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ROCE (ROCE) will jump to 3000 to 7000% in this annual result or it can significantly lower from
This range, but definitely way higher,
So re-rate is very likely in the cards. Risk was high for La Mancha when he took the bonds but now Glencore on board, it’s nominal
Since the loans agreedfrom banks and equity funding, market has improved significantly. IMO, BODs will come to same lines thinking aloud. La Mancha also has opportunity for quick buck. Definitely, he would prefer his investment to to up to 240m, rather than 100m now.
If La Mancha converts bonds now, market rush to fill the gap to £1.8 because financial risk will diminish significantly. SP will be up and Glencore be forced to pay premium at 400p or old 14p old price in any future funding. La Mancha holds the key.Credit profile will be massively attractive. HZM will be able to raise $400m at £4 or higher. Project will be massively deriskd
IMO, La Mancha convertible bonds are hindring the SP, which have coversion price around £1.80, though SP has crossed £1.80 in intraday. To take the full advantage of high Nickel price, Bond coversion will open the path for equity funding. Market valuation will be way high. Credit profile will also jump. Cheap take over will also be avoided.
Interesting Scenario to 1.6 billion . La Mancha shareholding around 20%, and £60m bonds at old price 8.75p. Glencore 10%, looks Glencore initially overlooked participation in funding but Nickel price forced them back in. Now , La Mancha hold the key here, if he wants to rise his investment overnight. How? By converting his bonds, SP will be between 400p to 1200p , provided Nickel price remains healthy. We all know, GGP achieved 40p, around 1.6 billion mcap at high gold price with out being funded.
These statements like “shareholders wiped out, will have no return, are on purpose. If sale proceeds cover the all debt, there is still equity which should be returned to shareholders
This $600m is in access of , means UMMC has deducted its debt and agreed to pay the access. Pls correct it if wrong.So POX hub and majority of subsidries gone.
Copper failed to cross Psychological barrier at 8000 pt, Nickel crossed Psychological barrier at 22000. Combined with Fundamentals, Recession will slow down copper consumption. But Nickel will have bull run because Russia, battery metal and steel consumption. So far , current trading pattern is coherent with fundamentals.
Assets sale will not off set
Debt pile , Dollar strong to cap the Gold ,though 1800 still healthy , war or no war , it’s same now , pox hub seems not complete. Loosing big Russian mines. HZM is better positioned to go to 2000p
Poly can keep Russian assets, and buy even POGs POX Hub. In the mean time, HZM.L looks promising return, 600p to 2000p similar to Poly
Russia supplies 10-40% World Nickel supply, though figures are conflicting.But impact can be seen in inventories. Some industries are shut in Russia, even mining was dependent on some Western suppliers. So far in emerging scenario, market has failed to give HZM real valuation between £800-1200m or £4-6. Russian Nickel percentage seems very very high compared to other commodities etc. Nickel consumption seems high in industrial nations high, not just China or EVs.