Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Im out, too many red flags with this company at the moment.
1.7m too big of a mistake, you don't supply that level of product without some payment.
Company says it has no debt, but 11.7m draw down on credit facility. That is debt. This impact profitability
Slow down in signing deals in the summer
CDT is going to take a couple of years
They need to raise cash, administrative costs too high, large capex spend on upgrading to 40000 test and cash to service the debt.
Why does the finance director always have IT issues?
Why is Adam Hill stepping away from media interviews.?
Ive lost money coming out of this, but will move back in if they start beating on their targets
Could we gather a list of question for Cathal so we get a clearer understanding of the business: I have the following suggestions :
1. What is SEEKs intention with the flu asset are they working on developing it? Are they prioritizing other opportunities in their business and not working on the flue vaccine.?
2. Have you looked at selling our 49% to other third parties?
3. Is there government legislation/regulation holding back open orphan signing further CO-VID 19 trails?
4. Can you confirm that Open Orphan will retain an interest in further spin outs
5. Why does Open Orphan not have substantial institutional backing?
feel free to add more. Our questions to Cathal need to be better & more precises to cut through his over exaggeration.
Any one concerned about Cash?
8 million in the bank
5 million loss per year
Of that 8 million, funds need to be spent on Capex for upgrade to 40,000 test. 8 million mostly to be spent on this. 11.5 million of debt overdraft to be paid down over 3 years. That's 4 million per annum.
I think they need cash.
It was positive that they confirmed revenue of 10 million.
what gives you this confidence?
I was impressed by the last update, this update has shown the company has gone backwards. Not moved forward.
There is an investor meets at 3pm lets ask some proper question to find out whats going on:
1. Do you expect the invoice of 1.7m to be paid? How did you release 1.7m worth of test without any payment?
2. There is a pipeline of 160 opportunities, you have only signed two contracts in the last 6 months, what gives you the confidence that a lot more are to follow?
3. Currently you can do around 10,000 test, at 60% capacity that's roughly 6 million in revenue. Can you confirm if you are close to doing this kind of revenue?
4. Have you seen a material uplift in orders from BIODESIX, are they the contractor that owes you 1.7 million?
5. You have drawn down credit facility where you have taken out 11.5 million, how will this be paid? Why in your statements do you say low debt?
6. Do you have enough cash to upgrade the facility to 40,000 units? with high debt, high loss, high capex spend will you be going back to the market for more money?
7. Last statement you proposed a US market listing, has this been done to inflate the share price?
8. Will there be any more upside to the CO-VID 19 Panel
9. Do you expect the CDT Early Lung detection to be used throughout the NHS, if yes what is the time line for adoption.
10. When will the company break even?
Feel free to add more but these questions need to be answered.
Where's the explosive growth?
They havent signed as many contracts as expected.
An invoice of 1.7m has not been paid, will it paid?
We dont have a lot of debt, but drawn down credit facility of 11.5m. Thats debt is it not?
8 million in cash, but still need to pay for all ramp up to £40,000 tests. But losing 5 million a year.
160 opportunities but only signed 2 contracts since May.
I am looking for positives but management are not delivering
Terrible results, not met expectations, quiet summer!
Something needs to turn around to get this thing moving again. Story has changed, it’s a shame.
I think mutex has something and would be of value it’s just whether that meets the expectations of the ownership. The question needs to be asked what are seeks intentions with the asset, if they are not the same as orphan can we sell our holding?
The disconnect that I see is with pool berg. Pool berg are currently showing slides of phase 1 trails worth 100-300mm, easy to sell. We have a drug phase 3 ready and not so easy to sell.
Instead of everyone arguing they should be looking to address the areas of inconsistency.
Orphan is 100% up for sell. Cathal is making a fortune out of the spin outs. In doing this he is de- risking his position in orphan. Once the spin out are complete orphan will be a boring testing company. The only way that cathal can release further value out of the assets is by a merger into a larger company where he retains a shareholding. That’s why we as shareholders must ensure that orphan retains an interest in some of the companies hived off. At least then orphan asset value will increase if the other companies do well.
So this time last year they indicated to the market when results would be published.
Nothing today.
Does that mean results will be delayed? Reason for sell off yesterday? or someone taking down their holding before results are published.
Since July this stock has been very light on contract wins and progress updates. I think its concerning.
Re-assuring words from Cathal. Especially retaining a share in DIM.
Cathal has no control of the share price, only improving the value of the assets. If he can retain a portion of DIM & get cash for the two companies, the share price should be ok.
