RE: Bencreek comp8 Mar 2023 13:54
Not a good comparison in my opinion.
Look at Zimbabwe what it's trying to achieve. Up it's countries rating for things like borrowing power.
To achieve this they set out a plan from 2021-2025 to increase its economic output & power thus hopefully increasing its nations rating.
In order to achieve this Zimbabwe has elected to go big on coal. Other minerals like nickel have also been given licence to help their economy, steel & concrete.
Tshinghan who operate in Zimbabwe ($2bn spend to date) have agreed to increase its steel capacity from 600k tonnes per annum to 5m tonnes per annum by 2025.
The Q is how can they do this & appease the ministers of Zimbabwe & achieve this goal within timeline.
Buy coal from suppliers, if so are Contango the only supplier? or are their various suppliers? To be honest I've only ever heard Contango.
If it is only Contango can they ramp up production to meet the extra 4.4m tonnes Tshinghan require to produce.
If not then is it easier for all parties involved that Tshinghan through one of its three Zimbabwe subsidiary companies buys out CGO coal business as they have the funds to ramp up production far quicker.
These are the sort of questions I'd be asking myself & then thinking what is the most likely outcome & from there try value it.
Personally I think a deal for the coal business (kept quiet for now) will probably be getting muted by Tshinghan or be negotiated at some point in the future for many multiples of the current sp.
However nothing is ever certain in life & I may be wrong we will wait & see. Gla all