Member Info for komakino

Doubt it Tier. Friday I reckon.

Unnd, that's not going to happen for sure. Apart from the numerous interviews AK has given where he has said they are looking at further acquisitions, their strategy is clearly stated in the Annual Report:

Page 5
'Strong inorganic growth potential: We continue to actively review new acquisition opportunities
in our core African region focused predominantly on:
(1) cash-generative, or near-term cash-generative, upstream and midstream assets; and/or (2) “bolt-on” assets for which there is significant synergistic value to our existing operations. In the case of the former, typically larger opportunities, our focus is upon those that: (1) are being offered by vendors who are divesting assets for “strategic” reasons; and (2) would be unit value per share accretive to Savannah. We see significant value creation potential in such deals, with the performance improvements we have delivered in our Nigerian asset base post-acquisition a prime example of how this can be achieved'

Page 16
'Key focus areas for 2022 and 2023
Over the course of the next two years, I expect there to be several key focus areas for the business. These include:
---Further hydrocarbon acquisitions. We believe there are asset divestment programmes valued in excess of
US$100 billion likely to take place, a significant portion of which are in Africa. Savannah is strongly positioned to
successfully participate in these divestment programmes, given our operating capabilities, regional reputation and
access to capital. Post-deal we would expect to act as strong asset stewards, delivering better underlying operational performance and improvements in unit carbon intensity (within the limitations of the underlying assets) than the previous asset owners; '

AK has said in interviews that this is a once in a lifetime opportunity as the majors are divesting at bargain prices because of the green agenda. Personally, I'm more than happy for AK to continue to build the company this way, even though I agree it is painstakingly slow at the moment!

Message to ExtraWorkers and TCC/SSI/ESSO entitlements regarding the registration and issuance of cheques for partial payments of their damages/interest by ESSO.

The Study Master Hisseine NGARO, informs the Ex-workers of T.C.C/SSIESSO as well as the rights holders that the phase of their registration in a new list started from the Friday, 16 September 2022 and will run until Monday, 26 September 2022. This new recording aims to be pay smoothly by ECOBANK when the check is handed over.

Former workers or dependents who reside in the provinces are asked to stay on site and be registered by the members of the Sub-offices of their Association headquartered in Doba,
which will send these lists and in which, will be registered the surname and first name as mentioned in their documents valid national identity document.

For the beneficiaries, they are asked to provide themselves with an Act of heredity, an Act of guardianship (if applicable) and a Minutes of Family Council which indicates the name of the person who will receive the check in the name of the family of the deceased.

The delivery date of the checks will be communicated later.on the airwaves of the Chadian National Radio, the radios communities and all other means of communication, once that the filling operation of the said checks with the assistance of the ECOBANK-CHAD Technical Services will be terminated.

For further information, please call the firm at
phone numbers below:
Tel: 66-29-61-75 or 99-91-16-21.

Original link here https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=162375923051800&set=a.158305173458875

Thanks Zengas, that certainly makes it feel it is just a matter of time (and I understand the irony of that phrase) before things get finalised and that there is nothing else that is causing a problem with sign off. So a positive for me.

'Minister of Oil and Energy, Mr. Djerassem Le Bemadjiel has been in London since Saturday, September 17, 2022. In the capital of England, the Minister of Petroleum and Energy represents the President of the Transitional Military Council, President of the Republic of Chad, MAHAMAT IDRISS DEBY ITNO at the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II of England, passed away on September 8, 2022.
Reminder that today 18 September 2022, the Minister of Oil and Energy went to the site of Queen Elizabeth's remains to sign the book of condolence placed therefor.'

https://www.facebook.com/M.P.Mines2020/

Hopefully he'll stop off at Bank Street with his fountain pen on the way :-)

*acquisition

There are 230 employees at Savannah as at end of 2021. The Employee Benefit Trust have cashed in approx. £10m worth of shares from the last major shareholder update in July, which takes their holding down from 7.66% to 5.28%. There have been no TR1's so suspect that the update signifies the end of their selling. The £10m equates to approx. £43k per employee. Coinciding with the last month of Q3 when the deals are supposed to be closed by, it would be nice to think that the selling really is linked to bonus deals for the acq

8th Sept Holding % +/-
Standard Life Aberdeen plc 143,297,156 10.97% +310,768
TT International 116,566,261 8.92% -1,065,224
Ingalls & Snyder 129,036,800 9.88% +3,129,300
Miton Asset Management Limited 93,899,580 7.19% -3,829,682
Cavendish Fiduciary Jersey Limited 68,964,585 5.28% -31,069,308
Capital Group Companies, Inc. 96,128,672 7.36% 0
JO Hambro Capital Management 70,197,079 5.37% +4,420,150
RWC Asset Advisors 47,182,295 3.61% +2,361,189
Andrew Knott* 48,555,409 3.72% 0
-25,742,807

Discounting the 31m sells for the Employee Benefit Scheme (Deals signed, bonuses ready?) overall there was a net increase of 5.3m since the last update on 19th July

Interesting they have chosen to tweet that!

Hi Trek, refinancing looks more like year end now rather than this quarter, according to latest FinnCap note: 'Completion of the acquisitions in Q3 should prove a strong catalyst for the shares, which will be further fuelled by the expected refinancing of Accugas debt before year end and the sanction of its Niger R3 East development.'

