Member Info for Longtermview24

Careful secrets, TDT has a thin skin.....but I agree with you.

Exactly KOH. And now we see from the Liason Group cancellation that conveniently they're now very limited on what the can say under the Takeover Code regs.

Bunch of bs.

Accelerated equity raise. Can Fraser, Potts, Scrimshaw, Staley, anyone, give a reason why not? Not saying it'll be successful, but what's to lose. Not much at this stage. And plenty to gain.

Hi Long. I have already posted on here that my£30k is ready to go towards a fund raise. I wonder how many others would commit @4p. I would truly like this to happen and see JPM and friends get a slapped face. It is a long shot but not impossible to raise £500mil to carry on and de risk to a position that funding can be obtained at a reasonable rate. One caveat would be that CF and gang are not on the BODs and JPM are replaced as financial advisers. My bet would be that ICL would come on board. Now wouldnt that be a turn round. Speedy

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Institutions would need to do the heavy lifting, but I wouldn't underestimate the amount of PI money available after the recent sell off. Many didn't have spare to participate before, but having cashed out there's money available and if you knew you could get back in and save the project and your investment, even at more than 50% dilution, that's still a viable proposition to me - and with a good multi bag return over the next decade.

I'd wouldn't be against Fraser staying on, but he would need better help around him. The schoolboy Staley should be the first to go. A CFO he is not.

10bn shares at 4p = $520M and gives 17Bn shares in issue.

At 13 mta production this could be worth $17bn. Easy math. Worst case at 13 mta and net profit of 1BN it should be worth $10 bn.

Any which way you cut it, that's more than 5.5p.

Hi Long. Add to that Ginas deal. Still cheap for them with the planning, present construction, TORPs and a LOM at £???billions/year for100 yrs. Makes the great Mr Ponzi look like a benefactor. JPM Never ever lose. Speedy

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Agreed.

What's stopping them throwing together a hail mary public offering. Could be done before Feb 5 when the AA offer is due, if they wanted to. Quite a few of have ready cash available to invest (having sold up!). That would be a lovely twist. If PI's who sold at 5-5.5p, got back in and helped rescued this project with a raise at 4p!

Jiffy -
Lt24,

'The 5.5p offer stinks. I admit it might represent what has been invested in $ into the ground '

More like $1.1 Bn, listen to the AA podcast.

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Understood but some of that money was bond money that needs to be repaid and will be a debt taken on by any buyer, so in effect AAL are paying more than 5.5p per share as they take on all the debt/bonds.

The 5.5p offer stinks. I admit it might represent what has been invested in $ into the ground but there is more to value than that. It doesn't value the sweat equity/time that has gone into years of planning and engineering, the TORPS, the resource itself. The value will be unlocked by accessing the resource and, we're told, this can be achieved with a further spend of $600M - or less.

Before we give away the resource and upside, surely a last throw of the dice would be a DPO - Direct Public Offering - of shares at 4 or 5p to raise the $600M, perhaps even with an accelerated book build to II's. If they raise the money then we can go on. If they don't then AAL or others can put in a takeover bid. A DPO or accelerated book build can be set up in days - we still have 10 weeks. The DPO can be all or nothing. The money can be held in escrow. If the $600M isn't raised the money is returned to investors (just like the recent CB money).

If I saw the BOD were looking at a way - even if it's a long shot - to keep this in LTH hands then I'd be satisfied that they did all they could. If the DPO/raise failed, then at least we would know the BOD gave it their best shot. At the moment I feel cheated and that this AAL deal is shady.

Ed,

It's not just all about the fact that investors are hurting thats bad enough, its more about how and why we are at such a close point to running out of cash, silence from the company, leaks before issue of RNS's, and a strong suspicion that no real effort has been made to raise sufficient cash to complete the high risk elements first, ie the Shafts. If that funding was available the rest would follow in good time to complete the mine.

Suspicions have also been raised imo by this article, just read between the lines I'm sure you will spot them.

https://www.evernote.com/shard/s30/client/snv?fbclid=IwAR1umKClUD96wR5RXurka5HwL2YTCjE4rFv9Cc2d9ZKNnLPG4G3ROUTqoKM¬eGuid=17df2b28-896c-4510-b037-73fdeff7e1f1¬eKey=89d80db6fd8958a46058e550d26034f5&sn=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.evernote.com%2Fshard%2Fs30%2Fsh%2F17df2b28-896c-4510-b037-73fdeff7e1f1%2F89d80db6fd8958a46058e550d26034f5&title=Sirius%2BMinerals%2Bwill%2Bbe%2Ba%2Bbright%2Bstar%2Bfor%2Bus%252C%2Bsays%2BAnglo%2BAmerican%2B%257C%2BBusiness%2B%257C%2BThe%2BTimes

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The article in the link should be read by everyone - AAL have been keeping an eye on this for not just months but years. It stinks. And it's so Brazen - AAL boss saying - (I'm paraphrasing) you don't often get an opportunity to pick up an asset like this for peanuts...once in a lifetime opportunity.

The plod, never mind the FCA should be knocking on Frasers door and asking him questions. It stinks. Stitch up. raser doesn't need to go back to Oz, he needs to go to HMP Full Sutton.

possibly.

IBAB says he's just keeping it real

37 posts today and going. Keeping it real? Maybe? But why keeping it repetitive? Why the need to spam the board?

No need to reply, it'll be a disingenuous response.

Agenda - yes? What it is? Less clear. Working for a short, AAL? Who knows. But you have an agenda and it's not to save the souls or the wallets of this BB.

