Member Info for LayLadyLay

You need to be careful offerman as you have already seen how easy it is to lose significant sums. It's up to you how you invest but it's easy to get swept along with the pseudo euphoria that many display on here. CERP is portrayed as a dead cert by those who are trying to encourage others to join the 'party'. They only want to see the sp rise so they can sell. They want your money offerman. That's how these people work. You think they are your friends but there are sharks circling and they smell the scent of a quick killing at your expense and the expense of others. Investing and trading is simply a transfer of wealth from those who lose to those who win. It's every man and woman for him/herself. It's not a level playing field. I know that LK is being touted as the second coming. He is a professional who carries some gravitas in the way he appears and the way he talks. He has a good reputation because of his success at Taqa Britani but he had the backing of a sovereign wealth fund which enabled him to get ahead of the game. He was to some extent in the right place at the right time. Does that make him a genius or was he simply lucky? Will CERP be the next success on his CV or will he come up short like his compatriot Louis van Gaal did at Manchester United. Having a great CV doen't guarantee anything. Past performance doesn't guarantee anything. This is a different company to Taqa Britani and assistant driller Koot, as he was at Shell, may not be able to deliver another spectacular success story. Whatever happens, though, he will walk away wealthy. You and other may not be so lucky. 'Brought up in Zeist in the Central Netherlands, Koot has a passion for oceans and water, perhaps linked to the fact his house was 12 metres below sea level. He studied oceanography in Delftbut switched to mining and petroleum engineering for a more lucrative career. His first job was with Shell where he progressed from roughneck and roustabout to assistant driller. ' 'Koot had that financial muscle. As the world slid into recession taqa, backed by a sovereign wealth fund, seemed almost unaffected. "We were still investing as everyone was tightening their belts which gave us an excellent opportunity to recruit the best people in the industry and invest counter cycle," explains Koot. "Because we have strong financial backing there was no immediate requirement to cut back on our capital programme. Abu Dhabi is a nation which understands the oil business. They know oil is cyclical and will have highs and lows and any clever person will invest in a period of low oil price. This counter cyclic investment cycle has been very successful.' https://www.insider.co.uk/special-reports/oil-gas-profile-leo-koot-9876436 I hope you recoup your losses offerman but tread carefully and don't do anything without having done solid research. Don't trust the motives of anyone on a message board, especially those who want to filter posters and suppress debat

Leo Koot says that CERP doesn't need to raise cash and yet he's always presenting to potential investors and trying to sell his vision. I think his 'not needing to raise cash' statement is possibly meant in the context of his minimalist plans for the rest of 2018. Drilling the SWP would certinly need either a partner (dilution, dilution, dilution) or a cash infusion (dilution, dilution, dilution). LK gave estimates of between US$2m and US$4m per drill at the UK Investor Show. So, on the one hand he doesn't need the money for workovers and well whispering but on the other hand he will need a lot of money that he doesn't currently have available IMHO in order to commence a drilling campaign in the SWP. Hence his need to drum up interest in the project and sell his ideas. Interesting times ahead. Boom or bust? Ladies and gentlemen, place your bets.

The debate about communication has been tossed around on here and there is no concensus of opinion. LK is a second coming for many of you and there is a strong belief system amongst you. While it's good for you to believe in the future of the company you should beware of taking your eye off the ball or ignoring the obvious. In the good old LGO days many of you had your collective head in the sand and ignored the warning signs. It beggars belief that some of you watched the SP fall from 6.9p old money, worth 138p post consolidation, to a measly 0.2p or 4p in today's money. But it happened and the hardest thing for many retail investors is knowing when to take a loss to avoid a bigger loss. Many learn the hard way and some of you never learn at all. Traders tend to be the ones who can navigate the swings in fortune and make top dollar while the long and strong briggade often find themselves puzzling over the rises and dips that occurs in any stock and blame market makers, shorters and posters on bulletin boards for perceived manipulation which only exists in most cases in their imagination. Rather than bemoaning that CERP is an AIM stock and not main market, why not invest in a main market stock? The main reason is because people see AIM as a quick route to riches and penny stocks are affordable. It looks impressive to have millions of shares in your portfolio and the dream is for those pennies to become pounds. Occasionally this happens but mostly those dreams don't materialize. That's the way of AIM. LK is between a rock and a hard place at the moment because he has maybe said too much in his last interview. His mantra of under promise and over deliver maybe sounds a bit hollow to some of you. Has the BOLT deal completed yet? Yes it has been renegotiated but we have seen it renegotiated several times in the past but never completed. Is that deal now completed or still a work in progress? What of the Icacos deal that was promised in Q1? I noticed that Touchstone didn't update their investors on this potential transaction. I'm not sure it's good form for LK to get in the habit of pre-announcing things which may or may not happen. That borders on ramping. Perhaps he is disappointed with the SP languishing around the 5p mark and occasionally drifting lower; this despite apparent support from Schroders? Hopefully there will be some accretive news in the not too distant future to keep the natives from becoming restless. All the best and have a good weekend.

