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Morning all,
The company deserve huge credit for the steps taken thus far. The primary (and justifiable) criticism of what they hold at the moment is that the data set is small. So they have raised the cash and infrastructure to conduct a 900 patient, 20 Country phase III trial.
The science is good, the phase II results much better than expected, it has a great safety profile, the company have taken steps to ensure product supply of 100,000/month as things stand (would expect this to increase once approvals start arriving - facilitated by the previous doubters).
Once this ball gets rolling it won’t stop.
ATB,
Leaf
What a misleading post. They even went to pains to explain and highlight that directors were not ‘cashing in’ as you have put it.
It may go to 175, it may not.
To any casual browsers of this forum, check out Dacorum’s posting history and draw your own conclusions on the value of his posts.
Best,
Leaf
P.S whilst having a browse for what could be causing the SP shape of the last few days I came across this info in an old chat from ADFVN:
...”EG An MM will get 500k from a fund, the trade is not reported. That MM then usually is the only one on the offer. So you have good supply in the market but its not visible other than an MM that won't budge. PIs buy they don't budge. PIs sell and the MMs on the bid pick up shares and go onto the offer. The share price falls as the bid is lower. Sometimes as in the past the new MMs will step over the MM with the 500k. Then as has also happened that MM steps over them to dominate the offer to get rid of the stock. So you then see a share price drop which doesn't match the visible market action. When the MM with the 500k sells the lot it then gets reported. If the MM hasn't managed to reload from the supply then the share price tends to bounce. PIs see the shortage and bounce and start to buy amplifying the bounce. Trades above the market size can be delayed. In the case above it's usually reported once the whole amount has gone. MMS take market size too far at times and one can't help think they are up to no good. EG we have had trades of 20k delayed. Now if that was a buy in a rising share price when it pings up, usually and hour later, the auto system makes it look like a sell as if the price is below mid price it looks like a sell. We have had many days here where buys are put through a tiny fraction below the mid price and then they look like sells. The system doesn't recognise if it's a buy or sell, it just works off the mid price at the time the transaction goes through on the screen, not the time it was executed.’’
The 5 day chart was starting to look like a steady heartbeat... now it is about to pick up pace?
I topped up some more on the dip that is happening now. I must say I am baffled by recent SP (non)movement. Enjoying reading this mornings theories.
Best,
Leaf
The US presidential election adds an interesting layer to the future of this treatment - some well-respected posters on here believe this is headed Westwards where the really big dollars are.
If it were me as a potential US Pharma-partner, I’d get the election out of the way and see how things stand before parting with mega-money for a treatment such as SNG’s. Not because of doubts over its efficacy, no. But rather to avoid it becoming politicised. For me, Synairgen’s value to a US pharmaco increases once a peaceful election is concluded either way. That doesn’t rule out an earlier move - just makes it unlikely in my opinion.
ATB,
Leaf
@glen - 14:30. Thanks for the follow-up. I have read the RNS a few times to guide my own side-research, but don’t see the specific risk register section you are referencing. It’s quite possible I have simply not seen it through the fog of the endless financial t&c style paragraphs contained in the RNS.
Hi Joey,
I’d add that we can expect some update on the at-home trial soon (finishing of recruitment/dosage/results - who knows, not much info surrounding this is out there).
And I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a new face or two announced via RNS in the coming weeks. I’d be very happy to see the board recruit some experience in the role of consultants for example. (I don’t believe this requires an RNS but would demonstrate an intent of getting full value for what they hold).
ATB,
Leaf
Cheers pjmh, I will do.
If anyone wants to see the nebulisers that Synairgen have chosen (the Solo and the Ultra, per the RNS) they are there on the Aerogen website.
Good night all from a curfew city in France.
Leaf
Whilst researching some points that cropped up in the recent RNS, I came across the following.
Omnispirant have been awarded not-insignificant funding to develop and achieve phase one trials for an ARDS treatment. In turn they are also looking at COPD.
