Member Info for LookingHot

Todays price is no guide on the future price which will be multiples in a few months imho 300-350p

Given typical market volatility, there is a material risk that Faron’s market capitalisation could dip below €200 million when additional funds are required. Acting promptly to minimise this uncertainty is therefore prudent. Upon a successful €40 million raise, the market cap would remain above €200 million, securing funding through the Phase III interim readout—assuming any outstanding HCM bonds are redeemed as needed.

Current market terms for a potential partnership would likely include:

• Costs shared on a 50/50 basis

• A $50 million upfront payment

• Up to $600 million in milestone payments

• 10 % royalties

Potential partners are not modelling a > 60 % Likelihood of Approval (LoA); their assumptions are conservatively lower. Given today’s market environment, superior deal terms are unlikely, while small biotech firms line up seeking collaborations.

Consequently, Faron’s valuation expectations and those of potential partners may not align—another rationale for self-funding Phase III. Once interim data are available, visibility will improve, transforming forecasting from art into science as uncertainty diminishes.

Following a successful interim readout, the intrinsic value created would allow Faron to negotiate substantially enhanced terms—potentially doubling every financial parameter—while partner interest would surge. Shareholders would realise significant value creation and wealth generation.

A partnership agreement alone does not generate value at this stage; it is simply one financing avenue among many. Last year, in conjunction with the offering, Faron indicated that it would require partner resources to execute Phase III. Over the past year, however, Faron’s market valuation has increased by more than 2.5×, meaning the company now possesses the capacity to self-fund Phase III through equity raise(s).

The cash cost of Phase III remains constant in euros, whether funded externally or internally. Yet the true cost can also be expressed in terms of dilution. Last summer, approximately €30 million was raised at a roughly 30 % discount to TERP—a highly successful outcome.

Today, a comparable transaction securing €40 million in gross proceeds could almost certainly be executed at a €1.50 subscription price, which—assuming a €2.30 share price—equates to an approximate 40 % discount to TERP. This would necessitate issuing roughly 27 million new shares

News coming