Member Info for Legalwolf

Agreed. If so, we then have the rest of this week to hit 9p, before the JORC lands next week.

At this rate, we are going to breakout by Friday, well before the JORC lands!!! And if this dream scenario does happen, then how high do we then go on the actual JORC, followed by the DFS, when there's no overhead resistance.

Is there a better opportunity right now than BRES?

Nevermind running, think I need to lie down. GLA

PFG - I will do a Rocky Balboa at the top of the stairs when we get to the 9p summit. Both I and the share price will then likely explode.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBNOsPP2yhw

Very strong volume coming in. If we breakout before the JORC even lands next week, then 'on boy'......

That's just on the FUNDAMENTALS. Arguably on the TECHNICALS, things are looking even better. You can't ask for much more than the following:

1) A multi year base - breakouts from these tend to lead to the biggest moves up. Amongst the very best setups you will find.

2) Stock moving towards the high of this base - shows that the market is actually reacting to the fundamentals. So not a hit and hope, but an actual move developing.

3) No overhead resistance above the base - which means the path is clear for the share price to just go on a run.

4) Seasonally strongest period of the year - tends to be the November to January months.

5) Strong institutional interest - we have large holders, others appear to be loading up and the BOD have recently spoken about the strong interest they have been receiving and are expecting post DFS. Their buying will fuel the move up and they will buy the dips.

The JORC and DFS will be like the starting pistol being fired. But as with any run, it might race off before they arrive!

VERY important to also remember that the 15 to 20% of NPV is based on the PRE-funding valuation. POST funding you are looking at 40% of NPV!

So important to also factor in the funding options that BRES appear to have here with the DFC/AFC etc, from the "batting away offers", and from the "significant" new interest that they are expecting post DFS.

What does the unbiased, indifferent and unemotional AI think?

"While a specific new number has not been released, all indicators point to a post-tax NPV significantly higher than the $482 million from the PFS, potentially placing it closer to or exceeding the billion-dollar mark, especially once the downstream component is fully valued in the study."

The low CAPEX, enhanced JORC and SPG plant will be the main factors. The SPG is likely to be game changer though. The annual revenues from it will be huge.

I'm going for a baseline expectation of $700 million NPV, but a part of me does think the SPG (and lower CAPEX) could deliver a figure much higher than this based on peer comparisons.

Looking very strong - there can't be many more stocks that are setting up so well both technically and fundamentally. I did say a few months back that if we can get to the summit of this multi year base for when the first of the big ticket items lands, then we will undoubtedly breakout of this multi year base, into double digits and onto triple digit gains. With the JORC to land next week, so far this scenario looks very much likely to play out.

So last few trading sessions to take a position in BRES before the bigger move up/re-rate. All imo and GLA

I suspect it's a share trading racquet of the back of a good story - milk it for as much as they can.

Start of a Xmas rally? Just needs to get back towards 22/23p and the reversal is very much in play.

Inside spread is also the tightest I can recall for some time.

Looking good for the run up to next week's JORC. Can sell very large volume inside the spread on a dummy quote! Not that I have intention of letting any go so cheaply! Can see this testing 8p soon, and then we are at the summit of this multi year base. Breakout from there into new all time highs and the blue sky opens up, with no overhead resistance above 9.5p.

Seasonally strongest period of the year.

BRES is looking VERY good to deliver something quite significant!

Wow that is an exciting comparison. Clearly something BIG is going to be announced here by month end. Share price heading towards double digits imho.

The 15-20% figure rises to 40% post funding. Any potential buyer will have to factor this in and the funding options that BRES have. In these circs, an early offer for OC makes the most sense.

MR has also said that any offer will have to reflect the true value of the project!

It will be fascinating to see what happens.

I didn't take your posts to be deramps. I also agree that expectations need to be tempered - although to hear MR speak in the way that he has been doing (and notably not dismiss the $1 billion suggestion as unrealistic on TWO occassions) that is hard to do. But I think most of us have a baseline expection of around $700 million for the NPV.

Finally, we have to remember that MR is not your typical "rampy" CEO. In fact, he has a reputation (esp on here) for being honest, measured, and if anything, more on the cautious side. To hear him talk in terms of "smashing it out of the park", "a significant uplift" and delivering an "outstanding result", etc, does make you really believe that something BIG is about land here at the end of the month. I really don't think he would talk in these terms if he didn't have VERY high confidence of this. Again all imo and dyor

In fact, it might also help to summarise what MR said, and you can see how it all fits in:

1) About half of the existing 25 million tonnes in the PFS was "reserves". The aim of the infill drilling was to "deliver a significant increase" to this figure. This in turn delivers a "longer LOM", and "produces at higher rates of tonnage". In this respect, the drilling has been "very successful".

2) It also impacts on the "mine sequencing" and allows for "a faster payback period". "Essentially for the same amount of tonnage, you get more end product and more revenues at an early stage." Hence the drilling/JORC will make a positive impact on the payback model.

3) We have found TWO NEW DEPOSITS (Beehive and Lion). The drilling here has also been very successful. Now, these COULD still get into the JORC, but MR can't say whether enough drilling has been done to bring them into the JORC. (But he's "not too fussed" if these just sit as an exploration target for now, as it won't take much to get them into the JORC in the near future!)

So the JORC will deliver an uplift in the NPV/IRR through the above. However, it is one factor amongst a number that will achieve a higher NPV for BRES. Away from the drilling/JORC, MR also explained all the other work that will also help deliver a higher NPV and IRR. Here you have the SPG ("this will make a huge difference"), offtake, better infrastructure access, costs ("we have hit these very hard"), low capex, etc.

In this interview, MR spoke about delivering an "outstanding result". In the previous interview, he referred to "smashing it out of the park". I think we can be confident that the end result will be WELL worth the wait. All imo and dyor

There is little question that the JORC will play a key role in delivering a higher NPV. MR has comprehensively covered this in the interview. But, to understand his answers better, it helped me to understand in more general terms how drilling/JORC helps improve a NPV in the first place. I'm no expert, but if you ask AI, you get some of the basics behind this and enough to understand where the JORC fits in. When you analyse this against what MR said in the interview, you understand exactly how the JORC is going to help the NPV. It is not the only factor of course, there are other aspects, which will also help to deliver that material uplift. But so far as the drilling/JORC goes, you have the following:

1) Greater Certainty in the Resource - which reduces risk, allows more accurate FCF projections, both of which increase NPV.

2) Upgraded Resource Classification - drilling helps convert "indicated" "resource" into JORC standard "reserves" - this is key in securing offtake and financing, which again reduces project risk.

3) Refine Resource Estimates - volume, continuity and grade.

4) Optimises Mine Planning - mine sequencing allows for optimising the cash flow generated.

5) Reduces the Project Risk and the Discount Rate - drilling de-risks the project in the ways highlighted above, and a lower discount rate directly affects the NPV.

6) Increases LOM.

Now when you go back and listen to MR's answer against the above, it all starts to fit in better. At least it has for me!

Thanks Guitar - I certainly hope that proves to be the case. Good luck with your investment here as well!

Highest price in 3 years and most bullish candle on this current run up.

When you consider that the much awaited big ticket items (JORC and DFS) are still to land, then so far so good. From today's excellent interview, the fact that MR is expecting strong institutional interest in BRES and will be going on a big marketing drive following the DFS, and that considers £100 million mcap as the LOWER end of the valuation chain for the company, were the biggest factors for me.

A really strong JORC will simply increase the anticipation for what should be an equally strong DFS. As I said, so far, so good and hopefully much more to come here over what should be a really exciting run into Xmas and the New Year. GLA