Member Info for Lindon

Alpha... shorttracker shows this fund changed from a prior 0% level to its current level on Wednesday.
This short was opened AFTER the RNS was released on Wednesday. The question I believe that has to be asked is why? Why would anyone, in the face of that good news, want to put a cap on the rising sp and drag it back down again?

It's the only short registered on shorttracker .... showing opened 8/5/19

*Ramaphosa* !!

Eskom reform may boost banks
17 minutes ago:

https://www.fin24.com/Economy/ramaphosa-win-eskom-reform-may-boost-banks-20190510-2

President Cyril Ramaphosa’s re-election will strengthen investor confidence in South Africa, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Philip Richards and Edmond Christou.

A stronger mandate for Ramaphosa will enable the government to accelerate the reorganisation of power utility Eskom, with land reform likely to follow. Those factors would curb risks facing the nation’s banks, they said.

The ruling African National Congress is set to win a majority that’s about five percentage points lower than the last election in 2014, while the populist Economic Freedom Fighters is set to increase its share of the vote the most, albeit by less than predicted by pollsters.

How awarded damages could even triple if it goes to appeal!

A review of enhanced damages since Halo: Minimizing potential exposure to enhanced damages

In Halo Elecs., Inc. v. Pulse Elecs., Inc., the U.S. Supreme Court reaffirmed the principle that “[a]wards of enhanced damages … are not to be meted out in a typical infringement case, but are instead designed as a ‘punitive’ or ‘vindictive’ sanction for egregious infringement behavior.”
For more...
https://www.ipwatchdog.com/2017/09/14/enhanced-damages-since-halo/id=87716/

Imo the "intentional" and 'wilful' allegations made by the jury could put a much more serious perspective on their verdict. I believe those allegations will give GSK serious pause for thought in considering the liklyhood of any appeal being successful. If they lose an appeal they could well stand a good chance of having the 'damages' very substantially increased. Sometimes when you've dug yourself into a hole it's good policy to stop digging! We will have to await development but if the verdict holds... it should give the sp another increase and well deserved uplift.

The wilful nature of the infringement opens the door for exemplary damages and imo that should prove rather interesting. Also the current expiry date for this deal was 2021.... another couple of years worth of sales so we are probably talking somewhere in the region of another similar $90 million in expected royalties by then. Add all this to the current cash pile and VEC has to be seen as a very tempting target.... and I would imagine... a re-rate over the next couple of weeks.

MTJK
Whilst they will obviously plan to expediate the upgrade as quickly as it's possible to do so, I think the scale of what will be a major upgrade for Vamacto will mean a bit more downtime than a routine scheduled maintaince shutdown.

Bushveld continues to explore the potential to further increase Vametco’s capacity to approximately 5,000t pa over the longer term. It has previously detailed that this third phase of expansion will likely involve an upgrade of the kiln feed and discharge equipment and an expansion of the process circuit’s evaporative capacity.

The diagnostic review highlighted that additional targeted investment is required for the kiln and the leach and crushing circuits in order to achieve such expanded rates.

The company is progressing environmental approvals for this planned initiative, and has commenced detailed design and capital estimation work with a view to commencing construction in 2020. We believe the capital cost (previously guided at around US$15m) will prove fundable through internal cash generation.

http://www.bushveldminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Vanadium-strength-drives-sharp-earnings-growth.pdf

It would be excellent if they can bring the electrolyte side up to a reasonable production level in the very short term and start supplying the electrolyte market whilst the main East London site is constructed.

Presumably Vemacto will have to be taken off-line and out of commission for a considerable time in order to facilitate the plans for its $multi-million upgrade next year. If so, Vanachem is going to be needed to at least make up for and equal current production levels. I would think that getting Vanachem's V levels up to a good level of production is going to be the immediate priority once the deal has gone through.

.... if GSK want to protect their future $multi-billion earning plans for their upcoming Ellipta range which make use of VEC's inhaler tech.... perhaps now they'll be thinking more about removing VEC from the game board sooner rather than later!?

Bloomberg report:

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/pharma-and-life-sciences/glaxo-is-on-hook-for-89-7-million-to-vectura-over-inhaler-1-1

Glaxo Is on Hook for $89.7 Million to Vectura Over Inhalers (2)
Posted May 3, 2019, 7:51 PM Updated May 3, 2019, 10:49 PM

Delaware jury finds patent was intentionally infringed
Jurors take less than two hours; reject claim patent invalid
GlaxoSmithKline Plc was ordered by a jury to pay Vectura Group Plc $89.7 million in royalties for infringing a patent on inhalers used to treat chronic lung disease.

