Member Info for LongInvestor

These treasury companies look to be where it's all happening, the 'new miners' for this bull?

Janover was renamed to DeFi Development Corp (DFDV) and is up 233% since I started this thread, did anyone jump in? :-)

Others on my watchlist are;

CEP - I want to get in on this when it turns to XXI - its currently trading at 3.4 x it's HODL value.

DN3/MTPLF - Metaplanet is Japan's version of MSTR, I've requested it be added to my trading platform, missed out on the 100% rise yesterday

ALTBG - The Blockchain Group, they currently have 620 BTC and trading at 4.1 x it's HODL

KDLY - Merging with Nakamoto to become BTC Treasury

ASST - Planning to merge with Strive to become BTC Treasury

SWC - Needs to move to a better exchange for better liquidity (watching but not looking to buy)

I keep hoping for a big drop on the above stocks to get an entry point that makes sense, currently they seem to being pumped too high, I'd like a mNAV's on par with MSTR but they are all double that currently :( - I suspect the lack of action in MSTR the last few days is due to money going into these alternate treasuries?

Anyone watching any other treasury companies I may have missed?

I guess that depends on what you expect? :) - Currently, based upon the ARBK price (which continued to trade), I expect ARB to open around 2.9p, so it would be up approx 17% (all things being equal). Any bad news in the results / RNS will wipe that out.

What are you expecting ?

I am heavily invested in MSTR and always looking to diversify. CEP will soon become XXI, will be the 3rd largest holder of BTC…

Doing my DD, it appears that CEP is currently about 3.4x NAV - MSTR is 1.9 - what am I missing for CEP to warrant that multiple?

Gut feeling is retail hasn’t worked out the reality and jumping on the FOMO… I’m expecting (hoping) there is a drop to similar multiples as MSTR (which would mean CEP at ~$24

Anyone have any thoughts / predictions for CEP/XXI ?

It looks like they will have a second, larger pool available at Helios too, left over after moving away from immersion cooling to support AI/HPC :)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gnc6gxEWsAAQPvQ?format=jpg&name=large

"What u expecting there?" - More of the same voltility? Huge swings and what appears to be a pattern, with lows of the day around 16-17:30 before swinging back up...

Wasn't suggesting it as a a long term investment, hence the title of "trading" ;-)

JNVR looks tempting to trade, anyone else looking / trading / holding them?

Up 1,300% in a week... AI / Real estate / SOL / Crypto treasury strategy / Former Kraken executives.... however, a ~$73m market cap with a ~$2.7m EBITDA is raising valuation concerns (says Grok)

"I think bitcoin still has $125k in it this cycle but got to say though $83K bitcoin is damn disappointing given the amount bought by MSTR and the tailwind of a US supported administration. It never did become the safe haven asset some predicted."

The bull in me wonders if this recent drop in BTC is a very well orchastrated play for some 'players' to obtain BTC at a better price. When you think about it, many leaders want all the 'bad news' out at the start of their term, if US wants BTC as a strategic reserve, it doesn't want to be pumping the price whilst obtaining it, more the opposite!?

I've not lost faith in BTC price increases still this cycle, not sure what the top will be but there's too many $billions now invested by the 'players' for BTC (and the likes of MSTR) to crash.

"The launch of American Bitcoin follows the strategic contribution of substantially all of Hut 8’s ASIC miners to and in exchange for a majority interest in American Data Centers, Inc., a company formed by a group of investors including Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. In connection with the transaction, American Data Centers, Inc. was subsequently renamed and relaunched as American Bitcoin."

Interesting development, wonder how will this affect things? - "..to become the world’s largest, most efficient pure-play miner while building a robust strategic Bitcoin reserve" - so lots of dilution and/or moving to MSTR finance model?

Source: https://hut8.com/2025/03/31/hut-8-and-eric-trump-launch-american-bitcoin-to-set-a-new-standard-in-bitcoin-mining/

Here's a post from @henkvaness (AI Expert) on X that I saw, to give some balance on the euphoria:

"Let's start with their headline-grabbing claim that they trained their AI model for just $5 million - a bargain price that's about as believable as a timeshare salesman telling you "this deal is only available today." Because - and this is important - DeepSeek actually has access to over 50,000 Hopper GPUs. That's like claiming you made a gourmet meal for five dollars while conveniently forgetting to mention you have full access to Gordon Ramsay's kitchen and his entire staff.

They're touting technological innovations that are about as groundbreaking as putting wheels on luggage in 2024. Their "reduced precision" technique? That's like bragging about discovering you can save money by buying things on sale. Everyone's doing it! Their multi-token processing? That's the AI equivalent of saying you've invented a revolutionary new sandwich called "putting cheese between two pieces of bread."

And then there's the claim this is "scary" for NVIDIA. Yes, because the company that's essentially become the landlord of the AI gold rush is trembling at the thought of slightly more efficient models. That makes about as much sense as believing Netflix is worried about the local Blockbuster making a comeback.

Look, I'm not saying DeepSeek isn't doing interesting work. They absolutely are. But claiming they're single-handedly democratizing AI is like saying you're solving world hunger by posting your grandmother's lasagna recipe online. Yes, it's a contribution, but let's maintain some perspective here.

And finally, there's their "open source" claims, which come with more asterisks than a pharmaceutical ad's side effects. Their most advanced models are about as "open" as a speakeasy with a bouncer named Thor.

