Member Info for lemmink

Very scary- embarrassingly I’m only just facing up to that news - wipe out fear back on the table ...

From page 167 of the audited accounts ... "in 2018 the group established a conditional share award plan (CSAP) ... blah blah blah" --- 948,287 awards were granted in the year (2018: 810,637) ... no shares have yet vested under the CSAP
*** My comment ***
That's a frightening and frankly disgusting rate of planned dilution -- not bad enough to make me sell at a loss - but FFS!

The share price WILL go UP by 17.5p on monday because ... it probably WILL NOT ... so there!

bought 2k @ £1.23 ish - holding 22k .. run out of cash - sell off seems relentless -- might have to sulk for a bit or a few months!!

Bought 2.5k @ £1.29 ish ... holding 20k

Probably bad terminology — meant to say losses that can be offset against future profits for tax purposes - kier has over £300 million of such losses, from memory - not sure what constraints may exist on their application.

My guesses for the future are that the KL disposal will not take place because utilisable taxed losses make it more valuable to the group than to a potential buyer without utilisable taxed losses (I am not a tax expert so may be wrong about that?).
The balance sheet will be worked back to health over a 5 year period - by retaining earnings generated (without being smashed to pieces by exceptional bad stuff any more!) and those earnings will sufficient to justify a share price of circa £5 by then.
Discounting £5 by 5% pa for five years (time value of money discount) gives a present value (excluding risk) of about £3.80 I think; so the current share price of £1.17 appears to me to be offering a discount of roughly 70% to intrinsic value for risk.
In my opinion the risk is front loaded and so should start or has started to diminish with time.

UAH and GBP both appreciating - could these be significant drivers behind the current share price down trend?

Bought 2.5k @ £1.34 ish - holding 17.5k — bloody game

Yep a bit mixed - dark adding

Sold 5k @ 46p — scraping the bottom of the barrel- wanted some more Fxpo instead

Bought 2.5k @ £1.44 ish ... holding 15k

Bought 2.5k @ a little under £1.53 ... holding 12.5k — £1.50 or below has always (ish) been conviction buy territory for me ... not really expecting to see it and don’t really have the cash to play it - won’t be surprised to see it though!

Not aware of any recent news to explain ... may be one of the instis has had enough time to weigh up the results and take decisive action? ... I think the share price is in cheap territory, but whatever.
Re the planned kier living disposal I’m indifferent to mildly against as I think the value lost from surrendering earnings power is likely to be less than fully offset by any disposal proceeds.

Hi I’m holding 80,000 shares for clarity - no need for you to feel obliged to believe me - this is a bad day for my position as I am running low on cash and now the sp is a little under my break even — had I been quicker with my research etc my conviction might have been higher earlier

Bought 5k @ £1.084 ish - holding 80k - ffs! Wtf! Etc

72p for upto just under 30% - nice to see but the price is too low - not interested

Bought 2.5k @ a little under £1.64 - holding 10k
— the banking thing was years ago & Fxpo took losses from it - so cant see why it should impact negatively now...

Bought 2.5k @ £1.74 ish - holding 7.5k - can’t afford a big panic

Bought 2.5k @ £1.36 ish - holding 75k - historic price to underlying/ pre exceptional earnings of 3 @ £1.41 —- forward ratio hopefully better - but probably still got significant non underlying/ exceptional costs to bear.