Member Info for lebugue-addick

18.03 speedy - quite agree. It will be good to start talking about fundamentals again instead of listening to the constant background noise of some people who come on here and haven't done any research.

NQM - I asked you to provide supporting info for your comment at 8.06am today when you said: "But, at a market cap of £400m I still think GGP are overvalued at present". Now this afternoon you have bought shares. Not sure about the sudden turnaround but welcome anyway.

ATB l-a

Leeson very carefully I shall say this only wonce........#LSExit

Empty vessels from Canvey Island need not apply

The Federal Reserve releases the results of its 2022 bank stress tests later - all eyes on market reaction later

Hi NoQuestionMarks, just picking up on your statement: "But, at a market cap of £400m I still think GGP are overvalued at present".

Would you be able to share your calculations and economic assumptions behind this statement please?

Cheers l-a

Everyonesawinner - Agreed. This is just a necessary rebalancing - rather than selling after considering the fundamentals of the company. Nothing negative is implied.

Redirons. Agreed. All they have is personal attacks. Where is their analysis - nowhere to be seen as usual. They see but can't read, they hear but can't listen.

gg19 - here's what I had to say about about Shaun Day yesterday, in particular engaging with PIs. Now you can see why I said you posted utter rubbish, but you like to name call - classy:

"He (the poster) conveniently forgets that Shaun Day:

* orchestrated the MRE upgrade to 6.5 million ounces of gold equivalent which itself is ultra cautious by his own admission;
* has put in place a strong management team capable of holding its own in discussions with Newcrest and others;
* arranged for the JV team to meet 5 times a month, adding to GGP's credibility as an increasingly knowledgeable company
* has not let Newcrest get their way on buying the 5% at the first opportunity - clearly negotiating hard on behalf of shareholders to maximise the $ from what appears to be a less than favourable agreement
* engages strongly with shareholders and the media to sell the GGP story
* has a track record of creating shareholder value everywhere he's been
* has attracted more institutional shareholder to the register
* notes "bank financing underway with objective to be fully funded up until free cashflow"
etc"

Laughable stuff here today - it's as if no one on here today has done any research; read no RNS's, nor listened to any interviews, nor heard what Sandeep has had to say; nor looked at any macroeconomic stuff; nor wondered if the Ukraine conflict might have affected sentiment..........

gg19 - you clearly have not listened to any of Shaun's recent interviews. I suggest you pay more attention in class before spouting such utter rubbish

Spoonkey - you need to re-read your original post to see why people jumped down your throat on your 5% valuation

spoon key - It is clear from reading your posts your motivation is to rubbish the company, which is another reason why people do not want to discuss fundamentals with you.

spoon key - the valuation of the 5% has no bearing on the remaining 25% from an SP perspective and it would be de-ramping to suggest otherwise, so I guess we can knock that on the head. In terms of the valuation we do not know what the JV agreement says so we can't speculate otherwise. You can do all the number crunching in the world but what you need to know is what parameters the two companies are working to. Without that all your calculations are flawed no matter what you try to say.

There are just too many parameters to come to any reasonable judgement including, but not limited to, the following:

1. POG used by NCM
2. POG used by Greatland
3. POG at today's value which has moved on since PFS in October 2021
4. AISC life of mine used by NCM
5. AISC life of mine used by GGP
6. AISC currently being negotiated
7. Copper price used by NCM
8. Copper price used by GGP
9. Today's copper price
10. Total operating cost life of mine used by NCM
11. Total operating cost used by GGP
12. Current negotiating total operating cost
13. Capital project assumption NCM
14. Capital project assumptions GGP
15. Current capital costs being negotiated
16. Exchange rate used by NCM
17. Exchange rate used by GGP
18. Current exchange rate being negotiated
19. Discount factor to be applied
20. Discussions on ore to be milled - 2mtpa, 3 mtpa or some other figure
21. life of mine discussions - still 9 years or some other figure? Potential effect on NPV
22. Average gold grade NCM
23. Average gold grade GGP
24. Current average grades being negotiated
25. Ditto for copper
26. Gold produced over life of mine - as per NCM
27. Gold produced over life of mine - as per GGP
28. Extent to which PFS calculations are used
29. Extent to which GGP's updated MRE is to be used
30. Any other MRE being prepared for NCM's 30 June accounts - ready for August release.
31. What an arbitrator might conclude if used.
etc etc etc

Agreed Bamps - it's their MOTIVATIONS that's important. Did you notice the subtle, deliberate miscalculations on the low side to try and put investors off - all hidden behind a long-winded narrative?

