Member Info for LemonTree1

Tricky125,

Stay safe and all the best for the Future!

Sergio20,

Please type Ukrainian and not Russian you're acting like you're Zelensky - Fluent in Russian and basic in Ukrainian.

LAMO

Claims of Ukrainians who blew up Nord Stream totally smash the belief they're environmentally friendly country given it's always been getting as much Benjamin's $$$ from the start.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/15/ukrainian-team-blew-up-nord-stream-pipeline-claims-report

"The Nord Stream leak was already viewed as one of the largest human-caused methane releases in history."

https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/pipeline-blasts-released-record-shattering-amount-methane-unep-study#:~:text=Up%20to%20485%2C000%20tonnes%20of,caused%20methane%20releases%20in%20history.

FXPO SP fall has Nothing to do with Trump as the rare earth minerals are located in Donbas and FXPO is not in this locale or this business field of mineral extraction.

This FXPO SP fall is purely a corrupt Ukrainian government who are desperate to find funding to extent the Ukraine proxy war longer than necessary given USAID has ended.

As for FXPO, this is a risky stock and only a change of the whole Ukrainian government and Ukrainian administration can seed a recovery in FXPO SP. Nevertheless, FXPO is still a shake tree on the SP, a gamble and long hold. Will go bottom buying more FXPO stock once the dust settles.

Business as Usual?

This is a Ukrainian boy YouTube channel (shadow-banned by YT) reporting about the rebuilding of Mariupol.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwiGUWM44sE

I doubt Russia want's to give a bad impression to the World that Donbas will be left as a pile of rubble for years and hence Russia have every interest to rebuild everything from residential, commercial to industrial as to ensure their new citizens are safe and happy.

This is what Baghdad look like in 2024 filmed by a Swede.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZAdiQFrJjM

I believe the war will end this year in 2025 given the West and Ukraine have exhausted all it's weapons, the US has cut USAID to Ukraine and more importantly there's no enough Ukrainian people to be conscripted or trained to the basic level to fight in the frontlines which is a matter of urgency.

The faster the war ends, the better odds that FXPO will remain intact and Odessa and FXPO in Ukraine's territory/ ownership; and hence a future for FXPO. If FXPO falls into Russia ownership (land taken) then say goodbye to FXPO as investment/punt and most certainly a sharp fall in the FXPO SP.

I'm risking my money (amount to buy a new car) on this stock but the longer the war last, then I my have to reduce it to playing with house money so the worst scenario is I break-even if the worst outcome materialises .

Trump ending the Ukraine proxy war in never realistic given the funding and support comes from many sources. So for every head chopped off, the Hydra would regrow two heads and the Ukraine proxy war will continue on. Therefore, Trump has to tackle it with logic and closing 'USAID' is a step in the right direction in dealing with the root causes first to stop the growth permanently.

Trump Finally Puts America First.

https://youtu.be/WfACQU4yzX4?si=_Z3YddasQrkVmUhj

Yup... stock manipulation the norm.

The SP rose last week for 4 days whilst there was more sell volume than buy volume on the FXPO stock.

My fears realised.

- They should of IPO in US and not UK. (red flag)

- Never trust a company that changes it's company name. (red flag)

A last ditched hope is for a white knight to buy this company as opposed to starting a new company in the ai and cancer detection/cure from scratch.

FXPO holding up above £1.10.

So building a great price support level ready to one day in the near future test new SP highs.

Sir Winston Churchill and Putin fought Naz2is and protected their own country / people.

Can that be said about the Ukraine post 2014 who lost it's own independence and sovereignty and chose the wrong path in history?

Give up on hating Putin \ Russia, the Hague and work on getting Ukraine's independence back by getting rid of foreign interference from both sides. Without peaceful change in Ukraine and accepting the realities it faces, Ukraine might not exist in the future be it land wise or the honest Ukrainian people who walk on this planet earth.

Ukraine will definitely not recover or recover slow after the war for the following reasons:

- Majority of male workforce 18 -25yr old (tbc) and 26 - 60yr old has been conscripted and loss to this war.

- Ukraine's skilled workers and wealth have exited Ukraine and unlikely to see it return back.

- Ukraine cut itself from cheap factor inputs like oil, gas, nuclear, fertilisers and hence will no long competitive in low cost provider on their exports on the world stage.

- Ukraine will need to rebuild and little western countries will really invest if corruption is still so high.

- Ukraine have been in a war for the last 3 year and their foreign customers have looked elsewhere for replacement products and services.

I've revised my grow expectations on FXPO and £2.50 to £2.95 seems the best exit price given the country risk and the country is going to be no longer the lowest cost producer on the world stage.

Apple and Google have abandon their EV car development because Tesla is doing a good job and the Western (traditional ICE car manufacturers) are at least 10yrs behind China in battery/EV production. The West needs to spend more on R&D and start copying China rather than ranting on that China is still copying the West. Heck let Chinese companies open up in the west on at 50:50 joint venture so we can learn how to manufacture again and one day in the future we might take the move in the next generation to have some more 100% British manufacturing companies.