Two points of interest here - they have a partnership with Aerogen (the people announced as our Nebulizer partners), and the fact they received over 11 million in funding from the DTIF.
Summary: Omnispirant are miles behind the curve but did manage to secure good funding - I’m not sure what to make of that as presumably the fund management research what else is out there.
https://www.aerogen.com/irish-consortium-to-develop-novel-treatment-for-ards-caused-by-covid19/
I hope our treatment’s success means that the problem is already solved by the time they get anywhere near stage III!
Best,
Leaf
I’d love it if we see a RNS in the next couple of weeks announcing a new name or two on team Synairgen. Consultant/Advisory roles for example.
I have full confidence in RM and team. With 80 million freshly raised, getting some more opinions and insights on board to help with the next big steps would be money well spent in my book.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see it happen - I don’t think they have to RNS the above, but believe it would be well-received and strengthen the hand still further.
Good afternoon all!
My question yesterday was not a ramp/deramp. I’m genuinely interested to see if anyone can raise a serious weakness in Synairgen’s prospects as I believe the regular readers of the board know the counterpoints to all the common deramps that get thrown our way.
For what it is worth I don’t think ‘SNG001’ is a media-friendly name, and ‘Project Oxygen’ from the recent PDF seems a misnomer.
Forward planning for increased production aside - which was a great move, do we think the company has large enough headcount to deal with the myriad issues that may come their way? Or would we like to see the hiring-in of some more big names in the industry?
ATB,
Leaf
This will be, IMO, the lead option in the fight against covid, and based on some quick calculations on what the UK gov have committed to on Remdes (500,000 orders at 2,340 usd per treatment) the potential for an effective drug (SNG001) in a GLOBAL market place is enormous.
Point taken about saving the exploratory discussions for the weekend (cheers Glen). And thanks to others for their input.
Best,
Leaf
Hi all,
Not a deramp (see all my previous posts) - I’d like to get a discussion going on the potential banana skins. Even if they seem far-fetched.
I am convinced of the case for SNG001 - I want to see the best counter-arguments that there are. I appreciate a share forum might be biased, though I hope others might see the benefit in this exercise?
Patent infringement? Cheaper aerosol delivery vs expensive nebuliser? Bad results from at-home trial? Early push for vaccine denting trust in all covid medicines?
Best,
Leaf
With the recent steps forward, it strikes me that with each passing day and with potential problems being methodically removed, the buy-out price of the company simply continues to grow.
Best-in-world phase II data (not yet peer reviewed).
Strong bank balance.
Drug availability right now through the MAP Clinigen partnership - may generate stories of recovery ahead of the phase III.
Strong patent-protection and seemingly ideal delivery method.
And then a recently announced phase III across 20 countries.
Synairgen aren’t bluffing! Sitting on gold.
ATB,
Leaf
Hi Michaelhighbar,
Interesting post, and I find I agree with the majority of it.
I would point out that the Synairgen fundraising element is not as presented and the two situations are not comparable. (Have a read of the board and last nights RNS) the recent SP was nothing to do with confidence about fundraising.
I hold a small amount here and look forward to seeing where the company goes.
Best,
Leaf
Good afternoon all,
I had another listen to a previous Holgate interview from earlier in the year. Listen to him enthuse about the potential for health improvement if the drug is given early (from the 5:56 mark for a short while).
Given we are still due the results of the at-home trial, this could be a real further boost and head-turner for the powers that be, as well as the Everyman. The trial has been slow, but I feel the SP has overlooked the potential upside of this additional dataset.
https://hstalks.com/t/4301/inf-therapy-for-covid-19-the-new-sng001-drug/
Best,
Leaf
Good morning all!
To push the elevator analogy: There’s a bit of background noise as the construction company adds another 10 storeys to the top of the building.
The company position just keeps getting stronger. It’s like a game of poker and the drug (which works) is in RM’s hand.
Excited to hold,
Leaf