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Oct 19 (Reuters) - Soco International PLC: * Arbuthnot raises Soco International PLC to buy from neutral

did the downgrade on 3rd September because they were cautious about Nganga With the upgrade, following the Vietnam disappointment, it must mean they are now positive about Nganga Some good news must be brewing in the Congo!!

Shares in Soco International (SIA.L) drop 6.8 percent after the British oil explorer abandons the Nganga 1 well in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with Numis downgrading the stock to "reduce" from "hold". "The well failed due to lack of lateral seal. We reduce our 412 pence/share risked net asset value by 14 pence/share to 398 pence/share as a result," Numis analysts say. "We remain cautious on SOCO's Nganga block forward programme."

Oct 15 (Reuters) - Soco International PLC: * Numis raises Soco International PLC to hold from reduce

my math is flawed Thailand production has been sold, so just expecting production from Vietnam in 2011 but operating profits should still be in excess of £100M on 16,500 boepd So its a waiting game, as Xanth says

'During the first six months of 2010, the Group realised an average price of $73.87 per barrel of oil compared to $47.48 per barrel in the first half of 2009. ' 'On a per barrel basis, excluding inventory movements, depreciation, depletion and decommissioning costs (DD&A) and sales related duties and royalties, operating costs were approximately $13.10 per barrel compared to $10.70 per barrel in the first half of 2009. '

panicking back there, but having done the math, it all looks way overdone

take you shares cheaply....any buy ij price under £4 is a bargain two months from now we'll be laughing at these prices

OK time for some maths 2010 1st half - revenues of £66.2m, operating profit £31.4m on average production of @ 5,000 boepd mid 2011 - get an additonal 30% OF 55,000 boepd = 16,500 boepd If operatin profit increase in a linear scale, then going forward, annual operating profit increases to (5000+16500)/5000 * 31.4M = £135M per annum note: these calculations using a low 70s oil price plus no benefit from economies of scale further increase in production in 2012 to 100,000 boepd could see £200M operating profit as a conservative estimate current market cap £1,200M so even without Congo, this looks a great bet

aahh, so you ARE epecting these to rise over thenext few weeks Ive got a good feeling on the Congo

above 350p - hope it closes near 360 and I will not be feeling too bad

so its you shorting this stock making it drop what about when good news on Congo comes out - hope you are caught with your pants down mate : )

you got in at £3.70 after the bad news - like me what do you think these could get to once the shakeout is over?

of bad luck lately - but **** happens right?

painful - but holding on here for better days

so they are not different areas of the same field?

positive here Congo may set this flying again next few week Expect drilling results early November

just gas pressures that were weak - the oil is still there, and could indicate greater reserves 'On the other hand, we are extremely pleased that the revised TGT field interpretation has been validated in an early well giving rise to a potentially greater accumulation of reserves in the field.'

Ed Story, President and Chief Executive of SOCO, commented: "When we embarked on the TGD exploration campaign, we realized that it would be difficult and technically challenging. However, such a vast potential prize warranted the effort. Further analysis of the data gathered from the TGD-2X well will determine our path forward for this area. On the other hand, we are extremely pleased that the revised TGT field interpretation has been validated in an early well giving rise to a potentially greater accumulation of reserves in the field.

dont think about failure anyway, these will have a very significant prodcucing asset soon, which is worth the SP and more