Member Info for LiveLongnProsper

@DTW, looks like Dx ‘div’, Launch plus Coris, loaded with original Avcata Dx management, David Wilson et al. Just looking at Dx ‘team’ page – Launch have 2 or 3 MD’s (watch out for French employment laws sorting that one), and Coris aren’t even shown – is there even an attempt at integration? Lot of ‘streamlining’ opportunities, then profitable, then sell at a good price. CLN to deal with though.

GLA

@gmcc, hope to see you back sooner rather than later. Will miss your posts. In the meantime - wishing you all the best.

As at 22nd January 2024 the company has 287,956,207 ordinary shares.

Conifer Management, LLC 4.4% = 12.67m shares, on 353m (post raise?) = 3.6%

Baillie Gifford & Co Limited 3.7% = 10,65m, on 353m (post raise?) = 3.0%

Could easily trigger TR1’s if either of the above have participated in the raise, or reduced their holdings.

Would like to see a TR1 from the “European specialist healthcare fund”, not to mention “a number of high quality institutions”. Here is an example of a ‘European specialist healthcare fund’ …

https://www.nvfund.com/

Probably just 'wishful thinking'.

GLA

And just to reiterate (again), CC should do the presentation, and it needs to be good.

GLA

Hope it’s a ‘proper’ presentation and not just a poster. This is what the 28 Feb RNS said …

“Presentation of Phase 1 three-weekly study clinical data at AACR 2024 in April 2024”.

Will have a better idea tomorrow night. From the current version of the AACR 2024 planner …

“ Abstracts. The titles and text of the regular abstracts in Minisymposia and Poster Sessions, and the titles of the clinical trial and late-breaking abstracts, will be posted to the planner at 4:30 PM ET on Tuesday, March 5. The text of the clinical trial and late-breaking abstracts will be posted to the planner at 3:00 PM ET on Friday, April 5, the first day of the Annual Meeting.”.

GLA

@Bella, AffXell in discussion with FDA re IND ...

http://affyxell.com/bbs/?so_table=news&mode=VIEW&num=38&category=&findType=&findWord=&sort1=&sort2=&page=1

This is a very sugnificant, as would mean Affimers in human trials.

GLA

TP page 5 in big letters …

“Phase 2 study to commence in H2 2024 with planning for targeted commercialisation in 2026”.

Then …

“These results [from Q2W] will be utilised for completion of the proposed Phase 2 trial design and format, which is likely to be ready early in H2 2024 in anticipation of the registrational study commencing before year end. Expected to conclude in less than 18 months from initiation ..”

This from v2 of TP, v1 being quickly corrected, so reasonable to assume that it has Avacta’s ‘blessing’.

What stands out for me though, is that the AACR presentation is specifically highlighted on the gantt chart. Again, hope CC does the presentation, and it really had better be good.

GLA

LDA, there is undoubtedly an issue with terminology (which has changed). 1a terminology seems to end with C7, 1b appears to have been dropped, Q2W (bi-weekly) is about optimising the choice of indications and dose level for Phase II.

Anyone looking through RNS’s and recent presentations may well have a different interpretation, but taking TP …

“Q2W Ph 1”  “Recommended Ph 2 dose (RP2D)”  “Phase 2 indications selected” – by Q3/24.

Then “Expansion cohorts leading to a pivotal Phase 2 study”.

Typically, a ‘pivotal’ trial would be a Phase III, but we have previously heard mention of Phase II being ‘registrational’ and ‘pivotal’.

The actual Phase II+ plan will be ‘firmed up’ when the outcome for the range of indications covered in Q2W becomes clear.

In the meantime, I am expecting that the AACR presentation will ‘illuminate’ the Phase 1a / Q3W Phase I results. Will say it again (and again), it had better be a good presentation.

GLA

Affimers for Tx will be very valuable - AVA028/032, AffyXell, LR9128 (LG Chem), TMAC, etc.

Tx keep Affimer IP and Licence to Dx.

