Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Yes, that is right, business model and fundamentals are all good and wti above 40 helps, especially now at 50 plus.
It should be next catalyst, but share price won’t move much due to placees and traders who entered at 0.13p are selling. Friday was very good to see increased interest and sustained sp until close of trading hours. If we have another few days with volumes above 100m faster they call sell and share price should continue slowly move upward. That is if no negative surprises from production rates announcement.
IMO next strong catalyst would be signing MoU with a non chinese and big player for 145 license and revealing groundwork plan for this license for 2021.
Gla
Yup all good signs plus:
Cash in bank: AUD 1.5m
Norseman shares: AUD 0.2m
Welch sale: AUD 0.55m
Total: USD 1.75m
And F1 net operating monthly cash to MSMN of approx. USD 75k per month (at WTI 50 and 2.7 natural gas) based of test flow rates.
What will really start moving share price is any firm short term/medium term plan on 145/155. But you already all know that.
Gla
Since 20th October when they raised 720m shares at 0.125p, we had:
54 trading days
total trading volume: approx. 3,969m
if institutions are offloading at around 20% of volume each trading day, then these 72o should be churned or very close as 20% comes to around 793m (vs 720m placed).
That means institutions will be knocking on MSMN door soon:) but if they are rejected then yes SP could go up to next warrants exercise levels rather quick (0.23p or 0.25p) as MMs have to provide liquidity.
gla
Sellers (0.15p placees) are still offloading which is fine as with higher volume faster they can sell. And not surprised as Mosman tried to raise as much as they could before the US election.
I would like to have Management to confirm next week at Q&A if their US oil&gas business model is now self sustainable - meaning US operations net profitable (after overheads, admin, corporate costs) and when they will be able to raise debt based on reserves or sustained revenue.
I am a bit worried that our management loves to open doors wide to institutions placee each time they knock on the door and give them lots of sweet cookies (warrants). Personally I don't mind they raise money for US operations if it is growing and profitable.
Not expecting much on Amadeus projects as it seems they are not able to do much. I think they will just wait (do minimum what is needed to hold on license) until CP starts with drilling in similar geo structures to our 145 - that is expected early 2022. 155 is on hold as JV partner cannot do anything at the moment. Here would be also good to ask management what progress was made by JV partner, what is their plan for 2021...
gla
It was mentioned before on this chat that drilling crew changes on average 28 days, which will be on around 13th, 14th next week.. Media or streets might get a sniff of something then. But rumour is just a rumour.
Jdam, it might be 2p warrants, once these are done, it will be notified.
Harry,
The intention of the board is to do a result announcement only at the very end of the drilling (might be after reaching 4800m or 5800m and completing evaluations). Meanwhile they have to decide if to go deeper or not and unfortunately it looks like the only means of getting more funds immediately is to exercise 'put'.
Zurichsee, myself see it that way too and bpc would go further to 5800m only in event of success (not necessarily knowing if commercial). It can happen any day from now until 13th next week. It is also pretty much in alignment with Conman prognosis that these days they should be at the start of the main target and complete drilling to 4800m by around 15th-17th when decision will be made if to run wirelogs, exercise put and go deeper to 5800m. imo
and finance engineers (the LO INvestor) are prepared to take little risk as possible, hence these financing terms. They could easily give these additional (5+5m) back in December but Investor prefers to have a flavor of what is coming out of drill first. Hence 10 business days timeframe which means in normal circumstances BPC should be now drilling into the reservoir. This is based on Coman expectations that was shared back in September, he noted the bellow that after around 15-17 days of drilling operations:
... As soon as they start drilling through the reservoir they will see the real time logging while drilling (LWD) data and have a very good idea if they are in the success case scenario or not....everyone on the rig will know! ...
Yep it was me.
Great show of confidence from Afzal that management can deliver positively from Amadeus licenses.
I noticed again in Central Presentation that they believe their license next to our 155 have basically same sub salt structure as Dukas and potentially bigger. Our JV partner Georgina needs to do IPO before 155 can be progressed. Probably they wait until there is more interest or Dukas well drilled. Central plan is to drill next to our 155 after Dukas well.
145 is the one that is of more interest short term. Exploration license was already granted. JV partner/s have to do some more due diligence and then can start preparations for drilling. 145 JV announcement but not just with any partner, we need the one with big pockets enough to explore and drill (70/30 preferably). That type of announcement would be great trigger for MSMN as a £20-30m market company. Geology in Amadeus will be proven next year even more and pipeline is almost there - great asset value makers. Just need that strong JV partner. Can Mosman management execute that type of JV agreement? Afzal believes that they definitely can.
gla
Thanks for that.
Central Petroleum drilled two wells couple of years back (Mt Kitty, and another one) both had substantial Helium, however there was no enough presence of hydrocarbons in those wells - lack of hydrocarbon sands. So, Santos and Central went back to drawing board, looked at further area and believe with Dukas they hit a spot, as they said that there was a lot of hydrocarbon presence even before finishing the Dukas well (not sure how they know that). Dukas H1 2022.
But since last 2 weeks Central announced they got some extra money and will be drilling further wells just around 155 licence in 2021. This will be important for our JV partner Georgina Energy to perhaps attract enough interest for their IPO and fund exploration well on 155.
Thanks for sharing.
Cenrtal Petroleum is also experiencing delays in farmout completion processes in Amadeus basin:
'Whilst COVID-related travel restrictions have impacted the farmout schedule, including more detailed due
diligence, discussions are progressing well with a view to completing a farm-out transaction to fund the
exploration program in a way that is value-accretive to Central’s shareholders.'
Buying from unfortunate distressed seller... hitting nail on the head!
145 Exploration license was extended until August 2023. Drilling around this area during 2021 by Santos and Central Petroleum will be key to observe. Any further success will send 145 to a very interesting asset. Another key event will be Dukas results which drilling starts early 2022 and this will make 155 a compelling one too, which has same geology and traps as area with Dukas well.
Once this business model of low operational costs (mid teens or under $20) is proven with financials, this will be definitely reflected in share price.
Falcon 1 flow test next week :) and first revenues from Falcon to look forward too.
gla