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Hello, my last buy was a mistake I was trying to get the dividend but I'm pretty sure it was xd now... I think my trading on this had been harmless/ vaguely profitable ... I just kind of do it to maintain a reasonable level of exposure and try to defend the price a bit ... I think because of the liquidity it's possible to be price maker from time to time. I would like it to be 80p for a while as that would fit with my take on things, but it seems to have slackened off a bit.
A very poor partial exit point for me ... a stress reaction related to exposure levels ... didn't know what to do so cut it in half ... below £1.50 I think it starts to head into conviction buy territory ... above that my opinion I think is very susceptible to influence from the price ... ho hum
Thanks for your comment, I think it was re-reading this from the half yearly report that's given me the heebie jeebies ...
"Ferrexpo's dividend policy is to pay a base level of sustainable dividends through the commodities cycle of approximately US$40 million per annum (or 6.6 US cents per year). The dividend will be split equally between an interim dividend and a final dividend payable normally in October and May, following respectively the Company's interim results and Annual General Meeting."
I know they've been paying double and a bit more lately and on earnings metrics were probably at a PE ratio of 4-5, but the base level of "sustainable" dividends on its own particularly with the swiss WHT barely supports a share price of £1 imo.... ironically I had these sort of concerns at the £1.50 level on the way up but dismissed them as silly on seeing it pass £2 etc, good luck
Bought 2.5k @ £1.526 ish (£1.537 with dealing costs) ... holding 47.5k ... ****ed off, but curious ... the normal dividends are circa 4 x 1.6p (after the withholding tax) ... using a 5% yield to price that gives £1.28 ... but the normal dividends from memory are 50% base and 50% special ??? Also last year also from memory Fxpo paid an extra 3.2p (post whtax)
from the ferrexpo website ...
http://www.ferrexpo.com/sites/default/files/attachments/pdf/dividend-letter-2018.pdf
(i) UK tax resident shareholders
The current double tax treaty between the United Kingdom and Switzerland may entitle
you to a certain reclaim of Swiss Withholding Tax on the dividend. Qualifying UK resident
shareholders will be able to claim back 4/7ths of the 35 per cent Swiss Withholding Tax,
leaving a net tax cost of 15 per cent of the taxation levied by the Swiss authorities on the
basis that you are, under UK taxation law, already obliged to pay tax on the gross amount
of the dividends (which are treated as income for taxation purposes) received from the
Company.
RECLAIM PROCEDURES
(ii) UK resident shareholders
Three copies of Swiss tax Form 86, duly completed and signed, must be sent to the
to the tax office in the United Kingdom to whom your income tax return is made (or to
the tax office for the district in which you reside, if you have not made such a return).
The tax office has to certify the forms and the claimant shall subsequently send the
first two copies of the claim to the Federal Tax Administration of Switzerland,
Eigerstrasse 65, CH 3003 Berne, Switzerland, no later than 31 December of the third
year following the calendar year in which the dividend became due. Rights to
repayment arising in one calendar year must be claimed in a single claim. The
relevant Form 86 can be found or ordered on the homepage of the Swiss Federal
Tax Administration (http://www.estv.admin.ch).
The claim must be accompanied by evidence of deduction of Swiss Withholding Tax.
In general, a certificate of deduction, signed bank voucher or credit slip will satisfy
this requirement. A dividend voucher will be provided at the time of payment.
However, the Swiss administration reserves the right to request further evidence and
information.
Dividend statements issued by financial institutions outside of Switzerland must be
accompanied by an additional Tax Voucher for a valid claim of refund of Swiss
Withholding Tax. The Tax Voucher has to be provided by the financial institution.
The claim form may be filed by a representative on behalf of the beneficial owner,
provided that the representative is formally authorised by a power of attorney (which
must be attached to the form).
Please note: If your Ordinary Shares are held through a custodian, then the reclaim
may be automatically generated on your behalf. You should therefore check with
your custodian whether the reclaim will be made on your behalf.
We have been advised by the Swiss tax authorities that refunds may take some
months to obtain, so you are advised to make your application as soon as possible.
Refunds will be paid in Swiss francs.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/NTBR/13718188.html
I make it underlying / adjusted EPS of 11.3p vs 11.2p in the previous year ... so I think the acquisition of H Peel is currently just about proving to be earnings enhancing despite the 461,538 shares issued (nominally) at 82p ish in part consideration for it, and despite the dilution arising from the exercising of some staff options at much lower prices.
They give adjusted EPS at 12.5p for the year and their calculations are given in note 3 to the accounts. The profit figure they get is circa £200k higher than mine and they divide it by 18.27 million shares instead of the 18.5 million I used. According to the rns dated 12 April this year there are now 18,511,722 shares in existence and a further 369,540 in treasury.
Cash flow per share (excluding changes in inventories) I get at 18.7p vs 15.6p a year previously, using 18.5 million shares for both years.
I think there is a 4p a year drag on cash flow per share that will persist for another year or so due to the earn out arrangements, it could be more if H Peel meet the criteria triggering contingent extra consideration for the acquisition... once this is out of the way underlying EPS could improve by 3p or more?
Net debt stands at 8.6p a share according to my calcs and includes 5p of earn out costs to H Peel (deferred consideration).
Bought 3.5k @ £1.88 ish ... holding 37.5k ... no idea what my average is ... down quite heavily on the year to date for this stock... was trading very actively earlier in the year (made things worse probably?) ... I think it's a hold/gentle accumulate from here? ... can't see the bottom ... only willing to buy new lows (and in small amounts) for the time being ... currently unwilling or at least very reluctant to consider selling any for less than £2.25 ... iron price outlook ??? ... trump/china macro economic stuff ??? Wtf is going on...