RE: Moving forward13 Jun 2025 16:46
Ultrafan potential valuation (From ChatGPT)
Scenario
Ultrafan Status
Market Share (Narrow-Body)
Valuation Impact (Est.)
Conservative
Powers only widebodies, minor SAF upgrades
0%
Limited; shares remain sensitive to legacy engine services
Moderate
Enters widebody + hybrid mid-size aircraft
5–10%
+£5–10 billion in market cap (15–25% share upside)
Bullish
Secures A320neo or new platform with Airbus or Boeing
15–25%
+£15–30 billion in valuation (40–60% upside)
Analyst Expectations
• Barclays & Jefferies have flagged Ultrafan as a “potential game-changer” if it enters the narrow-body space.
• Rolls-Royce itself says Ultrafan could be ready for service by 2030, pending OEM adoption.
• A clear partnership with Airbus or Boeing (e.g., for a next-gen green narrow-body jet) could be the catalyst for a sharp re-rating.
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🔋 Additional Strategic Levers
• Ultrafan will likely lock in high-margin TotalCare contracts, extending 25–30 years of recurring revenue.
• Its SAF and hydrogen adaptability aligns it with net zero aviation targets, unlocking ESG capital flows.
• The UK government and private funds are backing Ultrafan, minimizing R&D downside risk.
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🧭 Final Thoughts
Ultrafan is not just an engine—it’s a platform that could break Rolls-Royce’s dependence on wide-body cycles. Its scalability:
• Could let Rolls compete in the largest aircraft market segment (narrow-body),
• Build decades of high-margin recurring revenue, and
• Reposition the company as a tech leader in green aviation.
If OEMs adopt it, RR could see 40–60% upside in valuation, especially as ESG funds and long-term institutional investors rotate in.