RE: long(ish)24 Oct 2018 15:14
Ftse! Bleeeurgh!! :)
China is already in a slowdown Im afraid TP......
Bear market catalyst is not China or Euro but US imo. Always US. China is simply the 'effect' of what US has caused.
The trade/currency wars already having effect on China for months now and also on EEM. Their bear markets began a long time ago....
The point is the global economy has been deteriorating for a while but most failed to realise or be aware of it simply because most look at the US.
As US was supposedly so buoyant, then ppl incorrectly assume bear market has not began....try telling that to the rest of the world....
And furthermore, the real data in US is being ignored that points to the fact that 'in theory' they're in a bear market already...just because the indices dont yet reflect it, doesnt mean we're not. That's the mistake many are making....IMHO:)
And a rise in indices does NOT mean we are *not* in a bear market.....I guess it also depends on one's perspective re timescales......
Also most are not looking at why the indices have been able to sustain the recent highs e.g. buybacks etc. Without these, where wld the indices really be??
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-underwater/inside-sp-500-most-stocks-in-correction-or-bear-market-idUSKCN1MX33D
The meeting b/w China and US is a presumption imo for now...ie how many delays/cancellations have there have been so far?:) In any case, it is almost irrelevant now as the damage to China's economy is done and cannot be undone through any one, or series of, meetings. That is a total myth and common misconception Look at their indices since Jan 2018....
You said it yourself, FTSE is predominantly based on US due to dollar denomination of exp'n/imp'n so what goes on in US has a direct effect on UK companies.... AIMVHO.
GL with FTSE....I think personally we will see lower from today's levels in the ST but that applies to most indices...BWHTHDIK...:)
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