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Fitch Maintains British Airways Ratings Amid Impaired Profitability

Royal Bank of Scotland Report on Jobs
Permanent placements increase in September
• Fresh uplift in permanent staff appointments, but growth only mild
• Temp billings rise at quicker pace
• Pay pressures ease, but remain historically sharp
Scotland's labour market saw an improvement in overall hiring activity in September, according to the latest Royal Bank of Scotland Report on Jobs survey, with recruiters reporting a fresh rise in permanent placements and stronger temp billings growth. The seasonally adjusted Permanent Placements Index rose back above the neutral 50.0 mark, rising from 47.3 in August to 52.7 in September, to signal a mild uplift in permanent staff appointments, while temp billings increased at a strong and accelerated rate.
At the same time, sustained growth of vacancies, combined with another deterioration in candidate availability, led to further upwards pressure on pay. Notably, both starting salaries and temp wages increased at historically sharp rates, despite easing since August.
Permanent placements return to growth
Adjusted for seasonal variation, the Permanent Placements Index rose back above the neutral level of 50.0 in September to signal a fresh rise in permanent staff appointments across Scotland. Panellists attributed the upturn to strong demand for staff and increased hiring activity amongst clients in some sectors. That said, the pace of increase was only mild.
September data pointed to sustained growth of temp billings across Scotland, extending the current sequence of upturn that began two years ago. The rate of expansion ticked up from August's seven-month low and was solid overall.
The pace of increase in temp billings in Scotland was broadly in line with the trend seen for the UK as a whole.
Further marked drop in permanent candidate availability
The supply of permanent staff across Scotland continued to decrease in September, stretching the current sequence of contraction to 20 months. Skills shortages and high demand for staff reportedly drove the latest fall. Notably, the rate of decline quickened slightly on the month and was marked overall.
Scotland recorded a much sharper fall in permanent staff supply than that seen on average across the UK, with the pace of decline slowing slightly on the month at the national level.

https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/4657e11874b54c7e8d50e9ee23e2752d

https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/ebb86631f9e347eaaf12550a12cddbff

House prices fall slightly as market shows further signs of slowing
• House prices decreased marginally (-0.1%) in September (vs. +0.3% in August)
• Annual rate of growth fell further to +9.9% (from +11.4%)
• A typical UK property now costs £293,835
• Annual inflation slowed in all but one region during September
• Wales still showing the strongest annual growth in the UK

Kim Kinnaird, Director, Halifax Mortgages, said:

“The average UK house price experienced a slight fall in September (-0.1%), the second marginal decrease over the past three months. The cost of a typical home edged down a little to £293,835 from the previous month’s record high (£293,992). The pace of annual growth also slowed for the third month in a row, to +9.9% from +11.4%, returning to single-digits for the first time since January.
“The events of the last few weeks have led to greater economic uncertainty, however in reality house prices have been largely flat since June, up by around £250. This compares to a rise of more than £10,000 during the

https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/0dec209e2dcd4d9381f01b9d20bf48af

Oct 6 (Reuters) - British businesses' expectations for consumer price inflation in one year's time rose to 9.5% last month, up from 8.4% in August, a Bank of England survey showed on Thursday.

The BoE's Decision Maker Panel survey of chief financial officers also showed that businesses expected output prices to rise by 6.6% in the year ahead, up from expectations of 6.5% in August.

The survey was conducted between Sept. 2 and 16 and received 2,522 responses

Oct 6 (Reuters) - British businesses' expectations for consumer price inflation in one year's time rose to 9.5% last month, up from 8.4% in August, a Bank of England survey showed on Thursday.

The BoE's Decision Maker Panel survey of chief financial officers also showed that businesses expected output prices to rise by 6.6% in the year ahead, up from expectations of 6.5% in August.

The survey was conducted between Sept. 2 and 16 and received 2,522 responses

FTSE 100 dips into the red and bond yields edge up as Fitch cuts UK rating outlook

(Reuters) - Ratings agency Fitch lowered the outlook for its credit rating for British government debt to "negative" from "stable" on Wednesday, days after a similar move from rival Standard & Poor's following the government's Sept. 23 fiscal statement.

"The large and unfunded fiscal package announced as part of the new government's growth plan could lead to a significant increase in fiscal deficits over the medium term," Fitch said.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/fitch-cuts-uks-rating-negative-stable-2022-10-05/

Liz truss could be gone by Christmas she keeps changing her mind and now markets have lost confidence in her

FTSE 100 is set to open higher on Thursday despite another hit resulting from the chancellor’s mini budget.

Spread betting companies are calling the lead index up by around 30 points.