In 2018 wasn't too much sanctions on Russia and especially on Russians.

Citigroup is a US company they performed their due diligence to ensure compliance to US and international laws.

This is a Nothing Burger news given the above and if so then lets see Citigroup get fined for their regulatory breaches.

Kind of like 'Roman Abramovich' owner of Chelsea Football Club June 2003 – 20 June 2022. Not a regulatory breach.

What's more worrying is 90% of media in Ukraine reply on foreign grants, mostly from USAID, according to the head of Ukraine's Institute of Mass Information. So not really independent for Ukraine's media\news which is really a mouth piece for the DEEP STATE to smear Elon given Elon is interfering in UK and German politics. A bit like two tier Starmer sending 100 FTE staff to USA to help Kamala win the 2024 US elections. All is fair!

It's good that Trump has put a 90 day freeze on Foreign Aid which aligns to his MAGA objective.

Sir John Betjeman, CBE was an English poet, writer, and broadcaster. He was Poet Laureate from 1972 until his death. He was a founding member of The Victorian Society and a passionate defender of Victorian architecture, helping to save St Pancras railway station from demolition.

These poems makes me want to buy more FXPO shares.

TwoCents: Here's Deepseek's answer.

Upon the Mighty Ferrexpo:

Hark! Hearken to the tale I tell,

Of Ferrexpo, whose fortunes swell.

From Ukraïne's rich and fertile land,

Doth rise this lord of iron's hand.

With mines deep-carved in earth's embrace,

They draw forth ore with steadfast pace.

Through fiery forge and hammer's ring,

To pellets wrought, their wealth doth spring.

A boon to trade, a gift to steel,

Their labors vast, their purpose real.

From humble earth, such power flows,

To build the world where commerce grows.

Yet storms do brew, and trials test,

As war and woe the land infest.

Still Ferrexpo, with heart of might,

Doth stand and strive through darkest night.

O noble enterprise, so bold,

Thy story through the ages told,

Shall sing of toil, of strength, of gain,

A beacon 'midst the tempest's strain.

So raise the cup, let praises sound,

For Ferrexpo, by virtue crowned.

In iron's name, their legacy,

Shall echo through eternity.

Some additional info about FXPO:

[Geopolitics aside on Deepseek, this might be helpful in giving us retail investors\traders an edge in buying and selling FXPO.]

Additional FXPO FAQ which I cut and pasted below:

Looking at the recent market sentiments online is the company Ferrexpo plc a good share to buy now?

Analyst Sentiment:

Analysts have a median 12-month price target of 88.82 GBX, with a high estimate of 98.42 GBX and a low estimate of 60.01 GBX. While the median target suggests a potential downside from the current price of 105.60 GBX, some analysts believe the stock is undervalued by up to 50%. Source: FT 24-01-2025 & Simply Wall St 08/01/2025

Long-Term Growth Potential:

Ferrexpo is forecast to grow earnings by 70.8% and revenue by 4.9% annually, with EPS expected to grow by 61% per year. This growth is considered above the market average. Source: Simply Wall St 08/01/2025

Valuation Metrics

Price/Sales Ratio: 0.91 (2025 forecast), indicating the stock is relatively undervalued compared to historical levels.

Forward P/E Ratio: 27.56, suggesting the stock is priced for future growth but may be considered expensive by some metrics.

Return on Equity (ROE): Forecasted at 5.5% in three years, which is relatively low but expected to improve as earnings grow.

Conclusion:

Ferrexpo plc offers significant growth potential, particularly for investors willing to tolerate geopolitical and market risks. Its strong production growth, financial stability, and commitment to ESG principles are positive indicators. However, the stock’s current price may already reflect some of this optimism, and the risks associated with its Ukrainian operations cannot be ignored.

Recommendation: Ferrexpo could be a good buy for risk-tolerant investors with a long-term horizon, especially if they believe in the recovery of the iron ore market and the resolution of geopolitical tensions. Conservative investors may want to wait for clearer signs of stability or a more attractive entry point.

Taverham,

Here's another interesting question I asked Deepseek with the internet search functionality turned on.

[Geopolitics aside on Deepseek, this might be helpful in giving us retail investors\traders an edge in buying and selling FXPO.]

What are the most frequent price support and price resistance level for the company Ferrexpo plc share since 2009?

Based on the historical data and analysis provided in the search results, the most frequent price support and resistance levels for Ferrexpo plc (FXPO) shares since 2009 can be summarized as follows:

Key Price Support Levels

38.15 GBX: This is the lowest price level recorded in the past year (2024) and represents a significant support level during periods of extreme market stress, such as the ongoing geopolitical risks in Ukraine.

60.60 GBX - 61.30 GBX: These levels have acted as strong support during the 3-month and 6-month periods, indicating a baseline for recovery during volatile market conditions.

