RE: What Price Full Gas?27 Dec 2021 11:15
Thanks for your insight Sulgi. I think we are completely aligned. Here a few additional thoughts:
1) Chariot have signed a MoU with a "leading international energy group" and that "surplus could be sold to Europe". This would suggest that the MoU is for gas to be sold to the domestic market. My bet is that this energy group is the operator of the Tahaddart gas fired power plant in northern Morocco, consisting of the Moroccan ONEE together with German Siemens and Spanish Endesa. This power plant requires appr. 50mmscfd. The P90 output of Anchois is appr. 35mmscfd and the MoU is for 40mmscfd for 20 years. If the P50 comes in, the output of Anchois is estimated at 70mmscfd so a surplus of 30mmscfd could be exported to Spain (or local industry).
2) As for the conflict between Algeria and Morocco, I think eventually they will resolve their issues because the closure of the pipeline is hurting both Morocco and Algeria and it also affects Spain. Bear in mind, Anchois won´t come onstream until late 2024 at the earliest.
3) Despite the recent spike in gas prices, the industry consensus seems to be that the long term gas price forecast, based on supply and demand forecast, is in the order of $7/mcf +/- $3/mcf