Ok I understand the problem with potential underwriting it but is there a price at which it it could be "safely" issued? We are looking for a few hundred mill to derisk a couple of elements for goodness sake and not for the billions to fully complete the whole mine. Apparently there were willing buyers for the bonds before JPM withdrawn the offer. Can't they be given more and some additional equity introduced??? Come on, it doesn't add up. We are no longer binded by JPM. We can issue anything at any rate to anybody now. Double the rates on bonds if you have to, raise it to a ridiculous level if you have to. Give more royalties away. That mine once built will pay it all off easily anyway. They will generate billions for the next 100 years.

I really don't get, giving up and selling 100% of the project for a 5p seem like ridiculously low proposition even including all the risks involved.

GLA
tictacktoe

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Agreed. Fraser is selling us down the river to his Aussie mates. Not sure why the II's aren't up in arms (and IBAB don't give me the "it's only loose change to the big boys" nonsense - BTW IBAB seems to be getting a bit nervous and posting a lot of replies to anyone posting that they think there is a chink of light in the form of the ongoing strategic review. )

TDT - you haven't called Sirius correctly. The mine will go ahead, most likely with new owners, unfortunately for us LTH's.

And you're lucky that BB's are anonymous. Your threats could otherwise land you in more bother than simply having them taken down. Some friendly advice. Careful what you say and who you say it to.

That last RNS looks like M/L opening and increasing short positions.....do they know something we dont???? "probably"

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Read it more closely - ML on behalf of their client AAL. AAL who haven't even made an offer, but might, and it might be at 5.5p or it might be lower and SXX expect to be able to recommend it

And all of those if buts and maybes caused the spike from 3.5p to 5.5p and now the bandits are making out on the margins and, as I said in my last post, this is all in full view and legit.

Its an effing disgrace start to finish.

TDT

"A tier one asset, as AAL have described it."

for Anglo American the price is probably less than their copoerate coffee budget for the year. They're just as likely to si on this for several year than sell it for buttons than they are to develop it. The bean counters at Anglo may have a view on this proposal that's very far removed from what you'd expect in a sane rational world.

TDT

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TDT

You've always had an axe to grind against this project and a desire to see if fail. While sholders have been shafted, alas your agenda has also been shafted as the project is nailed on to proceed. If you don't believe me, listen to the AAL investor call. The link was posted yesterday.

You're a piece of pondlife. There's no one who has been quite as duplicitous as you. Your last post (copied above) speaks volumes in that regard.

I see posters mentioning this project as a scam, pipe dream, fantasy and so on. It's none of those things. It's real, tangible and will be realized. The investment was - and is - a solid proposition. A tier one asset, as AAL have described it.

Where we've come unstuck is that Fraser effed up the financing. He tried to go it alone when a partner at an earlier stage would've reduced the risk profile and he tried to do the debt part all at once, on the heels of an increase in cap-ex. Had he tried to raise more equity, offered more convertibles well before everyone could see the money was running dry, we would be sitting on an investment that was - and will - throw off "a wall of cash" in a few years time.

Remember - all the equity raises at 20p and 15 p were oversubscribed.

Was Fraser (not sholders) greedy and tried to minimize dilution for his 123M holding, was he over confident on the amount of debt he could raise, were we unlucky that the debt market tightened at the wrong time? Probably all of the above , but the buck stops with the CEO. That's why he gets his big fat salary and free bonus shares. His background was financing. It was reasonable to expect he could raise the finance.

He effed it up pure and simple.

IBAB - Morgan stanley appear to be working on behalf of 'managing the market' for AAL

Usual collection of trades in shares and CFD's long and shorts.

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I think you mean manipulating the market.

Stinks just like the rest of this debacle. I truly hope this ruins Fraser. Sadly I think not.

IBAB

"significant part' is not the same as ALL. Part is part even 99% is part. 100% is WHOLE That's misleading and inaccurate.

Significant means- sufficiently great or important to be worthy of attention; noteworthy.

I'd say most folk would regard 25% a significant, so is 50%, even 75%. That would still leave 25% in shareholders hands. 25% of today's value would see most/all sh's recover their losses if they held to 13mta production. That's how I thought this might end up - worst case scenario.

Fraser has robbed holders with his incompetence (or worse). He's left it too late for a reasonable plan B. He's a disgrace.

And Fraser couldn't persuade any of them to dig deeper - pennies for some of them as IBAB has pointed out.
Chris Fraser should change his name to Chris Failure. ****.

Given everything that's happened, if Norges or Qataris did want to invest more in this mine would they be happy giving it to CF to manage or would they rather a big experienced miner like AAL were running the show? They can always put more money in AAL to maintain their exposure.

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Fair point. Frasers credibility is shot IMO at this point. But AAL has many other assets that could perform well or badly. Poly4 will be a small part of their business, so the return under AAL will not be proportionate to that if it was still 100% owned by an independent SXX

IBAB, FWIW I factored in the 5.5p. They paid 15p so losing 10p on 230M shares and 150M shares (Qatar and Norge) so stung for minus #23M and $15M respectively. I wonder what changed in the short time since they made the investment? Same question for Scrimshaw, surely you don't put a six figure sum into the raise just for show.

Not all the TORPS were grade A covenants but ADM were and Wilmar aren't too shabby and Cibra have been around the block.

No sense in a post mortem, but many here shouldn't feel bad about their losses. There was (is) a compelling investment here (and this has been confirmed by AAL). The guy in charge made the wrong calls at the wrong times.