90.00 GBX: This level has been tested multiple times in 2024 and 2025, serving as a psychological and technical support level during market downturns.

100.00 GBX - 101.40 GBX: This range has been a recurring support level, particularly in early 2025, as seen in the price movements during January 2025.

Key Price Resistance Levels

105.00 GBX - 106.40 GBX: This range has been a consistent resistance level in early 2025, with the price struggling to break above this range multiple times.

110.00 GBX - 111.60 GBX: This range has acted as a resistance level during January 2025, with the price peaking around this level before retracing .

124.00 GBX: This is the highest price level recorded in the past year (2024) and represents a significant resistance level during recovery phases.

150.00 GBX - 151.20 GBX: Historically, this range has been a strong resistance level, as noted in technical analyses from 2020, where the stock struggled to break above this level.

Summary of Trends

Support Levels: The most frequent support levels are clustered around 90.00 GBX, 100.00 GBX, and 60.60 GBX, reflecting the stock's tendency to find buyers at these levels during downturns.

Resistance Levels: The most frequent resistance levels are around 105.00 GBX, 110.00 GBX, and 124.00 GBX, indicating areas where selling pressure has historically increased.

Additional Insights

The stock has shown significant volatility due to geopolitical risks, particularly the war in Ukraine, which has influenced both support and resistance levels.

The 52-week range of 38.15 GBX to 124.00 GBX highlights the extreme volatility and the importance of these levels in technical analysis.

PART2:

Risks to Consider

Geopolitical and Operational Risks:

Ferrexpo’s operations are heavily concentrated in Ukraine, which remains in a state of conflict due to the ongoing war with Russia. This exposes the company to risks such as energy grid attacks, logistical disruptions, and higher input costs.

The company relies on importing electricity from the EU at high tariffs, which has increased operational costs.

Market Volatility:

Iron ore prices have been volatile, with benchmark prices briefly falling to levels last seen in 2022. This volatility, combined with high input costs, has pressured Ferrexpo’s margins.

The company’s ability to maintain profitability depends on sustained demand for high-grade iron ore pellets, particularly from key markets like China.

Humanitarian and Workforce Challenges:

Ferrexpo has lost 45 employees since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with 10 fatalities reported in 2024 alone. Additionally, 700 employees were serving in the Ukrainian Armed Forces as of December 2024, which could impact workforce stability.

Legal and Debt Proceedings:

While Ferrexpo recently resolved a debt claim against its Ukrainian subsidiary, such legal proceedings highlight potential financial and operational risks in its local operations.

Conclusion

Ferrexpo plc presents a mixed investment profile. On one hand, its strong production growth, financial stability, and commitment to ESG principles make it an attractive option for investors seeking exposure to the iron ore market. On the other hand, the company faces significant geopolitical, operational, and market risks due to its reliance on Ukrainian operations and the volatile nature of commodity prices.

Recommendation: Ferrexpo may be suitable for risk-tolerant investors who are comfortable with exposure to geopolitical uncertainties and commodity market fluctuations. However, conservative investors may want to monitor the situation closely or consider more stable alternatives.

Taverham,

I've re-run the question again but this time using the 'internet search' functionality in Deepseek which should give a more updated status on FXPO.

Is Ferrexpo plc a safe company to invest in from the online news articles in the last year?

PART1:

Based on the online news articles from the last year, Ferrexpo plc demonstrates both strengths and risks as an investment opportunity. Below is an analysis of key factors to consider when evaluating its safety as an investment:

Strengths Supporting Investment Safety

Strong Production Growth:

Ferrexpo reported a 66% increase in total production for FY2024, reaching 6.9 million tonnes, compared to 4.15 million tonnes in FY2023. This growth reflects operational resilience and improved access to export markets, particularly through Ukrainian Black Sea ports.

The company achieved a record production of 0.5 million tonnes of Ferrexpo DR pellets (FDP), a high-quality product that generates higher revenue.

Financial Stability:

As of December 31, 2024, Ferrexpo maintained a net cash position of approximately $99 million, with no debt and minimal lease obligations. This indicates a strong balance sheet and financial flexibility.

The company re-entered the FTSE 250 index in December 2024, reflecting improved market recognition and performance.

Commitment to Safety and ESG:

Ferrexpo has reported zero fatalities for over four years and continues to prioritize employee safety and community support. Its rolling 12-month Lost Time Injury Frequency Rate (LTIFR) was 0.62 as of November 2024, slightly above the historic average but still demonstrating a strong safety record.

The company publishes annual Responsible Business Reports, highlighting its efforts in decarbonization, employee wellbeing, and community initiatives.

Operational Adaptability:

Despite disruptions to Ukraine’s energy grid, Ferrexpo successfully operated two out of four pelletising lines in Q4 2024, focusing on higher-quality products. This adaptability has helped mitigate challenges such as high electricity tariffs and logistical constraints.