Member Info for Legalwolf

Zendor - that just seems like a really nice and polite way of saying that you think I am a de-ramper. I appreciate you being nice about it though, as others sharing that suspicion have been downright nasty and abusive at times. But otherwise join what is a growing club I guess.

In fact, if you recall when He1 were aiming for drilling in 2022, before they had to concede defeat due to not having a Rig, there was never any question of them drilling in November/December 2022. In fact, they had to give a revised timeline of January/February 2023. Was that revised timeline to do with likely weather conditions, or purely time needed to find the Rig and put the operation together?

I think many of you are missing the point. This is not like planning a trip to the beach with a few friends or family, where the weather forecast might make you think twice, but you think let's not cancel it all together, and decide last minute. It's a drill programme costing millions, where you need to be 110% certain that weather conditions pose no risk at all.

Put differently, would Noble have booked the Marriot Rig if it was only available to spud their first well in November?

"... with no evidence to suggest it won’t happen, but plenty of questions which still need answering."

I would perhaps reverse this, and argue that without the answers to these big questions, there is no evidence to suggest or be confident that it will happen! And if she can't give you a timeline, then major red flag signal and evidence that it isn't happening, or happening any time soon.

But anyway, let's see what happens between now and February 2024, and what she says at the next Q&A. All imo and dyor

There are some things that are outside the company's control - like the terrible market conditions. So you cut the company some slack on things that are outside their control. But it's really hard to fathom how slow they are actually progressing projects, whilst claiming to be really excited about them and that they are making considerable progress. How many of us reading the December 2022/January 2023 Tati RNS's were expecting that no drilling would actually take place at Tati in 2023? Those are NOT the expectations that were set and the progress actually being made is not matching the rhetoric. This is on the company and not the market conditions.

0.5p incoming here sadly by the looks of it.

Would the company proceed on the basis of expected weather forecasts though. Would they chance it in that way? Both Noble and He1 have always spoken about 'having enough time to drill', which they only need to worry about in if there is indeed a weather window in Tanzania where drilling does not take place. I suppose He1 has its own Rig so doesn't have to worry as much as Noble does about how long to contract the Rig etc for?

Mental - I made my position clear a few weeks back. I said I would wait until after the placing shares are admitted. And that I wanted to know when ECR will be drilling. I don't see the point of getting in ahead of these risks!

There is an active pump and dump crew on this BB. I think you know that already.

The point was meant to be more about timescale for resuming drilling, rather than whether they can fix the engine at all. I have no reason to believe that they won't fix it. As for timescale, we know what happened with the long lead items, so you can never be "sure" about such things, but if LB has given it a "two week" window, then the timescale for the fix will be of "weeks" and not "months". So no issue there either.

As for Itumbula drilling still happening in Q4, that is directly dependant on the above, and so not a de-ramp, and worthy of discussion.

That's why, and you might have noticed, that my questions/suggestions (e.g. what is the timeline, let's hear from other BOD as well, etc) are always directed more towards trying to establish whether this is genuine and credible in the first place!

AG1989 - we did discuss the timing issue on several occasions. You probably thought, like many, that I was just de-ramping the stock. I don't think your timing is a problem at all, or that this is even 'the issue'. I think it's more fundamental than that, it's whether you have backed a genuine project, or one that will only ever exist in brochure form because it is a lifestyle ramp? Whilst you do not agree or share this concern, I hope you have enough sense to at least keep the possibility/risk in your mind, especially as a number of people have expressed this view on here as well, and not just me as the so called resident de-ramper. All imo and dyor

It's mid 20s despite all the pumping on here. Once all the shine of the new BOD wears off, it will come back to when will ECR be drilling. Without drilling, or some other value enhancing news, not fluff or jam tomorrow, the share price only goes one way. Let's see where the share price is by the end of this month. I suspect it will be nearer the placing price than it is now. All imo and dyor

Assuming they get can fix the engine and resume drilling, the only real consequence that I can see is whether they will still be able to drill Itumbula in Q4, or whether that will have to move Itumbula to Q1?

But I guess if Noble are still saying they have time to drill two wells, and they haven't yet spudded the first, then no reason why He1 can't as well?

At least the placing has woken everybody up in a sense of focussing on the key issues.

Ridiculous spread at the moment, and so probably not much on offer for traders either?

According to the RNS, the placing shares will be admitted next week. Therefore, there will be no further debate about what might happen if/when they do land, or that they have been forward sold already, etc. With no drilling plans announced by ECR, it will be interesting to see if the share price falls in the coming weeks. You can tell by this post, that I suspect it might do. All imo and dyor

Logically, you shouldn't mind de-ramping right now, because if de-rampers are 'successful', it gives you an opportunity to buy even more shares in a company you feel very excited about?

Yesterday, on reading the Tati RNS, I found myself feeling very annoyed and thinking we are being taken for mugs here.

This is what PJ said in December 2022/January 2023 when they commenced the current work programme:

"We have therefore accelerated next stage Project exploration plans, through which we believe we can move the Project forward quite considerably." And with this was promised RC and Diamond drilling. I remember debating at the time whether the planned 2000metres of drilling was anywhere near good enough? This week, we find out, that they are still soil sampling. No mention of when even this limited drilling is going to start. We all know, and so should SW, that the market is never excited by soil sampling, and only drilling results can move the needle.

Is it me getting overly frustrated or impatient, or is this actually rather pathetic and slow progress at what is meant to be one of our flagship and most promising projects, making the whole project just seem like it's another 'duster' that is being dragged out for as long as possible? All imo and dyor

Am I being overly harsh, or is this all rather lame and pathetic?

I also thought LB looked a bit nervy, but then I don't think she is that great in front of the cameras anyway. That said, the questions, from the usually mild interviewer, were a bit punchier than normal, and she handled them as well as could be.

At least Noble will be spudding in this time. That might be a bonus if they report Helium shows. Some good might come out of this delay in that sense?

How readily are reconditioned engines available v going for individual parts, and bearing they are needed in Tanzania?

AG1989 - I think the next dilution is virtually guaranteed to happen before the financing, when you look at the work that needs to be completed to get to that consortium financing stage. In fact, more than one dilution, and probably 12 -18 months of it. But again, no timeline means no one knows, and that is one of the biggest problems with this. Whilst some holders are calling for her to go, you should ALL be insisting that if she is to remain, she gives you all a timeline, even if indicative, for getting to financing. Otherwise you are potentially letting her get away with what others think is a lifestyle operation. If it's all genuine and strategically mapped out as she is asserting (albeit loosely and vaguely), there is no reason why she won't be able to say roughly when these workstreams and stages will be completed.

And if she can't, then you have the answer right there. All imo and dyor

Especially in this market environment for juniors!