Member Info for Lasvelas

No need to sugar coat it, this is a profit warning in a way, although it is trying talking some positives. I sold some couple of days ago and then the rest this morning, all still at a good profit. Happy to be out for now without any damage.

totally agree. it's ok to collect billions of pounds in duty charges from cigarettes by the government so they can build roads and bridges but it is not ok to get the company grow further.

It is a bit of a dead lock, agreed. Hope PMI realizes that by increasing their offer to 170.5 unlocks the 11 percent and gets the deal over the line.

Excactly. This business is not bust that requires equity injections. This business just need refocus and stronger management, therefore PMI is much better fit.
I did see a note on the board mentioning that PMI needs 90 percent for the offer to go unconditional, but Carlyle is holding their stand with their 11 percent backers. So either Carlyle's backers pull a plug on them or make them withdraw their bid or PMI raises their offer to 170.5 Still a little game to be played here.

Game over. Carlyle's last bid was final. PMI wins. Drama over.

Scheme of arrangement is off. Switch to a take over offer. I suspect they are trying to buy our shares at 165p. If i read well if more than 75 percent holders sign up, it will go ahead.

Not sure if this means the are our of the auction completely or its just a change if Carlyle does not come up with a higher offer. My guess is the later.

I know, I realized that. Just a wild guess. Maybe a strategic partner buying a stake in TPG? Let's see what tomorrow brings.

New CEO buying shares?

I think Carlyle will have one more go. I doubt they would want to go into auction.

Next 24 hours will be quite interesting. Carlyle has to do something, at least match PMI's bid or they could be deemed out. PMI however could increase their bid in last minute of the day and Carlyle could be out. In a tie, auction would be in the best interest of shareholders as it would give others to take a serious look, just in case, and both PMI and Carlyle have to bid their maximum they would be willing to pay. What do you think?

Brilliant news!

Aug 9 (Reuters) – Britain's takeover regulator said on Monday it would launch an auction process for Vectura if its suitors Carlyle Group and Philip Morris don't make final bids for the London-listed drugmaker by Tuesday.

Vectura separately said it was withdrawing its intention to recommend Carlyle's increased offer of 155 pence per share and that it had no intention at this stage to recommend Philip Morris' 165 pence proposal from Sunday.

Quite possible. Carlyle's strategy is to get enough institutions on their side to fight PMI. They need a third to be able to stop a deal going through. They wont give up now. I am sure they are talking to others. Thinking more and more this is not over yet.

Carlyle managed to lock in three institutions into their deal (Axa; TIG Advisors; Berry Street) They only have total of just under 12% of votes (not enough to get the deal approved by shareholders). They are in bed with Carlyle unless a counter bid comes in higher than 10% on top of 155p (170.5p). PMI only offered 165 at this time! If I read this the doc correctly, unless Carlyle bids higher than 165p or unless they withdraw their offer of 155p, these guys will not vote for PMI's deal. PMI clearly thinks they can get enough votes in to get it done if nothing else changes and if Carlyle does not increase their bid (I think that is fair assumption). If PMI's bid gets approved, the three institutional clients, would still get the 165p anyway, as they would be forced, by the majority shareholder vote, into the deal even if they voted against.

I think PMI has thought about all this in advance and knew if they would get outbid how to deal with it. Overpaying is never good, and PMI's shareholders would probably agree with this approach.

Bad play from Carlyle by trying to be stingy. I think they could come back but hey need to bid much higher if they are serious.

If this article is true - we have a counter bid from PMI first thing in the morning. Fantastic response!

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/marlboro-maker-goes-hostile-battle-103100855.html

If PMI came in with another counter bid on Monday it would clearly shows its firm commitment that they should not be messed about with. Swift action would make a very strong impact.

The management of the company acted fast and changed its business model during Covid from FX travel transaction business to payment business for retails and B2B customers. They have their own Bank of England account and IBAN and are able to deliver real time payments at a cost that works. They are on track to deliver higher revenues than in 2019. We need to see continues growth of customers, margins that deliver sustainable profit and continues innovation so they appeal to clients. If this is delivered the share price should continue to grow towards 80/90 level.

This is a standard language you will find in many types of offers. Somehow i doubt a third bidder emerges here but counter bid by Philip Morris is certainly on the way. If PM wanted to get this done and dusted they would come up with a strong increased offer. Carlyle is playing a game, increasing only by the minimum, not willing to overpay a penny.

I would disagree. Carlyle's second offer as they were outbid on the first one. So this is a bidding situation. Philip Morris is building a long term strategy on Vectura's capabilities, they will not walk away from this without having another go. If Carlyle wanted put this to sleep they would have not just bid 5p more over Philip Morris. Whoever wants this business will have to pay 15/20p a share more.