Breo, Anoro and Incruse, which Glaxo began selling in 2013 as part of its Ellipta suite of treatments, have technology owned by Vectura that helps disperse the medicine deep inside the lungs, according to the jury in Wilmington, Delaware.

Jurors, who deliberated on May 3 for less than two hours, also found...

raxfactor, yes... GSK's deep pockets could possibly keep any USA court appeal procedures running till the costs outweigh the monies owed.

IMO though... I don't think so.... I think on balance it's unlikely GSK will want to go down that route. Apart from this issue they actually have a good relationship with VEC. I think that in the event this doesn't prove to be the last we hear of this story... any further moves are more likely to be of an agreed settlement type. I feel it's probably gone on long enough for both companies and they'll both be glad to see the back of it!

https://www.law360.com/trials/articles/1156339/breaking-glaxosmithkline-hit-with-89-7m-verdict-for-inhaler-ip

BREAKING: GlaxoSmithKline Hit With $89.7M IP Verdict For Inhaler IP.

Law360 (May 3, 2019, 1:46 PM EDT) -- A federal jury in Delaware found Friday that GlaxoSmithKline LLC and Glaxo Group Ltd. owe $89.7 million to UK-based Vectura Ltd. for infringing a single claim of a patent covering features...

BBN... "In my opinion the Vanchem deal delivers the BMN story as it is currently written in all of its glory and it is now just about waiting for the pieces to be brought together into what will be a beautiful piece of architecture when it is complete"...........

.......... "I don't care if they buy, sell, short or simply sit on their hands. That's because none of those moves will make a blind bit of difference in the end".
Yep, ditto!

qwertyqwer25, although we as investors might prefer a move to the main market, I doubt our CEO will. Why move from a light fingered touch... to come under a more rigid and much stricter rule book if you don't need to?

Fortune Mojapelo has been quite clear in having zero interest in using foreign markets for any future funding reasons .... "the company’s vanadium project was a “very South African story”, and that South African investors’ understanding of the country’s geology, risks and vast potential mean that it was essential that mining projects are funded with capital raised in SA, rather than from foreign capital markets like London".

https://www.biznisafrica.com/2019-a-seminal-year-for-investor-confidence-in-sa-mining-sector/

TBH... I don't think we would notice much difference anyway, shorting attacks are still set up and large background sellers use bots to walk the order book up and down and manipulate the sp levels to their liking whilst they make long term disposals... those sorts of 'sp control' problems are just as rife on the main market as on AIM. The only difference is it done by electronic means. However its probably almost certainly the case that Fortune will be trying to get over to the electronic SETTS system on AIM in order to smooth the path towards the dual listing plans. That might have some limited beneficial effect.

https://www.bushveldminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Vanchem-acquisition-opens-door-to-10000t-pa.pdf

There is no posssibility of VEC making any kind of direct divi payments because the corporate governance accountancy rules forbid it.

Companies are barred from making divi payments whilst there are outstanding lossses (including any historical/legacy losses) yet to be cleared from the accounts. VEC will be continuing doing that for a few more years yet.

The only way companies in VEC's position can legally try to return value to their shareholders is by allocating distributal monies to share buy back schemes.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-13/china-isn-t-ready-for-iron-ore-deficit-steelhome-s-wu-says

China’s steel industry, the world’s largest, isn’t prepared for a looming shortage of iron ore in the second half that’s set to drive prices higher, according to a prominent industry adviser, who warned of devastating volatility should mainland holdings sink below 100 million tons.

Prices will “absolutely” continue to rise as mine closures in Brazil spur a deficit, Wu Wenzhang, founder and president of Shanghai Steelhome Information Technology Co., said in an interview. Mills in Europe and the Middle East will be in a worse position than China’s in the event of a prolonged shortage, he said.

Inventories below 100 million tons would trigger volatile price swings
The global market is reeling from a January dam disaster at a Vale SA operation that triggered a sweep of mine closures across Brazil and boosted prices to the highest since 2014. Shipments from the South American nation are collapsing, while Australian disruptions and signs of a pick-up in China’s steel demand offer a further boost to prices. So far, mills in China have played down the potential disruption, saying supplies will pick-up elsewhere.

