Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Lookbothways you beat me to it on the practical example… I feel compelled to share here a current scenario for those not in the game and who can’t understand the current challenges.
Over the last 3.5 years I have been involved with the procurement of a complete topside for an offshore oil and gas production facility. Right now due to an issue with the original equipment we have two pieces of high pressure equipment on order that are on the critical path for first oil once the asset is on-field. Involved in these two units, I count 24 sub-vendors. A complex web of raw material supply and processing before even reaching the main actuator and valve vendors respectively. Each of these components has their own challenges with capacity and the rising cost of raw materials and energy, before even considering the squeeze on the main vendors. The current problem pieces are not the typical complex instruments etc, it’s a piece of sheet metal welded into a cylinder in Italy. At the moment we can offer 5X the original price for that piece of sub-work and we cannot accelerate the delivery by doing so. Bear in mind the whole supply chain is aware this is for a ‘super-major’ end user, not a minnow like PRD.
Point of sharing is not to excuse PRD if they ordered later than hinted (suspect so from their wordings in previous RNS which were very careful - ‘sourced’ does not mean purchased ;)’ but to explain to all that the landscape right now is genuinely difficult for even the largest companies with the deepest pockets.
PS Jimmy glad you’re in, for me that is a very significant endorsement.
PPS. Lonny if you’re reading and need a bloke with a vested interest to take some holiday from the day job and go to get these wellheads finished let me know
Jimmy, once you’ve had time to appraise yourself of some of the information, given your normal measured analytical style on the Char assets, would appreciate your take on the following taken from RNS 19th July, particularly the references to Anchois.
“MOU-2 will test the core of the Moulouya Fan in a shelf slope position where seismic signatures indicate the presence of major channel systems. The well will provisionally be drilled to 1,500 metres TVD KB and is expected to encounter the top of the Moulouya Fan between 1,130 and 1,200 metres TVD KB. At this location the well will be targeting a gross potential Moulouya Fan reservoir sequence of 110 metres. The potential for multiple gas-water contacts may exist as is the case in the Anchois discovery and appraisal wells. However at this well location there is little seismic evidence for compartmentalisation of the target reservoir section.
4
The well has been designed to test an independent structural closure within the Moulouya Fan covering up to 11 sq. km., twice the area of the original Anchois discovery well. Vertical relief on this closure is approximately 75 metres and is sufficient to test for lowest known gas in the 110 metre gross potential reservoir interval. Gas deeper than structural closure will help establish the validity of a single stratigraphic trap covering up to 30km² defined by the seismic amplitude signature tested in MOU-1.“
Ford, I admire you’re relentless optimism, but didn’t you tell this BB only weeks ago you have zero oil and gas industry knowledge and 3 years investing experience? It’s a bit rich to ask someone if they understand the fundamentals…
Nicidemus, I don’t take any exception to your confidence, but to add some balance we must consider the circumstances in which the greens would be adopting LNG storage/importation. Ultimately that will be to deliver security of supply. Therefore it stands to reason that your preferred project selection would include a company with a track record and a scale of existing revenue generation etc that offers security. As it is, the PRD LNG side of things does have track record via Hoegh units. Wish PRD all the best in Ireland as I do in Morocco which could also in my opinion have an influence on PRD’s ability to be a serious contender with Mag Mell.
Cheers Keith - I recalled the terminology being used related to Maghreb pipeline, example here - https://egyptoil-gas.com/news/onhym-sound-energy-sign-tie-in-agreement-for-gas-maghreb-europe-pipeline/
Hi Keith, unsure if your question was genuine or tongue in cheek, but in case anyone is trying to decipher, I read:
- tie in agreement - separate deal with OHNYM to access pipeline infrastructure
- ‘SVR’ - star valley rig
Could be wrong of course…
Keith, you touch on an important point for me. Various interesting posts on what success looks like. Hard to say on the numbers, but it will be very telling whether there is OHNYM backing on any success case RNS. In order to generate the SP numbers being talked about here, the RNS needs to be unequivocal… reminder below of what OHNYM did for CHAR…
“ Mrs Amina Benkhadra, General Director Office National des Hydrocarbures et des Mines, commented:
"My congratulations to Chariot and ONHYM teams for the successful Anchois drilling operations. I also would like to thank the Moroccan authorities for their support and help in achieving the drilling operations efficiently despite the Covid-19 pandemic restrictions. We look forward to working with Chariot in order to quickly progress the gas development."
It’s all too easy to emotionalise and oversimplify this move as a signal that JV/farm out negotiations failed. All too easy again to assume that is because due dil was completed and wasn’t attractive.
We know from previous RNS that the proposed terms of the farm out/JV were bullish in terms of contribution to past costs etc. What if the two ‘candidates’ never got past the initial commercial discussions into a sixty day period of exclusive technical due diligence? We know from his engagement with Conoco next door that Paul doesn’t let folk have a peep without commitment.
Wording from RNS
“versus delaying to complete a pre-drill extended farmout process that might result in significant pre-drill project dilution in our entire licence area.”
No one outside the company knows for sure, but I wouldn’t read this placing as a confirmation the technical data is unattractive, or was even seen by potential ‘candidates’ for farm-in.
I don’t want to weigh in too heavily, but for me there is a clear difference between GRH’s postings and that of many others that are bullish PRD and also talk about historic success, not to be named as it is outside the interest of a positive BB.
1) the man’s identity is clearly known and verifiable.
2) the subject matter discussed in so called ‘bragging’ is also verifiable. Some of the financial instruments created are in everyday usage by many on the BB. Why demean these type of gamechanging innovations, or deny a little glory for some genuine life achievements of which someone is rightly proud. That is particularly true when there is a direct link to the commercial structures discussed in the RNS.
MEM, you post to suit your agenda, recently ramping with seemingly factual wild promises of massive newsflow etc (once again). it might happen but I never see GRH post that type of unknown promise , he merely comments on the information in the public domain and that founded by his own extensive research.
One other poster mentioned long leads. I held the same opinion as the SLB ‘wannabe’. For me the the most problematic word in the RNS is ‘sourced’. That does not mean PO placed (contextually) it means you know where you can get it from… anyway great update and good luck to all.
It’s not directly related nicidemus, but don’t think it’s been posted on here yet. This week, Sonatrach/Algeria announced their biggest singular gas find in 20 years - up to 12 TCF that can be bought online in 5-6 months owing to proximity to existing infrastructure…
No worries Ford. I recommend looking back over earlier presentations as the project cycles are fairly well laid out (and certainly won’t be getting any shorter in today’s execution environment).
From memory the critical path is the EPC contract of the buoy for mooring and transfer and subsequent offshore campaign, although that assumed that the FSRU was a plug and play lease of existing vessel from Hoegh. Can’t recall now if there was talk of a new build vessel cropping up in recent comms.
Just had time to get through the paper. Excellent branding and clarity. Agree with previous comments to that effect.
Sorry if anyone already raised, but the scheme becomes a lot clearer and if I’m not mistaken this is the first time two FSRU are mentioned? Interesting development. Additionally those buoys and mooring interfaces will be serious pieces of kit… doesn’t seem to be the front runner for quick value realisation but no one is better positioned to capitalise on what could happen if policy shifts in Ireland.
Buy and sell as you see fit, it’s a market and everyone’s right to do so. It’s the ramping and deramping to suit the trading agenda which is what people will take exception to… good luck to you too with you current and future holding.