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Gazman, thanks for that informative article. BkkBkk research on valuation is good. It is true if you sell the slots you cant run airlines. But the point is the valuation of the whole TCG airlines should take into account all these valuable slots. Plus what about the Profits the airline makes. I found this interesting " The Financial Times reported that Thomas Cook Airlines was mainly valued in the £1billion-£1.5billion range, though one analyst was cited as valuing the business as high as £3.2billion." The analyst with £3.2bn is Credit Suisse. Citi figure £630mn and Jefferies struggles to pot £ 900 mn. It is ridiculous.ATB
Nothing on this forum today so far. For a start. Now that TCG has received bids for Airlines and Tour Operator. What is left is Hotels and resorts business. Which way they will go forward? With the Airlines or Tour Operator. Has the relaunch of Air Tour anything to do with this??
Buys are more today for the first time in the last few days. ATB
There was a takeover by FTSE 250 company Synthomer. The price they pay is 9.9 times of EBITDA . How much TCG EBITDA and and the value of TCG would be. Easily £4.5bn. Of course you have to adjust for debts.
manchego ; That was the best post I have seen for some time. Honestly I had to turn to the dictionary to get the meaning of some words. No need to say I am still laughing. Simply you brought this forum back to its senses. Instead of discussing whether TCG sp will go up or down we ended up discussing much bigger and controversial subjects. ATB
That was the best post I have seen for some time. Honestly I had to turn to the dictionary to get the meaning of some words. No need to say I am still laughing. Simply you brought this forum back to its senses. Instead of discussing whether TCG sp will go up or down we ended up discussing much bigger and controversial subjects. ATB
Also they dont seem to have expressed their interest by May 7th deadline.and they are not in the 7 remaining.
The news is stale and the current SP has already factored this
There are 7 bidders. CEO has said they have received healthy level of bids. CFO has said he was positively surprised by the bids.
& both said the Airlines are doing reasonably well. Look around the airlines of similar size. Easy Jet, Wizz and Ryan Air. All are doing well. I expect a good result out of this airline and the entire TCG review.
What could be the plausible explanation for Fosun to express its interest in the Tour Operator business before the sale of airlines ???
Yes you have a point,. But without knowing the exact numbers or facts we cant come to conclusions. Most of the discussions are very subjective. So it can work both ways. Also on a profitability basis it is even more difficult gauge. Thanks and ATB.
One positive thing from this latest report is that they cant reduce the target price ( floor price) of Zero any further than what they said several times before. And the market has got used to it.
I thought the capacity reduction is more on the Tour Operator business. TCG Airlines does some 34 % only internally.
Gareth - See the numbers for April to June of both Ryan air and Wizz air both strong growth and looking extremely good.
Again Citigroup does its dirty work.They are relentlessly down grades this stock.May be with some ulterior motive or they are not happy in not getting any work in this restructuring and sale process of the company. Quote from Bloomberg "Thomas Cook Group Plc has little potential breakup value for equity holders and few obvious buyers for some assets, according to Citigroup, which reiterated a zero pence price target for the embattled tourism operator’s stock.
“The valuation of the Scandinavian business could surprise on the upside, however, we see few obvious buyers for other parts of the group,” analysts led by James Ainley wrote in a note, noting that Deutsche Lufthansa AG “appears to have scaled back its interest in the airline sale.”
Citi said that its base case is that there is no equity value in the group, while the current share price implies 200 million pounds ($252 million) of equity value. The analyst notes that this “seems at odds” with the bonds, which are trading at about 40% of face value.
The stock fell 40% on May 17 after Ainley downgraded it to sell and cut its price target to zero pence from 28 pence. The move followed a warning from the company that it faces another tough summer, while a lifeline loan from its lenders depends on the sale of the airline unit. Shares rose last month after Thomas Cook received an offer for its tour-operator business from Chinese investor Fosun International, and are currently trading at 13.5 pence."
Also note their views on the Scandanavian business.
Hi : Happy to hear. But why do you say this and quote this price. ATB
Passenger traffic of Ryan Air & Wizz Air shows substantial increase for April May & June.In respective order they are 10,13,13 & 18,21, 19 % . TCG should follow . GLA
I found this in Ryan air website
"As described below,the Directors from time to time set a “Permitted Maximum” on the number of Ordinary Shares that may be owned by non-EU nationals at such level as they believe will comply with EU law. The Permitted Maximum is currently
set at 49.9%. "
Correct. But what also matters is the way journalists use the language in conveying the news. The heading "Lufthansa deals blow to Thomas Cook over Condor acquisition". It looks as if Lufthansa walked away from bidding. It can also mean Thomas Cook has rejected the offer When they made the offer CEO was all over the place hinting not only Condor but all of the airlines. They should have known at that time what they are bidding for. Now they have chosen the CFO to say the opposite. To me it looks like TCG have some good offers. GLA