“They don’t realize what’s going to happen,” Wu said on Saturday on the sidelines of Steelhome’s conference, which attracts about 1,000 delegates from around China. The disruptions will amount to 60 million tons of lost supply this year, according to his “conservative” estimate.

“The only thing we can do is try to convince the steelmakers to believe what could happen with iron ore supply, and to prepare for the upcoming shortage,” he said.

... news could land which could quite possibly warm things up considerably and bring about a complete change to the current atmosphere. We could get the expected Vametco Mineral reserve and resource estimate. What would blow the doors off if they can also announce the receipt of a mining licence for Britts at the same time as announicing new proposals for another processing plant.... which will have to get construction underway soon so as to replace the current Vametco one for when it undergoes its £multi-million upgrade next year.

In the meantime this news of things warming from another direction shows how quickly perceived depressing situations can suddenly go into reverse.

China steel surges on seasonal demand, iron ore hits record high:

[MANILA] China's steel futures on Monday gained more than 3 per cent on a seasonal upturn in demand, lending support to prices for steelmaking raw materials, including iron ore, which extended a record-breaking rally.

The most active construction steel rebar contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose as much as 3.6 per cent to 3,710 yuan (US$552.40) a tonne, its highest since August 22.

Hot rolled coil, used for cars and home appliances, jumped as much as 3.4 per cent to 3,955 yuan a tonne.

"The physical prices of steel have also increased over the last few days, driven by the seasonal demand improvement," said Richard Lu, senior analyst at CRU Group's Beijing office.

China steel demand typically picks up at the end of the winter, with April usually the peak month as industrial and other activity starts back up as temperatures warm.
Demand has also risen as construction activities have picked up, and there is also buying as China is set to roll out more infrastructure projects, Lu said.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/energy-commodities/china-steel-surges-on-seasonal-demand-iron-ore-hits-record-high

Obvioulsy nothing BMN did had any effect on the record rise in V late last year which caused their bank account to be filled to the brim with spondolies!! The market caught hold of the fact that this was suddenly a very lucrative commodity to be in... and BM's sp rose to an equally record level accordingly. That has now passed and the sp has reverted back to around the 26-28p reasonable level it was last autumn. On the other hand, the rise from the penny share levels prior to last autumn's 26-28p levels CAN, imo, be fairly attributed to what BM did.

The remarkable drop in in the V 'market price' will therefore imo, can ALSO fairly be said to have undoubtedly contributed in large measures to the subsidence in BM's sp. But imo, the actual opening of the door on the back of that pull back to the perceived short attack in the BM stock is almost entirly attributable to BM's poor industrial relations policies. They have used confusing phrases/wording in their RNS publications about phase 2 and 3 timescales/expectations.... AND the resultant expected increases in production timescales. The groundwork was layed with missing projected production targets for 2018 by a wide margin at a time when they were supposed to be increasing production targets . Then came a whole host of later missed timescales. The door was opened wide for a short attack by the failure to issue a B.E. 2018 Q4 update till the dying days of Q1 2019. And when they eventually did... it contained news of on-going "subsequent' upgrades for the Eskom battery. Rightly or wrongly, there is a strong suspicion that there were further delays in the commissioning of that battery, that was the reason behind the upgrades and that was the reason for the the lateness of the update. In tandem with that... electrolyte samples that were expected to have been sent off during the 2019 Q1 are now not expected to be sent at till some future unknown date... IF the sampling exercise proves to be successful!. All this layered on top of the supposed outlining of a new corporate governance policy concerning capital allocation which was expected to also outline and incorporate a future dividend policy, that not only missed its expected 2018 Q4 target, not TOO bad... but was then officially published and touted in the latest corporate presentation as being a reason for an sp rerate!!! (issued early February). It has not only been delayed further to the 2019 Q1 update, but now put off till the full audited results are published ... probably the last week in June!

ALL at the same time as news that a new head of finance has been appointed with immediate effect! If ever a shorter wanted an open 'come on and get me boys' door to paradise ... BM hve waved them in! If nothing else... the NOMAD (SPA) who, imo they have in their back pocket .... has needs to get a lot stricter with this BOD and the timing and it's use of 'corporate speak' in its future RNS publications.