Member Info for LONGWAIT

Right you are, Double.

It's rather like Jesus having been born in a stable - it has caught on.

In any case, as has been pointed out, it may have been a luxury garden shed.

Thanks once again, Miss Dosh.

Very interesting.

That's interesting, Noix.

You mean it may just be a case of locating the oil?

I didn't realize that Graben is a geological term in English.

I thought it was just a German word, meaning 'ditch' or 'graves' .

With thanks and appreciation to WhichWayNow, Millais and Miss Dosh.

I agree with the recommendation, but not the scepticism.

One might have been sceptical about a business in a garden shed becoming a multi-billion pound company, but it has.

Dr Trice has consistently confounded the skeptics and I won't join them unless and until they are proven right.

I don't understand why so many posters think Verbier won't be developed.

25 mmboe has not, as far as I am aware, ever been considered to be an insignificant amount - and that's still only a minimum figure.

At today’s 80p share price, Jersey oil has a Market Cap of £17.5m. Its approximate cash balance today equates to around 50p per share, so the market currently attributes around £7m, or 30p per share to the firms 18pc share of the P2170 Licence.

If Verbier proves to be commercially viable then this valuation is extremely low. Even at the lower estimate of gross recoverable resource at 25MM barrels of oil equivalent (boe), the previously stated Net Present Value (NPV10) for Verbier is £31.2m net to Jersey Oil. Add in the Cortina and Meribel assets at a similiarly low estimate and the NPV10 totals £83.7m for the licence.

Everything rests on the commercial viability of the license. Clearly if fresh data from the appraisal well determines this as a much less attractive proposition for Equinor then the share price will likely see further pressure towards its cash valuation.

https://www.valuethemarkets.com/2019/04/05/where-is-support-for-jersey-oil-and-gas-share-price-after-verbier-drill-miss-jog/

Arden Partners estimates Jersey has current net cash of £12.5m (57p a share), and places a risked value of $37m (125p a share) on Verbier and $25m on Cortina (85p), suggesting Jersey’s shares are trading on less than half risked net asset value after its share price was marked down more than 50 per cent on the Verbier drilling news. In the circumstances, I would recommend awaiting further news on Jersey’s development plans. All is not lost. Hold.

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/comment/2019/04/03/jersey-drilling-disappoints/

The share price will likely move decisively up or down, depending on whether the market likes the next RNS or not.

I don't see what charts have to do with it.

If the news is bad (which I don't expect) then it could fall to 10 p, but I'm beginning to think it's unlikely that the company would be sold for less than the current valuation.

Bon nuit, Double.

I gave your 22:51 post +1 for being the funniest post of the day.

Unfortunately, I am not permitted to give bonus points.

As I said the other day, Wilbert, and not for the first time, eventually the share price will breach 68 p and move skywards.

That will happen, I think, when the traders are overwhelmed by buying pressure and the trading ranges disappear - or are reset at much higher levels.

Yes, Mike.

I made the same point the other day when the price was slightly higher.

I made a similar point on the HUR BB when the price fell to 24 p (it has now recovered to 45) and they had cash of about 20 p per share.

That meant that a potential 10 bn barrels were valued as about 4 p per share.

I know it's disgusting that a company can be rated so derisorily, but I did the only thing I could: I bought some more.

(with apologies for predictive text errors in original post)

Yes, Mike.

I made the same point the other day when the price was slightly higher.

I also made the point on the HUR BB when the price features to 24 p (it has now recovered to 45) and they had cash of about 20 p perhaps share.

That meant that a potential 10 bn barrels were valued as about 4 p per Sha.

I know it's disgusting that a company can be rated so derisorily, but I did the only thing I could: I bought some more.

There's been some discussion in the past about whether fields are connected.

I thought it would be important, but other(s) said connectivity would never be proven and that the company would be sold first.

Just after 19:00 in the latest interview, RT says that within the next 18 months we will have 'proof that it (GWA) is one big structure...'

I was so busy correcting English and mathematics that I didn't even notice what the topic was.

Coincidentally, while checking Malcy's Blog only minutes ago, I noticed the interview.

My first thought was, 'why on earth is the share price only 45 p?'

I then noticed that our friends in France have been asking the same question.

Manipulation is the name of the AIM game.

Arden Partners estimates Jersey has current net cash of £12.5m (57p a share), and places a risked value of $37m (125p a share) on Verbier and $25m on Cortina (85p), suggesting Jersey’s shares are trading on less than half risked net asset value after its share price was marked down more than 50 per cent on the Verbier drilling news. In the circumstances, I would recommend awaiting further news on Jersey’s development plans. All is not lost. Hold.

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/comment/2019/04/03/jersey-drilling-disappoints/

Justin read your post, Noix.

We don't know what will happen, but if there is another sidetrack success or improved estimates, don't surprised if investors are prepared to commit murder to get hold of the shares they currently say belong in the bin.

Well, Madcrann, taking your last post first, it seems that there is plenty to play for but uncertainty about funding - but when did the uncertainty arise?

In your previous post, you seem to be making a similar point to mine: we're all on the Titanic and the best option is to look for a lifeboat.

Another option would be to ride out what may be a storm and see what the end result is.

Yes, Madcrann, and also I pointed out the other day, according to one analyst JOG still has 57 p per share in cash.

But is my point abou recalculation of the previous high valid?

Correction: '...we ARE still being told....'

First of all, I really don't know how to value this share.

When the price was about 200 p or lower a few months back, and I was talking about it having come down so far from 400 p, someone pointed out that that was before the placing.

We then worked out that the high had really been about 300 p, but looking at it again, since the number of shares was more than doubled by the placing and share offer, doesn't that mean that the high was less than 200 p?

In that case, wasn't the pricing of the share offer rather high?

People are saying that the management are incompetent.
Is that because of the RNS or because of the share price fall?

The market action does seem to suggest a duster, yet we aren't still being told there is a minimum of 25 mmboe, the same minimum that led to a rise to 399 p!

You have got to ask yourself whether a rise from a low of 30 to 400 made sense and a fall to 75 makes sense.

The market is still behaving like a manic depressive.

Whenever a company announces a disappointing drill result, there is a massacre.

It seems to me that there are two options: don't invest in oil exploration because bad drill results are in the majority and therefore you are facing eternal annihilation, or take advantage of the collapsing prices to buy cheaply.

If you think the company is going bust, then you have to answer the following question: are you going to think the same thing about every company that has a bad result?

I've just been through something similar with SOU and the jury is still out.

You mean 88 percent undervalued, TSP!