Ben - I feel your pain. Shaun has his sights on another listing elsewhere as part of his 5 year growth plan (below). It won't happen immediately but I suspect once the cash starts coming in he will move swiftly as it must be as frustrating for him as it is for us.

1. Invest in human capital to deliver organisational capacity across the business and its Board with a view to maximising the potential for success and delivery of the strategy
2. Strengthen financial balance sheet and diversify funding sources
3. Explore listing options to optimise the access to equity investors

Slide 6 - Strategy on a page. GGP's 5 year growth plan https://greatlandgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/GGP-Investor-Presentation-May-22-vF.pdf

Hi Bamps - good to see your post. I would also add that Shaun keeps on saying (my paraphrase): "Look at the conversion rate from Resources to Reserve - a massive 86%* for gold and 80% for copper".

This often gets missed but it should give investors a lot of confidence that the resources found have an excellent chance of conversion to Reserves, in turn leading to a better valuation for each ounce.

See slide 9 from the recent May presentation: https://greatlandgold.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/GGP-Investor-Presentation-May-22-vF.pdf

*86% conversion rate based on SE Crescent Indicated Resource

Good observation Bamps. And it needs to be done at speed to keep Telfer going. Newcrest need us as much as we need them. A good fit so far.

Hllnvestor - make up your mind. This what you said on Monday:

"Gold is dropping and pound is being battered. A double whammy for net asset value of GGP traded in £.
Discounted future cash flow worsens as interest rate rises on capital.
Time to buckle up and brace for serious volatility.
Investors need the mental fortitude to deal with sub 10p share price.
Still confident in the long run things will be good.
Need to conclude 5% and confirm full capital raise without further share dilution quickly".

***************************************
In response to your message to this and at 08.41 today I make the following observations:

1. POG is holding up very well - currently $1,852 - making Havieron even more profitable than those assumptions in October's PFS which were $1,500 as per Newcrest PFS, Greatland used $1,750 - so a 20% increase in project profitability based on movement in the price of gold;
2. You say: "A double whammy for net asset value of GGP traded in £". Have another look at the October valuation assumptions - Newcrest valued the project in Australian dollars and then converted to US$ using an exchange rate of AUD:USD = 0.75. Greatland used a rate of 0.72 and today the rate is less than 0.70 making the project profit even more favourable.
3. You say: "Inflation will significantly increasing the cost of development. Which will likely result in more capital requirements". I agree in part. But bear in mind GGP's share of the ongoing capital requirements soon will only be 25% not 30%. Also the JV is looking at the possibility of milling 3 millions tons per annum instead of 2 million thus boosting the free cash flow which will mitigate increased inflation costs.
4. "Discounted future cash flow worsens as interest rate rises on capital". Don't forget the overall profitability of Havieron rises even more significantly with POG increases as SD demonstrated with his October economic assumptions. Newcrest's NPV of Havieron based on a 9 year mine life was $228m whereas GGP's was $508m. And the profitability of the project has grown since then. And of course it will grow again with every update MRE and the FS despite rising costs.

The discount factor applied to the project by both Newcrest and Greatland in October was 4.5%. So for the moment that looks about right given they are looking 9 years ahead for the starter mine.

Like you say there are some reasons to be cautious but there are also reasons to be optimistic - even Newcrest, when looking at the fraction of a fraction 14mt starter mine reckoned free cash flow would be $398m (GGP $764m). And Havieron continues to grow with every drill update.

strudel - you knew my late mother in law then?!