He didn't quantify lifting costs. He only mentioned SPT and Royalties. 'Royalties and SPT in Q1 2018 charged at equivalent of US$24.78 per barrel on Goudron field'.

Just to put current production and targets into perspective ... Goudron 2014 production rose to 2,089 bopd in December 2014, with Q4 2014 production averaging 1,031 bopd (Q1 2015: 1,550 bopd) It all looked so good but the cost of drilling new wells and maintenance workovers/well optimisations in order to maintain production proved to be unsustainable. CERP has yet to embark on any drilling and so far has concentrated on low cost workovers etc. It will be interesting to see what upper limit of production can be achieved with that approach even allowing for water flood. WTI is favourable at present so the company needs to make hay while the sun shines before oil prices decline. June sees the wet season kick off in Trinidad which will hamper efforts in the field so you need to find a reasonable balance between your hopes and expectations to avoid disappointment. The real test for CERP will be when they embark on drilling. High cost, high risk, potentially high rewards but only if successful. Keep it real!

It's just maths Rugby lol

Also bear in mind that the 'minimum payment' will become due at some point if this has not been reached via production payments. It's easy to speculate that CERP will not be left with a large sum to pay out in the future but that depends on how successful the development of Icacos is.

' As workovers were no doubt previously costed/scheduled there is no increase in outgoings ...' LTL would become operator and have to fund all workovers/well optimisations etc. so I don't think you can say there's no increase in costs. Notably the RNS specifically says ... 'All operational activities on Icacos will be funded from existing cash resources' There's no mention of this already being in the 2018 budget. Touchstone, via Primera, lose their interest but gain a free ride.

There's a definite spaghetti western theme to CERP these days. First we had the good, the bad and the ugly and now it's for a few barrels more. LK will be hoping for a fistful of dollars but you have to speculate to accumulate and LK needs to attract more investment before he can attempt to find the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Otherwise it's just more of that jam tomorrow that LGO investors were promised on countless occasions. VSA are clearly in the jam tomorrow kitchen, trying to drum up investment interest. Good luck with that. I would like to see confirmation of this deal completing and the same goes for the BOLT deal. The BOLT deal is a prime example of an agreement that has been renegotiated time after time but never completed. Hopefully this time it will complete and I look forward to confirmation in due course.

Maybe you're right. Nas Ne Dogonyat for you non Russian speaking means Not Gonna Get Us Yulia Volkova rocks! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bUKWENpZCs8

This was clearly not yet completed when the renegotiation was announced. Will CERP be announcing when all the paperwork and legal issues have been completed? Is this the small deal that was alluded to? Is this done yet? 'Payment of up to US$450,000 to BOLT, upon the transfer of the Existing Lease to Columbus (including the rights to the Bonasse field) and the transfer of associated agreements for oil & gas operations on the SWP'

Cedros is largely forested and I expect there to be some environmental concerns if CERP intends to cut down trees to clear the way for drilling and the installation of infrastructure. To what extent this may or may not be a factor is yet to be seen but environmental issues may play a big part in what CERP can and can't do on its acreage. 'Even though the country accounts for less than one per cent of greenhouse gas emissions, as a small island developing state, TT is at risk from the adverse effects of climate change, including rising ocean temperatures, changes in precipitation, coastal erosion - already evident in places like Cedros and Mayaro - and as hurricanes Irma and Maria proved last year, the increased likelihood of being affected by more intense tropical storms.' http://newsday.co.tt/2018/04/05/tts-green-road/

HH - it seems unlikely that royalty to BOLT will ever be triggered. Maybe it's been inserted mainly for shareholder consumption. But you never know, there may be a potential gusher hiding down there; the proverbial 1000lb gorilla that Leni used to tweet about ;)

Just a bit of history for those who are not familiar with how this all started, way back in 2013. LGO announced on October 30 that the company successfully raised �2.3 million before expenses, by way of the placement of 48,418,167 new ordinary shares on the London Stock Exchange at a placing price of 4.75 pence per share 'to assist with accelerating LGO�s oil exploration efforts on its various Cedros licenses in Trinidad including the recently announced airborne gravity survey.' In a letter of intent announced on June 20, 2013, 'LGO and Bolt agreed to work together to cross-assign their various interests to explore the deep horizons below 7,000 feet.' They also agreed to 'share data, create an area of mutual interest and for LGO to employ Dr Krishna Persad as a consultant through South Western Oil Ltd, agreements for which were subsequently entered into by the parties. In 2014, a surface geochemistry sampling survey was conducted jointly by the parties.' The deep rights agreement has not yet been concluded. However, the parties are now in agreement that the required licences can be obtained and have therefore agreed that Bolt will sell the deep rights to LGO, and exclusivity has been extended to September 30, 2015. The remaining US$2.1 million LGO has for Bolt 'will be payable in some combination of cash and shares at LGO�s discretion' subject to the effective transfer of the deep rights and the receipt of an appropriate exploration and production licence by September 30, 2015. 'Should these not be achieved by this date, then the initial consideration (the US$400,000) shall be repayable to LGO, guaranteed by Dr Krishna Persad,' LGO said. If all goes according to plan, on completion, LGO will grant Bolt a gross overriding royalty of 5 per cent on the gross production of petroleum won and saved pursuant to the deep rights. LGO is undertaking to drill an exploration well into the horizons of the deep rights within 72 months of completion. http://www.guardian.co.tt/business/2014-12-01/lgo-acquire-new-cedros-acreage

