Moneyweek today7 Jul 2021 12:21
Moneyweek today....our friend Dominic Frisby...
The commodities bull market that began in spring 2020 may be over – or just consolidating, depending on your point of view.
But there is one metal for which the only way is up, as the song goes. And that is tin.
Energy, metals and soft commodities could all go into bear markets and lose 30% or even 50%. The US dollar index could go back above 100. Interest rates could rise. I still think tin goes higher. The shortage of supply is that pronounced.
One is Afritin (LSE: ATM), which is in the early stages of production / late stages of development, depending on if you’re a glass-full or glass-empty kind of person, with its Uis project in Namibia. I own this one as well.
Often you get more leverage in bull markets by buying high-cost producers. Let’s say a company mines a metal for £70/lb and sells the metal for £100/lb. It makes £30/lb. The price of the underlying metal goes up to £110/lb, and so the profits of the company increase by a third.
Now let’s say a company mines the metal at £90/lb. If the metal price goes to £110/lb its profits double. High-cost producers can be very rewarding in bull markets. In bear markets, however, you can get destroyed.
Afritin’s flagship Uis project is a little too dependent on the lithium and tantalum by-product to be economically viable for its tin alone at $25,000 or $30,000 a tonne. But if tin goes to $40,000 or $50,000, then suddenly Afritin becomes a multi-bagger winner.