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Many reasons these last 12 months to be negative - but things will change out of all recognition next 2 years
Legacy and Royston EWT in April 1500 bopd
Coho 1 10 mmcf/d
Coho 2 Similar
Cascadura start up 60 mmcf/d with ramp up to 180 within 18 months
Royston I believe will be huge and if sidetrack comes in at 1000 Bpd - then I’m thinking 5000 bpd is easily doable with development wells
We should be producing 30000 boed net to TXP - Realistic not wildly optimistic and with nothing in for the monster Kraken -more than enough to justify £4 a share and a 6% divi
I’m feeling pretty relaxed to be fair
12p to £4 in 5 years will do for starters
GLA
@Lv1991
Your expectations are seriously underwhelming at £1 for year end - yes we’ve all been through the wringer with TXP this last year but honestly if we are much less than £2 by year end I shall be pretty p***ed off with news flow expected
Timelines have been shot to pieces but now is the time to load up if at all possible
GLA - we deserve it!!!
https://aheadoftheherd.com/8-escondidas-needed-over-the-next-eight-years/
This is why Bushranger /Ascot should be worth a fortune
GLA
Would be happy with a 15p rise on Coho connection news- none of that 2p rise malarkey we used to talk about Photo !!
I also have a bottle of Kraken sat in my drinks cupboard- it will be severely tested on Coho connection I’m not waiting for Kraken drill - that will be another one !!
GLA - I am sensing a good week
Badly burnt here a couple of years ago but am back in this am with £3k - still been watching though and thought now is the time to get back in
Great prospects - oil and gas riding high for the foreseeable
New gas contract I can see being a game changer
GLA
Great investor meeting today - all pretty positive
- confirmed Coho timeline set in stone and Cascadura once EIA is approved in May
- Confirmed the massive development potential of Ortoire with 8 development wells at Casc , a development well at Coho , An updip well at Chinook was mentioned and not forgetting the mighty Cretaceous Kraken amongst steelhead and others and a full field development of Royston (water not an issue to get hung up on )
- Royston to be sidetracked after Coora wells
-
Pretty Happy
GLA
Just looking at instagram of Coho pipe welding - yes at long last moving forward
Pipe s look to me a bit rusty after laying about in the weeds for so long - we don’t want any leaks at this stage
Looking forward to tomorrow’s investor meeting
GLA
Be very interesting to see how London reacts on Monday - nice to rise 20% in line with Canada. I just have a feeling we shall get Coho on line in April and might hear some news next week
My thought this year is £2 by November and £3 a year as now with Cascadura development wells kicking in
I still have the Fendt on the back burner but at this rate I may need all profits to fund fertiliser at £1000 a tonne now ! - it would be a 3 bagger in 8 months
GLA
Just splashed out on another 6313-paid 79p which I consider to be the bargain of a lifetime
I will eat my work boots if this is not above £2 by Xmas( not saying which one !) with Coho /Casc. Phase one and 3 Royston’s on line by then
GLA
Seems to me that the gist of all posts today is where to drill the next hole - my thought is that I’m not too fussed if it’s Coora Royston Cascadura or Coho but if pushed I would say let’s get back to Royston to prove to the market that this is a huge oil pool and STOP fannying about drilling nothing
Let’s get something drilling Paul before I die of frustration
GLA
Thought a good interview- not ramping and realistic
PB states new policy of under promise and over deliver - with Royston in mind
Complete change of thought process with Coho - from being not really important to TXP to being a highly significant step change in production- effectively doubling output
I have always thought Coho on line will be a massively important event in TXP history and look forward to May hookup and start of rerate from the bottom of the barrel so to speak
GLA
@Derbon that single line sums it up beautifully
Huge rollercoaster for me this am - TXP crashing, My North sea gas plays rising strongly-net result down £40k - we keep saying it will come good and it will but I’m fed up of the wait
Could PB arrange a pxss up in a brewery I doubt it
On the plus side though also Wheat markets are on fire at all time highs
- calm here now so I’d better head out to feed the crops with fertiliser that has moved from £250 a tonne to £700 a tonne since last summer - maybe not good after all !!
GLA
Pretty sure market will like overall
Love the mid estimate of 165mmbbl at Royston !!!
Coho now May
Cascadura now September -very happy
Issues with EWT but still ongoing
I think we should now turn the corner- PB for once was a week ahead of us on the RNS
GLA
Mbarn - absolutely agree should be making legacy look like a pin cushion
I guess we are doing 2300 bopd now with 1700 from legacy and 600 from EWT
at $50 netback we should have$ 800k a week of income - more than enough to keep drilling
I see reserves RNS was 7th March last year - do they need an extra week to put all the extra “zeros “ on the reserves figures ??
Beginning to feel like the long awaited rerate is very close now
GLA