Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I can't help but wonder if it is because we are no longer relevant to the Frontera busniess in their eyes i.e. we serve no useful purpose to the company any longer. We could in fact just be another obstacle or potential court case against them.
I wonder too how do we know what proportion of the company we still own and what that value could be. As a listed comoany we held X shares and the value of the company was X, so it was easy
I have no idea how this works, so this is a legitimate question, not trying to put a downer on things for the sake if it. Anyone have experience of this in other private companies?
It seems like GOGC and SAOG have waited until Frontera have done all the exploration and spent as much money as they possibly could, only then for them to start the arbitration proceedings. Cheers then!
How do they know it's 80% UK nationals? Would it not be more like 80% are held by retail investors of the AIM. However , couldn't some of those investors actually be based abroad but have access to buy these shares, just as we can buy shares on foreign exchanges if we so choose?
Super intelligent and useful to have on the forum. Probably telling the truth a lot of the time, but often paltering as well. Apart from that infamous post, which was probably just a lie.
Another thought I have had is perhaps Frontera put in a field development plans that were accepted prior to November 2017 but then through the first half of 2018 they failed to meet the development plan. GOGC could then have believed they had grounds to claim back any area where development had not occurred, hence them starting arbitration in July 18. That is just a guess and would seem a bit harsh, but they really have never been friends of Frontera, hence the need for lobbying. I'm just trying to figure out how they go from giving permits for drilling, the last in November 2017 for T45, to trying to take back 99% of the block from us. Perhaps they caught wind of the Hope case and saw weakness so commenced proceedings when they knew Frontera would be on the ropes. All just guesses.
Apologies. The last sentence was pasted in the wrong place and should have been removed. Wish there was an edit function!
GOGC's 2018 financial statement alleges Frontera has breached the exploration phase of the PSA by not relinquishing 99% of the Block 12 contract area. The PSA states "The term of the Block 12 PSA comprises an exploration phase during which the Group’s Georgia subsidiary, Frontera Georgia, will designate those areas of Block 12 from which it intends to develop and produce oil. The exploration phase expires on 13 November 2017. Save for any areas within Block 12 that Frontera Georgia has committed to develop and produce pursuant to the Block 12 PSA (“Development Areas”), Frontera Georgia must relinquish its rights to Block 12 at the end of this exploration phase. The website states Block 12 is 5060 km2, so I think I am right in saying that GOGC believe Frontera only have rights to develop and hence continue to explore (as per above PSA extract above) a 50km2 area. If prior to Nov 2017 Frontera only included a 50km2 area to be developed I would be amazed, especially seeming as Taribani is 80km2 (potentially 800km2) and MtsareKhevi is 950km2.
I took the following from an old NSA field evaluation report, and it stated for an exploration area to become a delopment area a field needed to be declared commercial and a field development plan for the field needed to be put in and approved by a relevant authority. I find it hard to believe Frontera could have only asked for a 50km2 development area, so could it be that the relevant authority did not approve the field development plan apart from for a 50km area (perhaps an area of current producing wells only), otherwise how have GOGC come to the conclusion that 99% of the contract area needs to be relinquished?
The historic claim by GOGC isn't making sense to me, unless Frontera massively messed up the declaration of commerciality and/or messed up the field development plan and it was not approved. Perhaps Frontera's case was strong in respect to the relinquishment but weak in respect to the asset transfer validity. Something I don't understand very well. As others have suggested, perhaps Frontera have got around this and by going 50/50 on the asset with GOGC and now just have to figure who pays what fees and what area of block 12 they do hand back (seems GOGC and SAOG are keen to put it out for tender again).
Another concern, that Zaza dismissed in the road shows, the PSA is 25 years from 1997. The tems we can see state "The Block 12 PSA can be extended for the producing life of any Development Areas, up to a maximum period of five years". That would take the maximum PSA to 2027. As people have suggested, perhaps they have got around this and the relinquishment claim and the claim by GOGC about the asset move to Frr US by going 50/50 on the asset with GOGC and now just have to figure who pays fees and the final terms of any new agreement in the final hearing in February.
BTW, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all the long term holders. Thanks to all the sleuths and the clever boffins that try to interpret all the legal stuff. I am sure 90% of us would not have any clue what might be going on here if it wasn't for you.
Surely 2020 is our year, the make or break year!
Thanks Bugsy, If we are to be rewarded with anything like the 3.5b we have claimed for, I don't understand how that would tie in with the 50/50 company split and the 70m as suggested from the article. If there is any truth in that article it would suggest to me Frontera are the ones walking away badly out of pocket. I guess that could still be considered a massive win if they aren't walking away with nothing.
After GOGC and SAOG started the arbitration case against Frontera ,Frontera put in a counter claim for $3.5 billion against GOGC for unaccounted income from Georgia.
Can anyone make sense of this enormous counter claim and the sketchy details we're getting from this article? I would say it firmly dispels the "it could be 70M or could be 70B" guess. More likely, as seems to be the case with Hope and the fiduciary case, it was just a hard ball tactic. The majority of the legal stuff confuses the hell out of me though.
I don't think OMF could be the meek? Could the Georgians be the meek though? Or maybe SN and Zaza. Surely the shareholders are too.
I was on it at about 4pm ish today, so it has gone down after then.
Yeah, you're probably right. The two potential positives I tried to clutch at from the original article ie. not many people and all older have been blown out of the water. I am guessing that at some point the news anchor said Frontera refused to comment, or could not be contacted!
The only positive I can clutch at is there aren't many of them and they do look older. Could they be caught in the cross fire of the liquidation process. Office staff or non production roles that aren't needed.
As you said earlier, they would only get the interest from the personal guarantees. Better than nothing I guess. Perhaps Hope, SN and Zaza didn't anticipate just how messy this was going to get, as it seems like only GOGC are going to win at this rate.
Working! The very early retirement seems to be a distant dream.
Hi TSBS. So much specualtion here about how things could be positive, despite us appearing to be in the midst of a gargantuan ***t storm. I get the feeling this won't end well for us though, even if Frontera somehow weather the storm. When ever we've speculated what could be going on during the many news blackouts over the last several years, no matter how rosy we thought it could be or how bad we thought it could be, it was never actually rosy and was always far worse than we thought it could be. Maybe this time, for the first time, it will be different. Doesn't't seem very likely though. Would love to be way off the mark.
Another thought i have had is that if Hope does successfully get SN and Zaza to cough up from their own personal wealth, will Zaza and SN then somehow restructure the company by saying they have effectively loaned the company money. I have no idea how this works for a private company.
Are the personal guarantees for the interest or the entire debt owed to outrider? Just wondering if FRR does go under trying to get through all these current court cases whether Hope might gain his interest money from SN and Zaza personal wealth, but then lose the rest of the debt owed to outrider.
My thoughts too. Losing such important members of the team at a time when all court cases are ongoing but arbitration has concluded doesn't appear good. Didn't Frontera put in a counter claim for loss of earnings in relation to the Arbitration though? Could this explain why they've still been chasing the Ukranian dream?