Member Info for kotichava

Discussion was about earning per share. 2023 EPs was 10p according to cabp annual accounts. Stockopedia has different way of preparing accounts and calculated EPs was 14p. Stockopedia would not consider interest income as income. Stockopedia still shows expected revenue as 133 mil, net profit 30 min and EPs 11.9.

That is expected due to the investment in the establishing offices across USA and EU.

Are you still holding Jumbo07?

Probably those who bought yesterday for quick profit are selling today?

Troubles started with the Fx income from H2 2023. Probably it has to with the margins in some regions. From now probably growth will corresponds with the transaction volumes. Traditionally 2nd half is better due to large volumes at the end of the year. Banking & other payments income and Interest income stayed almost through out the year. Fx income has been roller coaster.

Fx income(mil): 22H1 (20.3), 22H2(43.1), 23H1(37.9), 23H2(30.6), 24H1(23)

Banking & Other payments(mil): 22H1 (13.2), 22H2(20.5), 23H1(17.1), 23H2(17.1), 24H1(15)

Net interest income(mil): 22H1(3.6) 22H2(8.7), 23H1(16.8), 23H2(17.5), 24H1(16)

Unfortunately my portfolio is getting more concentrated. But CABP is worth the risk I feel.

I have added more at 82P. It will do good next few months. H2 will do well with the seasonal change. Number of transactions increasing. Ebidta was down due to setting up offices in the EU and USA regions, which are good for the long term. Net cash is > than half of mcap. Moreover USA licence is big catalyst.

Christopher Green, Chief Risk Officer & Compliance Officer knows well at least. He bought 83,449 at 60p on 01 Nov 23 for total of £50,223 and sold the same shares on 24 May 24 at 155p for total of £129,227. Good timing and advantage with insider knowledge.

Helios will reduce from 41% to 25% when we reach CHIPS clearing stage by 2027. At that time, we will be billions valuation and Helios will find institutional partner to transfer shares. Probably somebody else is selling. Looks like a few people are looking for further low entry, spreading false info.

Price action before the Pre-Close Trading Statement Release Thursday, July 25th 2024 indicates disappointed results. They gave us the hint through publication of analyst consensus on their website. We dropped a lot and can raise to respectable levels very quickly from here.

Yes. Probably we are at fair value if the analysts forecasts are correct. Communication has been very poor from the company. So far best communication is from Christopher Green. He bought 83,449 at 60p on 01 Nov 23 for total of £50,223 and sold the same shares on 24 May 24 at 155p for total of £129,227.

By analysing the past events, We started falling from 160p couple of weeks after the AGM. Analysts question were slightly negative at the AGM meet. They're forecasting for 2024 volume or revenue in Nigeria to be 70% below what it was in 2023. Headline payment and FX growth was close to 30% in 2023 in Nigeria. Income from Nigeria corridor in 2022 was 26 mil & 2024 to be 6 mil. I think forecasting is very difficult and are very random.

Net interest income from escrow accounts should be higher this year than 2023. Anyway our H1 results will be on 4th September 2024. They should give some trading update for H1 in July. May be, beating analysts forecasts give some positive sentiment.

Key information

17.7% Earnings growth rate

15.7% EPS growth rate

Diversified financial earnings growth 11.3%

Revenue growth rate 19.8%

Future return on equity 19.6%

Last updated 12 Jul 2024

Jul 10

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 12%

The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated.

2024 revenue forecast decreased from UK£143.6m to UK£139.3m.

EPS estimate also fell from UK£0.16 per share to UK£0.141 per share.

Net income forecast to grow 57% next year vs 22% growth forecast for Diversified Financial industry in the United Kingdom.

Consensus price target of UK£1.66 unchanged from last update.

Price target decreased by 7.8% to UK£1.66

Down from UK£1.80, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts.

New target price is 27% above last closing price of UK£1.31.

Stock is down 58% over the past year.

The company is forecast to post earnings per share of UK£0.14 for next year compared to UK£0.096 last year.

From simply wallstreeet

Https://cabpayments.com/investors-home/shareholder-information/analyst-consensus/

Onc the shorts are closed, these new gang of negative people organised by those shorters disappear. Half yearly results report is a month away, so those shorts are also panicky, hence they are aggressive and opened several new accounts to spread misinformation.

Looks like shorters want to close their shorts before July results. So they started becoming active and spread misinformation for volume. But as such, pIs own very less percentage of shares, so useless efforts by shorters.

EPS provides a focus on profit growth whilst TSR will provide a focus on share price and dividend growth and delivering shareholder value. The target range for adjusted EPS requires the Company’s adjusted EPS to be 37.2 pence for the financial year ending 31 December 2025 for threshold vesting and 48.9 pence or more for maximum vesting.

Total basic and diluted earnings per share for 2023 was 10p. EPS in 2023 was low due to IPO costs. It will double at least in 2024 accounts.

Hope they achieve that growth in EPS to 48.9p by next year.

With P/E of 8, EBIDTA multiple of just 6.5, Net cash of 107.5 mill ( >25% of mcap covered by cash) for a high growth company like CAB payments has a long way to go before it gets properly valued for its growth prospects.

In the year 2023, very few companies grow at the rate of 25%. Moreover they were busy sorting out IPO issues.

Presenting outlook will be given to new CEO. Probably new CEO will announce share buybacks/dividends.

EU licence in the next quarter and USA licence in H2 will be huge positive.