GLA

@Bella, thought had crossed my mind, also who might be the CEO of the 'spun off' standalone Dx business!

GLA

Point vs Avacta (different, but similar goals). Both companies are developing targeted cancer therapies – Point via RadioLigand Therapy (RLT), Avacta via chemotherapy / proteasome inhibitors (potentially other ‘warheads’) incorporated into a substrate that is sensitive to cleavage by FAP-α (pre|CISION™). Highlights (only, and simplified), below …

Point Biopharma – acquired by Lily for $1.4bn (~£1.1bn)

PNT2002 – RLT PSMA target, phase 3, trial met end-point, but results not up to expectations.

PNT2003 – RLT SSTR target, phase 3, FDA accepted abbreviated new drug application (ANDA), ‘frequent grade 3/4 AEs’, only 180 days exclusivity.

PNT2004 – RLT FAP-α target, phase 1 (177Lu), pre-clinical (225Ac). PNT2001 – RLT PSMA target, pre-clinical. CanSEEK™ - (i.e. pre|CISION™ licenced for RLT), status unknown.

Point had a strong balance sheet arising from a licensing deal with Lantheus at end-2022 involving PNT2002 and PNT2003 (so presumably Lantheus continue with a big stake?).

Point had no product sales.

Avacta – market value (on 333m shares @ 54p) = £180m

AVA6000 - FAP-α activated doxorubicin, phase 1, going well so far, planning for dose expansion / phase 2.

AVA3996 - FAP-α activated proteasome inhibitor, planning for FDA IND and phase 1.

AVA028/032 – PD-L1 Affimer, research / pre-clinical.

AFX-001 – Immunomodulatory Affimer being progressed by AffyXell (JV Daewoong) to FDA IND.

Avacta now have cash funding into 2026, however there remains an outstanding £38.25m of CLN debt.

Avacta have product sales from the Dx div (Launch and Coris) expected to be EBITDA positive in H2/2024 and cash positive in 2025.

Qualitative assessment – Personally (DYOR) I think that Avacta’s pipeline / technology is much more valuable. RLT difficult (major supply-chain issues), whereas pre|CISION™ is a true ‘platform’ technology. Subject to Dx and CLN being sorted (albeit simplistically, perhaps at worst self-cancelling), would (‘qualitatively’) judge Avacta Tx value being at least that of the Point / Lily acquisition deal.

GLA

@bella, so just retail LTHs averaging down? Haha.

Guess the sells are the less than ‘sticky’ II’s and the buys are the real stakebuilders, or just the more informed II’s who know they will be able to sell much higher in the not too distant future? Let’s see the TR1’s.

Someone mentioned a 40 day blackout period on news because of US investors – if this is the case (I’m not sure), then that nicely brings us to a day or 2 after the mid-point of AACR (5-10 April). Coincidence? Hope not. Will say again, the AACR presentation better be good.

GLA

Alan may well ‘rue the day’ he treated retail LTH’s so badly.

From 29 Feb RNS “the Company has successfully placed 51,269,609 Placing Shares at the Offer Price of 50 pence per Placing Share with new and existing [institutional] investors, including a number of high quality institutions and a European specialist healthcare fund.”

Would like to know who the European Fund are. But it would be rather ironic if, in an attempt to increase II holdings, these ‘high quality’ institutuions turned out to be less than ‘sticky’ and were just interested in making a ‘quick buck’. The irony being that LTH retail investors will just take the opportunity to average down and the retail base could end up being proportionally larger. Let’s see if any TR1’s.

Having said that, my preference is for a BP to start building a stake.

GLA

Big dilution done, smaller (retail) dilution to come – expect will be hugely oversubscribed and scaled back.

Lot of trades today (notable ones perhaps, below), see how ‘sticky’ new investors are – maybe TR1’s to come?

New shares issued in 2 blocks – March 4th-11th, and March 10th-26th.