Hi Enrico,
Could you ask him about Orphan retaining a shareholding in some of the spinoff in particular DIM. Therefore Orphan wont be devalued as much once the demerger happens.
Thanks
This is some boring share, is it going anywhere, have we all bought into the hype?
There’s a lung test which is being trialled in some parts of the nhs but not fully adopted. Does anyone know what’s stopping it getting full adoption?
There’s insights which seems to be good, does anyone know if it going to hit 40000 capacity by April?
There’s a data bank not in anyone’s numbers! Anyone know when it’s going to be in someone’s numbers?
There’s a potential US listing. I can’t see this happening at the current market cap.
No update from biodesix, I think they missed there targets in the summer.
Anyone know when nxt trading update is?
Institutions backed this at the current market cap, did they buy into the hype?
I think I saw that Adam hill gets loads of shares if share price hits milestones. He’s needs to get out and start selling the company.
Anyone trust the cfo? Always has IT issues on presentations, just saying,
I need hope! We need an update!
I am expressing an opinion, why does it matter if I have been in this stock for 5 minutes or a year?
The reason why im posting is that you need to challenge your thoughts & investment decision. You need to see what others think of this company and where it is heading.
Im just putting across my concerns and seeing what the feedback is. Some of the response have been good and educated . Some like you Adzy have been small minded. If you dont challenge yourself and review your investment decisions you could lose money.
The market is clearly not liking the direction of the company. Hence the fall in the share price. This stock is not being manipulated, the market has read the RNS, seen revenue & profit guidance and concurred that its overvalued. (Please dont say this should be on a 40x or 70x pe ratio as currently all it is, is a testing company).
It has assets that can be of value but by hiving them off will reduce value of the core holding. Any spin out we as shareholders only see a small percentage and any gain from that holding will be marked down in the loss of asset value to Open Orphan.
I think unless this changes we will be stuck around the same level or go substantially lower once the next spinoff happens.
I still have a substantial holding in the company and want to see at it at the 30p level, but concerned that it wont do this.
Can somebody please tell me where the infectious disease market is to grow to £250b in the next 3-4 years. I cant find this reported anywhere apart from Cathal!
Just because a share price has been at 30-40p is no guarantee that it will hit this again.
Where is the growth? Once the assets have been off-loaded where does it leave the company.? Yes they can grow the testing, but it wont be high growth & its limited due to cost in getting more quarantine units.
I believe the only way this company can grow the share price is having a significant share in its spin offs. More importantly a shareholding of DIM. It has to happen & management need to be made aware of this.
Once everything is spun off this company is left with a low growth company that will be valued around the 100 million mark. I think Nasdaq is a red herring dangled to shareholders as they believe its access to fortunes and companies being valued at insane values.
Is the share price fall justified?
As a standalone company open orphan should be valued around 100 million. They are forecasting revenue of around 50 million which equates to profit of 5 million. On a multiple of x15 or x 20 it gives a value of around 100 million. As shareholders we should not expect a share price higher then this. The only way it can improve is if Orphan grows revenue, apart from COVID works this may prove difficult as revenue growth can only be achieved by bringing on more facilities, which is not an easy thing.
The only way that Orphan can improve the share price is by realising the value of it non-core assets. Although they are doing this I dont believe they are doing it in such a way that improves share holder value. Yes we get a portion of the company but it is only a fraction of our main holding & devalues Open Orphan.
The only way that I can see Open Orphan share price improving is if Orphan retain a holding in the company it spins off. Cathal is very keen to see Orphan as an EKF, although there spin off have done well EKF shareprice has not reflected this movement. Part of me feels that it suits Orphan management to off-load the whole entity as they profit from being awarded a large percentage of shares + shares from their current holding + a salary from the new company.
I personally believe that as shareholders we need to make management aware that Open Orphan should still hold a large percentage on the newly formed company.
Cathal in his last presentation has stated once spin outs have been completed Open Orphans future lie in a merger with another company. The only reason he stated this is growth is limited. Until these issue are resolved I cannot see the share price moving significantly higher.
Share price is a bit concerning.
But what has changed? I think they are looking to double revenue next year & the year after. The product they supply is proven & underpinned by the number of patients and published papers they have.
It could be that Genostics are selling down their holding. It was reduced after the placing and ONC have taken the Chinese licence off them.
This company only recently raised funds at a 5% premium to the share price. This is very rare & shows what institutions think of the company. Secondly you have a very determined CEO who wants to get the share price moving.
I hope this is just general share fluctuations as I have thrown the kitchen sink at this one.