Poor ole Scousers...lol, an extension to the missing Pearly Gates -;
Scouser gets killed and ends up outside the pearly gates.He gives the gate a knock and St Peter emerges who says 'For fecks sake not another scouser, im sick of you lot'.The scouser says 'Go ed lar let me I'm. St Peter asks him if he's done anything charitable recently. The scouser says....'Yeh... I gave a fiver to Help the Aged and a fiver to the Dog Pound last week.'St Peter says ok I'll have to have a word with Jesus about this one.....He comes back 10 minutes later and says.....
'Here's your tenner back now feck off'
Impossible to forecast oil futures when so much going on in the world. Too much volatility and Traders will shun the market as too high risk and are doing so. Trending back to $100 until the next knee jerk worthy news lands. As i keep saying, Casper need to up their netback number as they're losing $30m pa and i want a share of it via the Divi pot. Higher divis = more investor interest and sp appreciation. No 1 on the agenda for me .
Yes, good point re Tenge as annual range is 411-527, the high as a result of war. I believe the annual average was tracking at 420 ish so yep 10%+ for every dollar used to run the business.
Break even ? I have got the numbers quoted but was in the $30 and that's mothball mode but to run the operationally schedule believe $54 gross was communicated. That is very vague as it depends on the variables, how much operational cost, the debt repayments historically , the Tenge devaluation etc.
According to company comms, we have capacity of 4000bopd and i have copied an extract from an e-mail received in April to confirm the numbers inc 142 so 4000 inc SY @ 300 so i think it's safe to say that 3750 is more than achievable.
I don't believe we're getting much more than $25 net for our current export unless KEBCO kicking in or maybe the arbitrage theory is reducing the discount. Still achieving healthy profits if the numbers are $17/25 and i don't think i'm far off, probably a little stingy maybe. Get to 5000bopd as stated and look at ways of achieving near gross crude prices as per company comms and some of the articles have indicated. I believe as a smaller producer with the historic oil trader relationships, probably easier said than done.
'Production volumes
On the production volumes we announced in April we were at 2,300 bopd, which was from the MJF structure. The current capacity at approximately 4,000 bopd also includes the 1,400 bopd from 142 and 300 bopd from the South Yelmes shallow field, which also has a full production licence. Next up for horizontal drilling are 141 and 151'
Oil prices are affected by so many variables it’s making it almost impossible to predict trends. All about supply and demand and will be interesting to see next move? back to pre war levels in the $70s as demand wanes as a result of inflationary pressures or through $100 as supply tightens ? US have been using the SPR to reduce domestic fuel prices. Initially planning to release 1m bpd but they have overshot by 50% and SPR now down to a 35 year inventory low. US can’t continue to drain the SPR so supply will tighten and big question, where does global demand go over the next 6 months with crippling energy prices. People driving less, turning down the heating, less holidays etc. then you add in the Ukraine war and Nordstream being cut off next week and more geopolitical tension around the globe. Makes it impossible to predict but probably in a range of $70- $150.
Casper need to sort out the discount piece and pull away from local oil traders. Clive commented at the AGM that they could do their own selling and save $10 per barrel so why say it if they’re obliged to sell to local oil traders ? Also the mini refinery piece ? Why not do as Tethys has done and source better prices from other buyers ? Usual Carverspeak and I don’t want to hear any more of it. They’re wasting 30% by doing as they’ve always done, time to step it up a few fears.
Tyr,
Hyperbole...lol . You make a fair point and guarantee is a strong word and probably shouldn't have used it regardless of any comms with the company as we know that isn't 100% ! I and others were advised that 141 was close to completion but that was a couple of months ago and i'd have said that was guaranteed too !
I'm probably overstating export net to as i think that's going to be $25-$30 after all costs, that's without any better achieved prices from KEBCO. They have to fix the 'discount' piece as it makes a huge difference to the numbers and their ability to pay healthy divis.
Let's hope that there's no profit sharing outside of the Caspian shell as i see increasing revenues for the company as a major priority. On that point Wolfi posted the following on Tethys a Kaz operator where they were achieving $49 by using other routes. If we're not getting KEBCO, time to change the buyers as there will be better deals out there. Hopefully the Oil Traders aren't part of the family, nudge, nudge !!
https://stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2022/08/22/tethys-petroleum-press-release-corporate-update
Investeg,
Pulling info from the FY accounts, capacity at MJF is 3750 after 142 and 300 bopd at SY. As stated. they'll be generating c$35 for export /$17 for domestic after transportation and taxation but before OPEX/CAPEX. A tidy sum of c $40m, probably less as i'm using 4kbopd @ 65/35% split but you can calculate on 3500 and still healthy. Every 1000 bopd will add $10m+ (after tax/transportation) and maybe they find some more reserves at SY ?
