrown off the deck and into that crappy lifeboat on 6t Feb :-/
pps. I'm still fully invested.
As with KOH, am prepared to see this all the way to conclusion. Would rather take the (very real) chance of losing the lot while there's still a (slim??)chance of a bidding war, or Fraser surprising us all and pulling a strat investor out of the hat.
Though appreciate that would involve Fraser under-promising and over-delivering. Something to date he's tended to do in reverse ;-0
ps. to be clear, as I've said before I wouldn't expect ~£1/share to be achieved, as NPV calcs are open to vagaries based on the chosen discount rate (eg. the company's own unlevered 10%. Using the IMO more reliable valuation method of future EV/EBITDA and apply a construction/market risk to that, still get to a fair value of 60-70p per share; still a massive quantum of difference.
IBAB:
"AAL are buying it, they will then invest a couple of billion, that’s the important bit. You seem to be missing the source of that cash pile from your cunning plan. That is why the offer is 5.5p, the small matter of a multi billion investment."
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Your comment seems to suggest that 5.5p is a reasonable price for the business, based on your above logic? I really don't agree.
There is a gulf of difference between a market price and fair value, and at 5.5p, AA will be getting this as an absolute steal. They know this and Pearce has blithely said that in the public domain.
The present value of the 13 mtpa business case is be something like $10 billion - ie. £7.7 billion - based on the company forecast free cashflows. (Nb. This includes the impact of Gina's royalty deal).
Knock off the £237 million of current outstanding debt (ie. the convertible bonds), and even ignoring whatever cash is at hand, you get to a debt-free value of ~£7.5 billion for the equity.
Divide by 7 billion shares = >£1 per share. That would be a little closer to "fair value" at this stage of the project, if it was not a fire sale scenario. Somewhat more than 5.5p.
The single main reason why there is such a quantum of difference is because Fraser & Co are in the last-chance saloon, and AA know it.
Ed Clowes, if you're reading any this, the company is in these dire straits is because Fraser has mismanaged the project finance plan to this a Horlicks of a situation. He should have been fired many, many moons ago.
But he was very assured all along that first IPA would come through - it didn't - then he would sell the high-yield bond - he couldn't - and finally a strategic investor would brought on board - instead we are being sold out for a fraction of fair value.
Hang your head in shame Fraser.
Gladly Chesh, if you give me, say, a million quid a year :-/
15 Lives, Fraser came up with a financing structure/plan that he as it turned out he could not deliver. He screwed up. He could have come up with a plan that raised more equity (at a price that was somewhat more than 3.6 p per share!) to fund the shaft sink, successful delivery of which he could then raise sufficient debt at a sensible price, which would have been pre-agreed contingent on the shaft sink. But he didn't. Next!
I don't Aubery is simple at all. In fact I thought his take was very well put!
KOH, :-))
If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck...
Good to see This Is Money saw fit to put Fraser front-and-centre in the gang of boardroom villains for 2019, and rightly so...
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/comment/article-7846349/The-heroes-villains-Britains-boardrooms.html
Brilliant KOH, that made me laugh.
Think Harry's right, time for kip.