Member Info for LONGWAIT

(Not sure what Hungarians have to do with this)

Here is a telling comparison of some of the latest figures:

Germany: Total cases: 32,991 ; Total deaths: 159

UK: Total cases: 8,077 ; Total deaths: 422

In spite of the doubts expressed about the reliability of China's figures, the fact that they may not have recorded all cases and have been locking up people trying to find out what's been going on doesn't mean the trends implied by their figures should be doubted.

Furthermore, South Korea, a country without China's authoritarian tradition, has been recovering along with China.

Their respective recovery rates are now 90 percent and 40 percent.
It seems that the number of new cases in SK has actually been rising, but not as fast as the number of recoveries.

Days ago, Apple announced that it would be re-opening all its stores in China, and the authorities have announced that Wuhan will return to normal on 8 April.

Neither of these things would have happened if the Chinese were simply fiddling their figures.

I think we need to wait a while longer, PTS, before we can say that the epidemic has peaked in Italy.
For three days, it has failed to make a new high, but it could tomorrow!
It's also too early, IMO, to say whether the epidemic in the UK is going to be as bad as in Italy.
The Government needed to act earlier and photographs of people on underground trains are not encouraging, but we'll have to wait and see.
The Germans seem to be doing well, but have a low recovery rate, presumably because they are latecomers.
Spain could overtake China tomorrow in terms of total fatalities, and in the light of reports that the disease is more widespread in Spain than in Italy, it is far from certain that by the time this is over, Italy will have fared worse than Spain.
It's interesting that all the figures (cases, new cases, deaths, new deaths) are roughly double in Spain what they are in France.
One thing I am confident of is that by the end of this summer, the epidemic - even in countries where it is now raging - will have peaked.

I would never call Petercraigscot over on UKOG a twit, but I think I came close to calling him a liar, and my post was removed.

He wrote five days ago, when HUR was 9.64p:
'Hurricane dropped to a more reasonable MCAP, but I still see them going under within 6 months.'

Then, in reply to my deleted reply, in which I mentioned the fact that HUR were producing at 20,000 bopd, he wrote:
'Long wait. I stand by my prediction for HUR. ... Offshore production, even at the rate you state, which is wrong btw, is not enough to keep them afloat, pardon the pun.'

According to the RNS:
'Oil production from the Lancaster EPS continues in line with previous updates, at approximately 20,000 barrels of oil per day.'

I'll put it as politely as I can: I believe what's in the RNSs, rather than what Petercraigcsot or Lemon Fool or the late-departed TSD have / have had to say.

Have you noticed how, when the price is rising strongly, the doomsters are nowhere to be seen?

As said before: how on earth could the Saudis invite the Russians to participate in a conference about economic measures to deal with the Corona Virus Pandemic, without discussing the oil price?

As I said, John, I was actually looking at live prices when the SP bottomed at 7.15p.
The screen did its best to get me to buy more (my last purchase had been at just under 11p) but I thought I might as well wait for 5p.
If TSD had still been around, he would probably have been predicting 1p.
If a deal is done soon to limit oil production, 7.15p will be the bottom, but even if takes months, it will be difficult to make a new bottom - though not impossible.
Brent is $28.60, which suggests traders are nervous that some kind of compromise will be agreed.

Wuhan doctor Li Wenliang died of the coronavirus. Li had sent a message to a group of medical school alumni, warning them about a mysterious new illness. But local police reprimanded and silenced him.
In addition to Li and Xu, at least three citizen journalists have disappeared or were arrested after sharing information about the outbreak on social media.

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-coronavirus-whistleblowers-speak-out-vanish-2020-2

Fang Bin and Chen Qiushi were both determined to share what they could about the crisis, reporting from Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province, and sending what they found out into the world.
As a result, they racked up thousands of views on their videos. But their channels have now gone quiet, and those who followed them online fear they may have disappeared for good.

Wuhan businessman Fang Bin began posting videos about the outbreak to "report on the actual situation here", promising to "do his best" in the reporting.
... on 1 February he filmed a video which got people to sit up and take notice. The clip, which has been viewed almost 200,000 times, appears to show eight corpses piled in a minibus outside a hospital in Wuhan.
Fang alleges that police barged into his home on that same night and interrogated him about his videos. He was taken away, warned, but eventually released.
But on 9 February, he posted a 13-second video with the words "all people revolt - hand the power of the government back to the people".
After that, the account went silent.

Chen Qiushi, a former human rights lawyer turned video journalist, created a YouTube account which now has some 400,000 subscribers.
In late January he decided to travel to Wuhan to report on the worsening situation.
He visited different hospitals in Wuhan, looking at the conditions and speaking to patients.
Chen knew that this was putting him at risk. He told the BBC's John Sudworth earlier this month that he was unsure how long he would be able to continue. ... his mother ... said he had gone missing ...
His friend Xu Xiaodong later alleged in a YouTube video that he had been forcibly quarantined.

