If you would like to ask our webinar guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund a question please submit them here.
I still think my comment in January will come good, but I don't see 7300 being hit in August.
Agenda21 Jan '21
The agenda in the US has now moved towards "it doesn't matter how large the national debt is". We can expect more stimulus USD900bn, then USD 1,900bn and then some more. The IMF has now said it was a mistake to curtail Greek spending in the financial crisis, so we could expect more political pressure to do the same in EU and UK. This approach will weaken the dollar but also stimulate the economy and spending. It will create more global cash that needs a home and the FTSE has benefited from this in the last 4months.
I think the FTSE will still move up this year. Corporate earnings are predicted to rise 36% in 2021, resumption of some dividends and hopefully Covid restrictions removed. I see 7,000 being hit in the next couple of months, a summer pull back and then finish above 7,200 a year end. All unless debt becomes an issue again for those who are never going to have to pay it back.
I like using this one but it doesn't total each sector in the way you probably want...
https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/Market/heatmap.aspx
you need to change ticker to sector
Its good to see 7100 hit today, surpassing my expectations for this period. With further growth in Commodity prices expected and the banks to start resuming dividends this major growth cycle still has some momentum. I now see the summer trade as stable and 7500 by year end. Well done and thanks to Boris, BOE and Brexit.
A lot of companies have either merged, di-merged or been bought during that period. You neglect to mention the profit from those companies and more importantly dividends.
The FTSE grew rapidly from 1986 to 2001 peeking just before your start point. It regressed from 2001 - 2009 and has grown fast again from 2008-2021. £10k invested in 1986 with dividends re-invested is now worth £195,852. Annualised rate of growth is 7.75% or after inflation (ARR) 5.05%. The last 10 years has actually seen average growth 7.38% with lower inflation.
I do think the FTSE has under-performed compared to other markets and see some current upside to investing. This is a mature market which is unlikely to grow as fast as others in the long run. It has been a good dividend payer and a good history of companies acquired at a premiums for investors. There's a nice 50p dividend (£5bn pay-out from Tesco arriving on friday).
The agenda in the US has now moved towards "it doesn't matter how large the national debt is". We can expect more stimulus USD900bn, then USD 1,900bn and then some more. The IMF has now said it was a mistake to curtail Greek spending in the financial crisis, so we could expect more political pressure to do the same in EU and UK. This approach will weaken the dollar but also stimulate the economy and spending. It will create more global cash that needs a home and the FTSE has benefited from this in the last 4months.
I think the FTSE will still move up this year. Corporate earnings are predicted to rise 36% in 2021, resumption of some dividends and hopefully Covid restrictions removed. I see 7,000 being hit in the next couple of months, a summer pull back and then finish above 7,200 a year end. All unless debt becomes an issue again for those who are never going to have to pay it back.
We haven't been in that position since being crippled with debt and infrastructure destroyed after WWII so unless anyone is over 75 I don't think we have ever seen that time. We are still 5th largest economy in the world, although most likely to have been overtaken by the 1bn in India now.
By land mass we are the 2nd most productive nation in the G20.
The FTSE has been the star performer since October but was the worst performer overall for 2020. It is still some way below its highs and still represents the best yielding national market . The pound is up but against the dollar is still closer to lows than recent highs. International inflows to the ftse are strong, recognising the cyclical and value nature of the stocks, under valued pound and also the over-blown brexit fears. the markets are looking beyond the next 6 weeks to ever higher commodity prices and a release of savings into leisure spending once the lock down is over.
That is a permanent risk esp with...Commodities at multi year highs, risk of miners trying to diversify, bank profits subdued due to low interest rates/provisions, brexit , usd potential decline, pharma euphoria subsides
I still think there is a bit more mileage to the rise....and cite consumer spending, lift in ind. production , dividend restarts, brexit/other country deals and low valuations compared with other markets as potential drivers. I am banking some profits but still looking for value purchases. I still think it's important to invest in other markets, I just think the ftse offers the best value for now.
Don't bite boy. I like your posts, I too, am positive on the ftse and brexit. Describing the EU as orderly and well thought out is fanciful at best. The EU is undemocratic, corrupt and wasteful. There are many opportunities post-brexit for the UK to trade with growing nations, like the ftse we just need to back the right ones.