Enough to pay healthy divis but as per extracts from FY accounts below, maybe they look at other projects, even out of Kaz and the cash is giving them options.
Finally KEBCO would generate an additional $30m pa and that is transformational for this company valued at £70m ???
'Shallow structures
All of the oil produced in 2021 was from the MJF structure. The production capacity at the MJF structure has increased to 3,750 bopd, with seven wells producing and a further two wells planned before the year end, including Well 141 which is due to re-enter production shortly following a horizontal drilling workover.
Following the award of the export status at the South Yelemes structure we have been able to re-open wells there, which were shut in for the whole of 2021. The production capacity of these existing wells is approximately 300 bopd. As noted above we plan to drill a new well at a depth of 2,500 meters exploiting horizontal drilling targeting oil in the dolomite.
Our target with these new wells is as soon as possible to increase production capacity to 5,000 bopd solely from our shallow structures.'
'Also, with a new KEBCO designation for Kazakh oil and the EU confirming that Kazakh oil transported through the Russian pipeline systems is not subject to any sanctions we expect to be able to sell oil to our international oil trader partners in Kazakhstan at prices much closer to Brent.'
We estimate the impact of the sanctions related Urals Oil discount to currently be of the order of $30 million per annum based on current production volumes and prevailing international prices. Any reversal of the impact of the Urals Oil discount would flow directly to revenues and a large portion to profits.
'While we will continue to look at early-stage projects, such as in 2008 when we acquired our interest in BNG, our concentration will be on cashflow positive producing assets and for the right projects we would look beyond Kazakhstan.'
Investeg,
Yep, should be generating healthy revenues although the Urals discount is a pain unless they're getting KEBCO, that would be a huge boost.
https://uk.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-urals-spot-futures-historical-data
Urals only discounted by $17 from Crude and i believe Casper have to pay $10 to oil traders so probably receiving $65-$70 gross for current export without KEBCO assistance.
We are currently obliged to use local oil traders but Clive stated that they could look at cutting them out, doing the trading themselves (believe he mentioned Singapore ?) and saving $10 charge in the process. Being obliged ? Also getting better prices from the new mini refineries setting up that could pay more to smaller producers ?
I did take comprehensive notes at AGM. I did ask the question, ‘how can you pay Divis with $1m in the bank?’ but his response was that they’d made provision for which you could assume that they had funds ? I initially didn’t expect to see first Divi til Sep and c 0.15 with a larger one in December.
141 should be here, 151 to follow and 802 drilling ahead. Disappointing no update since AGM and scoring own goals again, doh ! I can guarantee we will get news pre the Interims come end Sept !!
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/China-And-The-West-Both-Want-To-Keep-Kazakh-Oil-Flowing.html
With Gasprom turning down the taps, the pressure on Europe to find energy replacement is building. Demand increasing through the Winter and less supply will probably push Brent back over $100. As we know all about supply and demand and depends on the Inflationary /recessionary influence over next 6 months.
I’ve posted the link below as i see it as a real positive to helping Kaz ensure that they keep flowing oil. GDP numbers were up ytd and China don’t want Putin meddling. We all see it differently but I see this as a hugely positive development.
Been looking back at the 801 well drilled by Sinopec. Takes me back to the exciting times when they had drilled A5 and all the excitement from that and then 801 finding oil and all the expectations of three figure sp !!
Also had the excitement of the BOCO Group (Chinese Industrial Group) looking to invest $20m as a subscription in April 2015, sent the sp back to 20p and then the deal fell over. God, i've lived to ups and downs on this stock, more downs sadly but still the opportunities remain and they need a deep to really change things dramatically.
As you can see by the 801 link, it took 4.5 months to drill to 4659m but that would've included the Winter delays and expectations to TD were 6 months. Casper believe they can do it in 4 months but realistically it will be Q4 earliest before TD BUT we will get the type of news that we've received on all deeps ie gas/oil shows etc.
C'mon Casper, about time you got lucky.
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/caspian_sunrise/news/rns/story/wkm8yvr
A rust bucket charter would help matters along too ! $20m+ added to the coffers would definitely help with the 'meaningful' first payment although i still stick with 0.15p as a starter and 20% yield may attract interest ?
