Member Info for letsgetrich

Spawn, yes I can

we are roughly at 29 x earnings, based on very high gold prices and better estimates than expected production wise. So assuming all that continues, smooth production and a nice high gold price they have estimated flat earnings next year. Looks simple to me.

Maybe then you guys can explain better the drop in the price. My case looks sensible but I am open to a different view.

And that’s why I tried to tell you a few days ago the SP is now tracking the gold price more than anything else.

Numbers

You only need to look at the March qtr report. I think as of right now we are about 29 x earnings.

It helped that the levels extracted were indeed higher than previously thought BUT we are at record highs right now on gold, it would need to continue upwards.

Just looks a bit expensive right now. Earnings for next year are broadly flat. This is based on production estimates for which there is little track record of currently. Gold would need to keep its upward trajectory to warrant this current price. That’s basically it in a nutshell.

Just offering some balance. I think the original question I responded to sometime ago was why the share price might be down.

Just being realistic, everyone acting like this is a done deal and are going to be retired next year. Good luck, I genuinely hope it does very well.

What was the last dividend payment you recieved?

When did they start buying back shares ?

When did they last dilute ? How much excess cash did they bank the last two qtrs ?

Loggy, very good point! Not as relevant in this scenario though. Paypal is essentially Fin-tech and eBay is E-commerce. They are two different industries.

New and great are both gold mining. It’s more like McDonald’s saying to jimmys burgers you can buy a 100 of our restaurants that we don’t see being in our plans for the future.

Owning a gold mine that the biggest in the business did not want. Only time will tell if it was cheap.

Correct! the market will decide the price and doesn't care about theories or guess work.

And on the subject of share buybacks, no chance. Companies only do this when they have nothing better to do with the money.

Newmont sold off a non tier 1 asset. Who would sell something lucrative.

This is a reflection of the gold price and this stock has been moving with that the last few weeks. Nothing to do with potential and fundamentals of the business.

Anyone could’ve worked out the USA and China would come out of this weekend making positive headlines hence the tank in gold price. I will come back for a look when gold has had a healthy correction.

I’ve said it before but I’ll say it again. This is a tough industry and I’d treat any predictions as very best case scenario. So many unforeseen problems can arise over the course of a few years, this is still classed as a high risk investment. Even Fresnillo weren’t able to mine the amount of silver they wanted in this period due to production problems, and these are big boys.

She will drop tomorrow, that’s it’s for now, gold will retrace as will this.

It’s gone!!

Luckily I cashed out before the close, bit of a bummer as could’ve had another 6 percent but still a nice gain over the last few weeks.

Very true, that will give a good indication.

If it were as simple as just the gold price increasing then companies like Newmont would be at all time highs. You also have no idea what the price will be in 2028, that’s if they hit that target of being ready to go by then.

That's ok, no offence taken. I completely understand the qty is higher and that's why I agree the potential is huge! I have always been slightly skeptical of this MM theory, that they sit there each day manipulating the price of hundreds of stocks, that said i believe some things in the markets are rigged so id be a hypocrite to dismiss it.

The main thing I will keep an eye on going forward is director holdings over the next 12 months.

I was referring to Haverion

I have been trading for many years now and I rarely comment on these things anymore. I've been involved in various shares over the years and had a fair share of big wins and big losses.

This is a very, very tough industry! I have experience from the investment side, always been involved in gold miners over the years, but through my work as part of the supply chain also. This obviously has the POTENTIAL to be huge BUT as so many times problems can occur in the setup and actual delivery of mining the stuff. We are looking at a few years before anything even comes out the ground! Alot can happen.

Gold is in a great moment but who knows where it will be in a few years time, its been heavily manipulated over the years and should probably be over double the price but its not and i wouldn't bet against a sharp retraction. If it does end up much higher then likely hood is everything will cost much more.

I've kicked myself for not taking profit over the years, once 50k up on a share which went bust ( lost it all ) cashed out early and cost myself triple percentage gains on a few occasions. Have a plan and stick to it, Take some profits when you have them. I live off my earnings from trading now but its taken 20 years of learning.

This is still a guess, nothing is certain but could reward those patient for a few years.