IR said we would get a Niger update with interims end of Sept. Hopefully the acquisitions will be before then!

Thanks Zengas. The Cemac approval is for Petronas only I recall, but there other administrative conditions attached to both acquisitions which I guess could extend the time period. Also, I suspect that SAVE would like to announce both at the same time, assuming the Nomad is in agreement. As cautionyourblast noted earlier, the ongoing National dialogue could also be playing a part in the delays. There is a longstop date of 13th December for both contracts so we should at least know by then!

At the end of the first half of 2022, the operation of the Chad/Cameroon pipeline generated, on the Cameroonian side, a transit right of 18.66 billion FCFA. This amount is up (+9.12%) compared to the same period last year. This is what emerges from a recent consultation of the Pipeline Steering and Monitoring Committee (Cpsp) whose objective was the evaluation of its activities as of June 30, 2022.

According to the Panel's report, this amount corresponds to the 22.76 million barrels of crude oil exported to the Komé-Kribi 1 terminal off Kribi during the above-mentioned period. We remember that at the end of 2021, 42 million barrels of crude oil were removed from the Komé-Kribi 1 (KK1) terminal. This corresponds to a transit right of 31.46 billion FCFA for Cameroon.

https://ecomatin.net/pipeline-tchad-cameroun-les-droits-de-transit-generent-pres-de-19-milliards-9-en-six-mois-au-cameroun/

Of course not pc!! Personally I'd be surprised if they didn't have such conversations, albeit I'm sure they must be careful about divulging specifics and would think that the Nomad would attend these. I don't know if Zengas or anyone else has any experience of these things?

Hi Zengas, how do you see the statement 'Chad and Cameroon expected to fully complete in the current quarter'? Would you think they are just going off official guidance and know no more than us, or is there a possibility they would they be basing that on more recent communications with SAVE? Not expecting you to have a definitive answer but interested in your thoughts.

Yes, good point PF. You would imagine that accessing the requisite $'s could be difficult with the money that SAVE have already borrowed for the CC deal, but without the confirmation of the revenue that will come with that once the deal is signed. So maybe it is all just tied up with CC deal completion. Would be nice if AK provided a bit more info to stop us having to guess.

Yes, agree with you on Niger, pushing Niger out to end of Sept for news when AK was adamant it was a few weeks away from being announced in June does suggest it's tied in with the CC deal from a financing perspective. AK also said the next acquisition would not result in an RTO and my reading of that was strongly that it would have to wait till the CC deal completed. Given how long these deals take to complete, we could be pleasantly surprised that all the legwork for the next deal has been done during the CC delay, and we get an announcement hot on the heals of the CC completion. A nice thought anyway :-)

I've always maintained it's standalone to CC. As to why SAVE haven't managed to complete this.... the only thing I can think of is that AK will only take a deal on his terms, hence the long drawn out process. But realistically only AK knows. Would be good to explain the factors preventing progress rather than just letting us know via IR it has been kicked back to end of year. Remember, this was one of AK's kpi's for 2021, so hopefully he's getting a few quid knocked off his bonus for this!

The refinancing is for Accugas, which is only partly owned by Savannah (80%). The refinancing needs to be in Nigerian local currency to be effective (Naira), so it has to be with a Nigerian lender.

Worth re-posting BarrelsandBonds' post on 24th July on this topic

'The point is that they will refinance in local currency. Logic is: contracts are in US$ but paid in naira, i.e. naira income will keep track of exchange rate depreciation. It is reasonable to see NGN inflation as closely linked to exchange rates. End result is that revenue keeps track of inflation.

Hence the central bank chasing inflation is less of an issue. As long as they don't go much higher than inflation then SAVE's income can totally keep up. Note for example that the sizeable naira balance that they currently have *should* be accumulating at base rate as well. If we then assume base rate = inflation then banks simply get the spread, which makes sense. Equally, if it's lower than realised inflation (it currently is) then the debt is eroded away naturally in real terms. That's SAVE's idea at least, I presume.

Not denying that international capital markets are tight at the moment, but SAVE wants to raise it from local players and in local currency while having US$-linked revenue. Slightly different situation. Note also that Accugas was IG-rated according to the annual report. So situation is not as dire as you suggest, although it is reasonable to assume negotiations are not super easy at the moment.'

I think we all wish that LST!! There's not been a squeak in the African press and social media since Zengas posted the following:

'Chad: the CNT closes its first ordinary session
Alwihda Info | By Anass Ali Moussa - June 30, 2022

'....As part of the monitoring of government action, two arrests relating to issues related to the dilapidated state of the road network, as well as the situation of Chadian employees in Chinese companies and Esso, the spillage of oil in nature, the sale of shares of Exxon Mobil to Savannanh Energy and other oil projects in progress, have been addressed to the government, specifies the PCNT.'

19th July a poster on ADVFN (otemple3) also spoke to Investor Relations and posted the following:

'Niger drilling plan is being released with H1 results apparently, which based on last few years is end of Sept.
Seems odd to say imminent if that is the case and will be a shame to tie in with 1st half results'

So even if no news on the acquisitions we should get something end of the month, even if it's just the results!!