It is perhaps not surprising that, according to one Human Rights Watch (HRW) researcher, the authorities are currently "equally, if not more, concerned with silencing criticism as with containing the spread of the virus".
One doctor, Li Wenliang, was warned not to spread "false comments" after raising the alarm about the virus earlier in December. He eventually caught the virus and died.
His death triggered an unprecedented wave of anger, sparking an online uprising. Chinese authorities were stunned, and reacted by attempting to censor every critical comment about Dr Li's death.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51486106

I read last night about someone arguing with the authorities in China or Russia about the true figures, and can't remember which outbreak it was, but I think he disappeared before the virus did.

According to the latest figures, the recovery rate in China is 90 percent and in South Korea 39 percent.
The fatalities figure in Italy has fallen for two straight days, but that could be 'profit-taking.'
When you look at the graph, it behaves just like a share price.

I was going to point that out myself, in case munchbox has been relying on LSE for prices.
Starting a few days ago, they stop updating some time during the afternoon.
According to both the Stock Exchange and Hargreaves Lansdown, the closing price was: bid 522 / offer 540, which gives a mid-price of 531p.

I don't see how RRE can be 'on a steady road to bankruptcy' when it has 2075p per share net cash, but Saudi Arabia could be on a steady path to oblivion.

Long-term rock-bottom oil prices would mean the end of the House of Sa'ud, a revolution in Saudi Arabia, a possible oil embargo if an anti-American regime replaces it, and possibly sky-high oil prices, which wouldn't do RRE's balance sheet any harm.

There have been 17 cases per million population in Hungary, Daltry, and so far no resurrections.

That's exactly what I had in mind, Double.
An expert predicts 600 million cases in China; an expert predicted $270 oil just months before it hit thirty plus dollars, and so on.

By the way, if anyone thinks the Chinese were making it up the other day when they claimed that 45 out of 46 new cases were of people returning from abroad, today Singapore reports similarly:
Singapore has confirmed 54 new cases of Covid-19, the overwhelming majority of whom had returned to the Asian city state from overseas, the Straits Times reports.

https://nationalpost.com/pmn/health-pmn/china-scrambles-to-curb-rise-in-imported-coronavirus-cases-2

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/23/coronavirus-live-updates-uk-us-italy-germany-europe-outbreak-cases-meetings-bans-update-latest-news

The irony is that China exported the virus and now seems to be importing it.
Even so, it is obvious that the epidemic peaked in China several weeks ago and the recovery rate (not to be confused with the resurrection rate) is about to breach 90 percent.

Although you wouldn't guess it from reading most reports, something similar will happen in European countries before the end of summer.

Germany: signs exponential growth curve of new infections levelling off for first time

(source: Guardian article cited above)

Yes, Daltry - the original does seem to imply that physical resurrection is possible - a belief that many of Trump's supporters obviously share.

Sorry, but my AIM-induced dementia has obviously worsened.

I actually thought I had posted my last post, then realised it hadn't registered, and that I hadn't saved a copy of its last sentence, retyped it, posted it and have just realised that, unlike the original, it contains a bad mistake.

It should read:

According to official figures, there have been 81,000 cases and almost ninety percent have recovered.

18 February 2020
When will the coronavirus outbreak peak?

On 11 February, Zhong Nanshan, a prominent Chinese physician leading a panel of experts helping to control the outbreak, said that the coronavirus will possibly peak by the end of February.

Sebastian Funk, a statistician ... estimates that at the peak around a million people, about 10% of Wuhan's population, will be infected.

Hiroshi Nishiura, an epidemiologist at Hokkaido University in Sapporo, Japan ... says he has used a model that estimates that the outbreak will peak sometime between late March and late May. At this point, he says, up to 2.3 million cases will be diagnosed in a single day. In total, he estimates that between 550 million and 650 million people across China will be infected, roughly 40% of the country’s population. Nishiura says that about half of those people will show symptoms.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00361-5

According to official figures, 81,000 have died and almost ninety percent have recovered.

Where did you read about the meeting, Maqsood?

I read that a few hours ago, DU.

'According to Fitch Ratings, Saudi Arabia needs oil prices at $91 a barrel in 2020 to balance its budget, all else being equal.'

What Trump said - about Russia's economy being all about oil - is incorrect; his comment applies to SA, unless he imagines the Saudi economy can rely on date exports.
Just wonder how long this self-inflicted madness will continue - first the Chinese messing about with bats and then the Saudis giving oil away.

Thanks for that elucidation, Double.
I'm sure if I have mis-spelled it, I shall be receiving a notice from the Grammar Police Spelling Department.
According to Google Translate, 'fraccare' means 'to break down' in Corsican, although I'm not sure that adds to your clarification.
In the meantime, the gloom about CV, frackers, MBS, OPEC, the oil price and oil sector continues.
I can't see this intensity lasting more than a few more months.
Just wonder how much damage will have been done by the time it is over.

I suppose I had better not mention the Reichstag Fire!

Latest news is that the Democrats are blocking Trump's recovery package on the ground that it is too favourable to corporations, and the 'frackers' (I hope I have spelled that correctly) are 'blocking' a deal between USA and OPEC.
An expert said that without a deal, oil is heading for $10-15, especially with much of the world closing down.
I have read that India is on the verge of total 'lockdown'.
That's understandable when you consider that eight people have died and there are three cases per ten million people.

By the way, I read AJPT's 1914-1945 book when I was a student.