RE: ...Black Wednesday 16th Sept16 Sep 2022 21:33
''Are UK exports underperforming? The relatively robust performance of UK exports to the EU has prompted some Remainer observers to switch tack and claim instead that UK exports are underperforming some hypothetical level rather than collapsing. This is already a climbdown from their previous position but is nevertheless also very contentious. We have written elsewhere about the questionable statistical methods used to produce these analyses but a simple comparison of UK exports to the EU and EU industrial output since 2007 shows clearly how weak this argument is.
First, there is no clear upward trend in UK exports to the EU. UK exports to the EU at the end of 2019 were actually slightly lower than in early 2007 – so UK exports in February 2022 are in line with the basically flat trend of the last fifteen years. Second, eurozone industrial output has also shown a flat long-term trend – in January 2022, it was actually slightly lower than at the start of 2007 . The two things are obviously closely related – it is going to be hard to consistently grow exports in a market that is broadly stagnant (note many UK goods exports to the EU are inputs into EU industry).
If we do want to play the relative performance game, a comparison of UK export performance in the French market (the UK’s closest neighbour) with that of Germany is instructive. In February, the index levels of UK and German sales into France were almost identical relative to the levels of early 2019 . There is no sign of underperformance by UK exports here relative to those of the EU’s biggest exporter (and presumably German exports to France have not been affected by Brexit!).''
https://www.briefingsforbritain.co.uk/busting-the-myths-about-post-brexit-uk-trade/
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