They need to sort the oil discount, a huge bonus if they start to see an additional 30% ! add in another $10 by cutting out Oil Traders and maybe a little more for the pot via mini refineries ? Could all be Carverisms but at 4000bopd capacity, we're in far better shape than ever financially so let's get that Divi declaration out pre Interims.
JD,
Agree re poor comms and lack of a more aggressive shallow operational schedule to max revenues. It must be to do with the no of horizontals they can drill on the field. Easier to manage than wells and definitely less costly.
Re , Sinopec drilled the well to TD without issue and if my memory serves me correctly, their job was to take it to TD and then Caspian got involved to save costs ! there lies the problem and we'll find out whether they continue to be the problem on . Shin wasn't involved with 801 so maybe a better chance although A8 was a failure but that was due to non commerciality as opposed to operational **** ups.
£70m m/cap for a company able to generate 5000 bopd (hopefully soon) at the highest Crude prices for 8 years and will continue to do so for the next 15-20 years. Those maths don't add up and the cash generation will buld cash and give them options to add assets or diversify. I'd rather be solvent and cash generative whereas many AIM cos are hyped to death with little fundamental value.
It's a slow penny but it will drop.
Somm,
We're at 3p as PIs have sold down since Casper announced that only 2 wells planned in H2 and putting a ceiling on prod capacity pf 5000 bopd whereas many investors were hoping to see many more wells and far higher revenue numbers to fund 'meaningful' divis. Also delay in 141 result and no divi declaration added to the sp retrace. The sp was 5.4p in June on anticipation of further good news and the lack of it has seen sp retrace. The price was 5.4p after initial pipeline closures but yes i agree it's a factor BUT less so following Chinese intervention. I suppose we'll see over the next few months whether any more threats come from our Mr P but China are a big influence and looking to strengthen their trade relationship with Kaz, great news for Tokayev.
Somm,
Much that i'd like to see 20p if high yield divi payments start becoming a regular feature, obviously becoming less high yield as share price goes up.
Yep, to get back to 20ps we will need a deep, the divis and continued success on the shallows. 802 allegedly our best chance as a previous Soviet era well in close promiximity to 802 suffered a blow out so oil/gas/water entered the well bore as a result of high pressure. Yet again Casper will be having to drill in over balanced mode using heavier muds to manage the pressure.
They'll head off to A5 after 802 so if we got lucky with 802, that would inject some hype and blue sky as peeps start talking about the A block opportunity. A5 has flowed oil and as i see it, that's our best COS from wells drilled to date and Airshagyl is the asset with the most value attributed to it but we'll need to do another CPR if successful.
If they get 2 deeps flowing, this company is getting sold and that's when KO/WCP get their payday and we'll be hanging onto their shirt tails.
Re pipeline risk, that has hugely diminished following the Chinese comments. Putin will face Chinese resistance if trying to close down CPC again. I believe that risk has gone yet the sp is still on it's arze.
SP disconnected from asset value and at some juncture the market will wake up but an 802 success will be the start of the real transformation.
https://uk.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-urals-spot-futures-historical-data
Weird how Urals price jumped 16% yesterday when Crude was $93 ? Maybe the discount from Brent is starting to reduce ?
Urals price for 21 was $69 and average price for 22 ytd is $83. Removing the sanctions discount would make a huge difference to revenues and hopefully our Clive is doing his upmost to negotiate better pricing from the oil traders.
https://m.uk.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-urals-spot-futures-historical-data
Lost me there ? 100k sold and current bid healthy at 400k @ 3.15p.
Yesterday's buying was probably a FOMO reaction from some that had left the party and now re-joined as a result of three things ie
- Possible higher oil receipts from KEBCO
- China commentary re CPC shut downs
- Operational news in the near term
Undervalued and disconnected from sp but only Casper can change that.
Real market @ 3.2-3.293 up to 150k and then 3.07-3.293. Looks like a 700k rollover @ 3.00/3.05, that's a dangerous game !! A little more interest on the buy side today and the bid is still 7 figures, currently 3.005 for 1.15m .
Is the bottom in ? A 45% decline from a couple of months ago ? Investors seeing that pipeline closure risk is dissipating following China statement ? Possible increases to oil receipts with KEBCO although i believe that this will take time and the big boys will be the winners in this game.
141/Divi/802/Rust bucket - all news that should be forthcoming in H2, hopefully the first 2 pre Interims.