RE: Corona4 Apr 2020 14:44
Pelle, it's understandable that scientists would look at the China experience for answers but the political decisions that will need to be made over the coming weeks are huge. I would expect UK politicians to rely on their own data, and measure policy against local behaviours before the lockdown, the response to the lockdown and the relaxations appropriate to the needs of the UK people and economy.
The level of the current lockdown will be debated - too much, not enough, too late, whatever - for weeks, months and years to come. But I don't think the government will face much criticism for current policy decisions because of the unknown nature of the virus and the need to protect the NHS against these unknowns is understood by most.
That is the easy part.
Although the UK lockdown is due for review 12th/13th April, in practice it is under constant review. I hope that a snap decision isn't taken this week to extend it to say the end April, following the US example, but rather consideration is given to data that is now coming in fast.
PHE, a UK health body, has started highly sensitive antibody testing of the population. I'd guess these surveys will assess urban, non-urban and reginal variations. They will have results in days but I don't expect these to be published as they come in. Encouraging or not, the early release of data could undermine current lockdown rules.
The ONS are assessing the number of deaths within England and Wales to determine the extent of the coronavirus impact. The reported Coronavirus deaths are deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. To be clear, those are deaths with COVID not strictly deaths due to COVID. There is an opinion which has been voiced by advisors to government that in large part Coronavirus has brought forward deaths that would have occurred in a relatively short time, creating a temporary surge. The answer to this questions will be largely known within a couple of weeks
The policy decisions taken in response to these assessments and others will be more critically judged as the marginal consequences will be hugely significant.
The OPEC++ discussions - will they, won't they - has no doubt lifted the downward pressure on the oil price, and as posts here point out, significant supply cuts will be implemented, whether agreed or not. The trouble with political fixes is that it delays or suspends the market response which ultimately is needed to approach fixing the problem. It creates too much noise for the likes of Enquest with a wide portfolio of assets to make the right decisions. GKA and The Dons hubs are probably cash flow negative today, but both could support future growth - Eagle, Ythan infill and perhaps most importantly the outcome of the 32nd licencing awards. The announcement of the awards in due this quarter.
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