No we didn't have a pandemic either and no planes flying

The £11.7bn debt is why the shorters keep shorting IAG and one of reason the SP is where it is

Did you not know that

"So don't get emotional, and if you have the time then wait it out 18 months and you'll be handsomely rewarded for sure"

What's happening in 18 months

Hope this goes under £1 looking cheap I might be buying in

A simple screen of debt to earnings of FTSE companies also flags British Airways owner International Consolidated Airlines Group PLC (£11.7bn net debt versus a market cap of £5bn)

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/994569/red-flags-for-rolls-royce-iag-bt-and-marston-s-debt-levels-as-interest-rates-surge-994569.html

OPEC cuts output looms over markets IAG heading south

Prime minister Liz Truss risks being forced out of Downing Street before the end of the year, according to the odds from several bookies

The bookmaker has slashed her odds of departing by the year-end to 7/2 from 40/1 back in September

Dr John Glen, Chief Economist, Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (CIPS)

"More evidence of weaknesses in the UK economy appeared last month as the services sector flatlined in September, falling to the no-change mark with fewer orders and higher costs affecting output.
"The new business index was the lowest since February
2021 as domestic consumers had cost-of-living pressures
and not hospitality uppermost in their minds. After enjoying 40 rising levels of export orders for eight months in a row, the
ongoing effects of Brexit and trade difficulties also reduced
overseas enquiries for service companies.
"Inflation rates remained high forcing businesses to pay more for food and energy and ongoing staff shortages put upward pressure on salaries. However, some improvement in fuel and transportation costs gave service providers a modicum of respite.
"Expectations of growth from service providers in the next 12 months also stalled to its lowest since May 2020 following the first pandemic lockdown. 39% of respondents were hopeful that business opportunities would grow but this compared with over 60% at the beginning of the year, which is a significant downturn and a clear indication of the trajectory this year."

Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, which compiles the survey:

"September data highlighted an absence of growth in the UK service sector for the first time in 19 months as the energy crisis continued to hit business and consumer spending.
"Severe pressure on budgets in the wake of rising inflation, alongside deepening worries about the economic outlook, also led to a reversal in new order volumes for the first time since February 2021.
"Employment trends remained positive in September, with staff numbers increasing at a strong pace as service providers adjusted to post-pandemic requirements. However, the pace of job creation has now slowed for three months running amid greater caution about future growth and sporadic reports of hiring freezes.
Index of Services % qr/qr
sa, >50 = growth since previous month
70 60 50 40 30 20
10 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22
UK Services PMI Employment Index sa, >50 = growth since previous month
70
50 40 30 20 10
Sources: S&P Global, CIPS.
UK Services PMI Input Prices Index sa, >50 = inflation since previous month
80 70 60 50
30
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22
Sources: S&P Global, CIPS.
6
4
2
0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12
"Wage pressures due to shortages of candidates to fill
vacancies were widely reported by service companies in 60
September, which added to pressure on business expenses from escalating energy costs. The overall rate of input price inflation nonetheless eased slightly to its lowest since December 2021, helped by falling fuel prices and transportation costs.
"Service sector businesses trimmed their growth expectations to the lowest seen for nearly two-and-a- half years in September, which survey respondents linked to concerns about falling disposable income and the unfavourable global economic outlook."

Service sector activity stalls in September as inflationary pressures hit discretionary spending
Key findings
Weakest service sector performance since February 2021
New orders decline for first time in 19 months
Input cost inflation continues to edge down from May's peak

September data pointed to a loss of momentum for the UK service sector, with an 18-month period of output expansion coming to an end amid falling volumes of incoming new work. Shrinking client demand was widely attributed to pressure on household budgets from escalating inflation, alongside widespread pessimism about the economic outlook.
Business expectations for the year ahead meanwhile dropped to the lowest since May 2020. Survey respondents noted that the energy crisis, global recession concerns and rising interest rates had all weighed on business optimism.
At 50.0 in September, the headline seasonally adjusted S&P Global / CIPS UK Services PMI® Business Activity Index registered in line with the neutral threshold and therefore signalled unchanged levels of output across the service economy. The index was down from 50.9 in August and pointed to the weakest service sector performance since the national lockdown in February 2021.
Service providers often noted spending cutbacks among UK households, especially in relation to discretionary services such as hospitality and leisure. There were also reports that rising business expenses and heightened economic uncertainty had added to demand headwinds.
The latest survey indicated a marginal overall decline in new orders across the service economy, which contrasted with the period of growth seen over the past one-and-a-half years. Many service providers cited subdued confidence and ongoing cost cutting efforts among clients.
Export sales also fell in September, which ended an eight- month period of growth. Brexit-related trade difficulties and weaker global economic conditions were reported by survey respondents. However, some firms commented on a boost from exchange rate depreciation, especially in US markets.

https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/f8d4dbbf845f4911ab140f4a8a07164d