Placings both completed before March 5th ‘reveal’ by AACR (presentation confirmed) – will it be a ‘title’ or ‘title’ with ‘text’?

Expecting a lot of churn over the next few weeks, and expect the trend to be back upwards. Possible opportunity for BP (stake building opportunity will just get more expensive)?

What, of substance, has changed though …

Dilution – bad, should not have been by so much, will have to reduce my target price by ~20%. (Sir Al scoring D- to D on this).

Funded – good, 2 years to get AVA6000 through phase 2 and AVA3996 on trial, but CLN situation needs sorting soon.

Clarity – slightly better, still far from ‘crystal’, but a better view of plan for trials, though Dx strategy (link to CLN) needs sorting, and no partner status or Tx Affimer updates.

AACR confirmed – very good, just hope CC doing the presentation, expect even more ‘clarity’ from this, looking forward to a solid update on 1a, better not disappoint, as this is ‘prime time’ in the oncology world.

GLA

Concur.

@Bella, wish I knew. Some kind of reveal late (our time) on March 5th. On one level would be disappointing if a 'no show'. However, the C7 data will be presented soon enough - how about a 'Science Day 2' with more (err ..) science and some 'human interest' stories?

In the meantime I'm patient and adding in small 'chunks' at this level.

GLA

Just catching up, so this follows on from @jive_turkey from 10:54. Re C7 data expected at AACR …

“March 5, 2024: Titles and Text of Regular Abstracts Posted to Online Itinerary Planner (4:30 p.m. ET)

March 5, 2024: Titles of Late-Breaking and Clinical Trial Abstracts Posted to Online Itinerary Planner (4:30 p.m. ET)

April 5, 2024: Text of Late-Breaking and Clinical Trial Abstracts Posted to Online Itinerary Planner (3 p.m. ET)”.

Deadline for .. “Requests to withdraw regular abstracts will be accepted through Friday, February 9, 2024. Requests to withdraw late-breaking or clinical trials abstracts will be accepted through Friday, February 23, 2024”, gone.

So are we in or out? If we’re in, we find out if title and text (‘regular’) on March 5th, or just title (‘late-breaking and clinical trials’) – otherwise wait until April 5th. So in or out, ‘standard’ or ‘special’?

1 week or 6 weeks of pointless speculation? Just tell us the results and the plan Sir Al, we do own the co. after all.

GLA

@Rorkes, interesting thought, but think we should wait a little longer.

AffXell on the ‘cusp’ of IND etc. We own 19%+ (subject to valuation) of AffyXell as the JV heads to IND, in-human trials, series B funding, and targeting IPO in 2026.

Like the enthusiasm of AffyXell CEO Seungho Jeon. Worth a careful read, potentially ‘game changing’ …

http://affyxell.com/bbs/?so_table=news&mode=VIEW&num=38&category=&findType=&findWord=&sort1=&sort2=&page=1

Affimers not far off ‘in-human’ trials then. AffyXell, and Affimers generally, will be worth an awful lot more when this happens.

GLA

Just been reading something (not Avacta) by Paul Hill (PMH Capital and Vox), noticed Sir Al top of his linkedin 'other people view' list.

Probably just a coincidence?

GLA

(Chemo drugs, that are proven to work, delivered just to the TME, therefore with minimal side effects, at higher doses, would probably be a good thing, just a thought ..?).

Quiet can unsettle some. Lot’s of speculation. Lot’s of genuine news to come. For example …

C7 full and detailed data and analysis, plus ongoing patient treatment.

Confirmation of AACR presentation.

Bi-weekly recruitment / progress.

AVA3996/2727D status (eg IND filing progress).

Tx Affimer updates - AVA028/032, AVA021.

Partners – AffyXell (AFX-001 IND), LG Chem (LR19128)

Licensing deals? BP ‘stake’? Acquisition? Nasdaq IPO? Other funding options?

Dx strategy – Affimers for Dx, integration progress, potential ‘spin off’, etc.

Peace and Long Life