The bottom line is this: DeepSeek's work is noteworthy, but it's not the AI revolution. It's more like an AI evolution - interesting and potentially valuable, but not quite the industry-shattering breakthrough that will have NVIDIA executives panic-selling their GPU stockpiles on eBay."

Towards the end of the day yesterday, I was reading along these lines (from various senior industry people)

- DeepSeek didn't report on the full training costs, such as how many times previously they attempted and failed.

- DeepSeek builds upon and leverages the $Billions spent on other AI systems, without that expenditure, DS wouldn't exist. So, it could be argued DS is actually the MOST EXPENSIVE AI model yet produced.

- US laws bans the export of the latest technology to China, however, it's reported that DeekSeek dev actually has access to 50,000 H100 GPUs (Nvidia's latest generation) i.e. significant cost.

- Wulf's CFO was on a podcast last night (pre-arranged before DS announcement), he didn't seem that phased by the announcement or that it would affect their HPC plans going forward.

- Whilst it maybe 'OpenSource', people have said the most advanced models are not fully shared so giving more doubts about the claims.

No idea if any of the above is true/false, however, personally, I think it's a great development which will help move AI and the mag 7 forward, I think the market has over reacted and will recover.

All the miners that pivoted to HPC are taking a real beating today on this news, maybe good that Argo haven’t been able to pivot! :)

It’s enviable that there will be advances in this technology, after all, it’s “AI” so should be able to help itself advance and get more efficient too. This won’t be the last time it happens IMV…

Looking on the positive side, once the dust has settled, the other AI companies will learn from DeepSeek and progress their own platforms faster / more, especially if they have more powerful hardware to leverage.

I tried it this morning and was a bit slower than ChatGPT, now the news is more widespread, it seems to be unable to cope with the demand… I guess it’s highlighting their solution still needs more compute than they currently have… let’s see how it unfolds this week.

“ sold my crypto in order to find a leveraged option-obviously not Argo.Looking for somewhere to put crypto gains in the crypto space.”

If your looking for leveraged BTC, MSTR is good bet. Saylor has been recently pictured with Trump… he’s found a way, and is leading, to leverage increasing his BTC balance sheet. MSTR is 2x BTC. Miners are a gamble, DAGB reduces the risk somewhat, however, they all have various risks over and above BTC.

Sorry to hear you're down ~£40k palatino, I can see why you're looking for positives! - To remind me of what can happen, I kept 500 ARB shares in my portfolio at an average cost of 92.14p !!

I sold majority of my ARB at 130p+ back in '21, the majority of my crypto holding is now in MSTR and I'm much happier. I have some smaller positions in DAGB, WULF, CLSK & MARA, just in case...

My take... Chippas has jumped as he know's what coming and doesn't want to be the sitting CEO with the reputation that gives if Argo goes into administration.

From original RNS re his performance shares: "If the performance conditions are not satisfied at particular vesting dates, but are subsequently satisfied, the relevant fraction of PSUs will vest."

He was awarded 2,850,000 ADR's subject to performance conditions in total, he received equiv of 237,500 ADR's in Nov 24, so there is still a possibility that he could receive further shares before he departs, if performance criteria is met (max 2,612,500 ADRs or ~£1.2m).

Today will be 30 trading days that ARBK closing below $1, so breaking Nasdaq listing rules. Argo will be officially notified today / tommorow and will have to issue a RNS, likely announcing a share consolidation to increase the price... Will they update about the rigs too? Either way, I expect to see RNS by Monday.

Nasdaq will also publish to their non-compliance site five business days after notification:

https://listingcenter.nasdaq.com/noncompliantcompanylist.aspx

In order to see how easy/difficult it's going to be to put the S19J Pro's back to being air-cooled, I found a couple of videos:

This one shows a teardown https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGcdN6hndM8 - take note of the rear of the fans at 7:16 then take a look at 2:13 on inside a tank at Helios here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CVuOvAolVXo it shows the fanless case as per the first video then at 2:16 it shows Perry with the external power supplies (you can see those black power cables entering the tank at 2:13)

So, based on these videos, it looks like the 3 x main boards and the case they fit in is what's submerged, the PSU and top board/wiring is outside of the tanks and all needs to be reassembled.

Reassembling and testing 23,619 of these is going to take some considerable time and/or manpower. I can't remember the timescales to install these originally, but I would guess we're talking in the region of 6-9 months to get them back operational again?

“Might be waiting for Nasdaq notice of 30 days under $1 to get it all done in one shot.”

ARBK closed below $1 starting 2nd Dec, 30 trading days takes us to 15th Jan…

I was just googling to find the wording on what has to be reported and came across this article:

https://investingstrategy.co.uk/financial-news/regulatory-news-service-what-it-is-and-what-its-not/

Based on the information in there, "...any INSIDE INFORMATION pertinent to that company" has to be reported if it "be price sensitive to the company’s share price if it were to be made generally available" unless it would "prejudice its legitimate interests".

So, if Argo had found a home for it's rigs, it has to report it "within a reasonably rapid timeframe".... but hasn't. It therefore looks like they haven't found a home and are waiting for some kind of sale to be agreed or other info before announcement so as not to "prejudice its legitimate interests"?

Congrats on a nice pick, it's been on my watchlist... What's the cause of today's 20% spike? (Quick looks shows possible short covering?)

"I catched Nice amount at 4.2p :)"

Lol - so, lets see, Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, TradingView etc all say the 52 week low is 4.3p, so you bought shares below the 52 week low, wow, "great timing" - did you sell your last lot at 282p in Feb 21? :-)