Seller=BOLT Read the renegotiation RNS http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=CERP&ArticleCode=x8h1u3gq&ArticleHeadline=Renegotiation_of_BOLT_Transaction

Potentially as much as US$1.25m per annum. If only CERP had 100% interest in BOLT (as per the original transaction) they would be paying royalty to themselves ... or not at all. Then there's the 25% shareholding in BOLT that CERP is relinquishing and previously paid US$250,000 to acquire. And the US$450,000 payment to BOLT upon transfer of the lease. And the US$500,000 payment to BOLT upon the development of any field (other than the Bonasse Field) situated within the Existing Lease. And the aforementioned Royalty payments to BOLT. At least CERP has avoided taking on the US$1.1m loan to BOLT and the US$50,000 payment to BOLT to acquire the remaining 75% shareholding. It's a smashing deal ... for BOLT IMHO

in4cedros - my criticism was that you deliberately chose to give an example where SPT would not be a factor. I don't think you understand incremental barrels so let's not bother going there. Perhaps it would be helpful to potential investors if you made it clear that you are simply talking about revenue which doesn't include any operating costs or capex Cash flow from operations in Q1 2018: US$0.70 million operating netback achieved after payment of operating costs, workovers and well interventions, royalties and SPT. Total capex of US$0.86 million incurred during quarter.

Accretive is simply a buzzword, along with bang for buck, fully funded, purple tie etc A transaction may be considered accretive but over time prove to be a bad investment. The MC of a company is a variable and will fluctuate depending on many factors. Market sentiment is not concerned with sound bites. The market is only interested in results. I see no reason for me to promulgate such terms and it is up to the company to deliver results that will increase shareholder value.

Average realised sales price from Goudron operations in Q1 2018: US$58.41 per barrel (peaking at US$60.68 per barrel in January). Special Petroleum Tax ('SPT) now payable in Trinidad with realised sales oil price consistently above US$50 per barrel. Royalties and SPT in Q1 2018 charged at equivalent of US$24.78 per barrel on Goudron field. It will be interesting to see whether LK can solve the dreaded Goudron decline. By his own admission 'The growth of the production base in Goudron is not without its challenges'. He now knows what those challenges are but will he be any more successful than his predecessor? We shall see how the story unfolds in the coming months. Workovers and well optimisations that are needed to be carried out in an attempt to maintain production at any given level is like the proverbial cat chasing its tail. Whilst the plan is for Goudron to fund drilling of SWP I'm far from convinced that sufficient revenue can be achieved and expect at some point either a fund raise will be necessary or else bring a partner into the equation which will dilute any future gains should drilling be successful. CERP has already renegotiated the BOLT deal on what it calls better terms but that is a matter of opinion. It seems to have derisked by not completing the takeover of BOLT along with the debt but in the long run will pay far more. If derisking was deemed necessary then it calls into question how confident the management is of finding any significant deposits in the SWP. There is talk of M&A activity and perhaps adding to the already considerable acreage but the time will come when CERP will have to stop talking futures and start to do some exploration. The company has not drilled a well in almost 3 years. Drilling activity will be the litmus test. CERP is fond of using the term 'fully funded' and I seem to recall that Neil also used the same term. I suspect that the budget includes estimates of expected revenue so as long as that revenue is achieved then maybe the company will not rquire additional funding for ongoing operations. However, it seems highly likely to need a significant level of cash before initiating any drilling activity so don't rule out an unexpected placing before the end of the year. 'No new fund-raises are planned in 2018 by the Company at this time, although the Company continues to examine new business opportunities and funding possibilities for those opportunities with various external parties.'

in4cedros - interesting that you often rely on things Neil has said in the past. I see you use WTI of $50 to illustrate your point about netbacks but fail to mention SPT that kicks in above that level. As a matter of fact WTI can only be used as a guide because it's Petrotrin who determine the rate to be used in any given month, probably an average over the month. The moral of the story is don't forget the impact of SPT as it is significant and rampers like to sweep it under the carpet and concentrate only on WTI.