Member Info for Kokomo

U.S. crude oil inventories decrease by 9.2 million barrels

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 9.2 million barrels from the previous week. At 420.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are 5% below the five year average for this time of year, according to the EIA crude oil and petroleum weekly storage data, reporting inventories as of January 19, 2024.

https://www.oilandgas360.com/crude-inventories-1-19/

Brent has crossed the USD $80 resistance here and currently trading at ~$80+ mark while UK and European Gas prices are now also both on the rise:

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities

Wintershall Dea secures five licenses as operator in latest APA round

Wintershall Dea has been awarded 13 exploration licenses on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (five as operator).

STAVANGER — Wintershall Dea has been awarded 13 exploration licenses by the Norwegian Ministry of Energy in the 2023 Award in Predefined Areas (APA).

Five licenses were awarded to Wintershall as operator and eight as a partner.

Wintershall has participated in 19 discoveries since 2019. Most of these are the result of licenses awarded in previous APA rounds.

“In terms of our operated fields, in the last two years we have begun production on Dvalin and Nova, and we will start production on Dvalin North and Maria Phase 2 in the coming years," said Michael Zechner, Wintershall Dea Norge Managing Director. "Most of these developments began with our gaining of licenses through awards in previous APA rounds. The continued development of fields ensures that we can supply much needed gas to Europe and especially Germany, where Norway was the most important gas supplier in 2023."

Three of the licenses awarded are in the North Sea (one as operator) and 10 in the Norwegian Sea (four as operator). Nine of the awards are new licenses, and four are area extensions to existing licenses.

The Norwegian Sea awards are located in the Vøring Basin, where Wintershall has a stake in the Aasta Hansteen Field, and the Haltenbanken area, where Wintershall is the operator of the Maria and Dvalin fields.

In the North Sea, the awards are located in the Q35 area, close to the Wintershall-operated Nova and Vega fields, and the Tampen area close to the Snorre Field where Wintershall is a partner.

https://www.offshore-mag.com/regional-reports/north-sea-europe/article/14303713/wintershall-dea-secures-five-licenses-as-operator-in-latest-apa-round

Twenty-four companies awarded licenses under Norway’s latest APA bid round

Energy Minister Terje Asland said, “Last year I specifically encouraged companies to explore opportunities in the Barents Sea. This year we are offering more than double the number of production licenses in this region compared to last year's round.

“This shows that several companies have responded positively to the call, and that they are conscious of their social responsibilities. Proving more gas resources is important for profitability, by increasing the export capacity from this region.”

Sixteen of the new production licenses are additional acreage to existing licenses.

"We can see that the companies still have plenty of faith in making more discoveries in areas with familiar geology and close to existing infrastructure,” said Kalmar Ildstad, director license management at the Norwegian Offshore Directorate. “It's important to prove resources so that available capacity in established process plants and pipeline systems can be utilized. This means that even small discoveries can yield significant value creation."

The list includes Harbour Energy.

Wintershall DEA

Wintershall Dea has been awarded 13 exploration licenses by the Norwegian Ministry of Energy in the 2023 Award in Predefined Areas (APA). Five licenses were awarded to Wintershall as operator and eight as a partner. Wintershall has participated in 19 discoveries since 2019. Most of these are the result of licenses awarded in previous APA rounds.

https://www.offshore-mag.com/regional-reports/north-sea-europe/article/14303882/twenty-four-companies-awarded-licenses-under-norways-latest-apa-bid-round

Brent slowly inching back towards $80 while UK and European Gas prices are also up today, personally, I see both HBR and O&G prices here as a grand bargain at the moment while fear is overcoming greed in what is fundamentally an amazing 2024 opportunity in HBR.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities

Good post Stev, I agree, and now very much look forward to the Q4 estimated deal closure with HBR back in the FTSE100 shortly thereafter.

Reuters - January 18, 2024

BASF says government review of Wintershall sale expected

BERLIN, Jan 18 (Reuters) - German chemicals maker BASF (BASFn.DE), opens new tab said on Thursday that a government review of its $11.2 billion deal to give control over its energy business Wintershall Dea to Britain's Harbour Energy (HBR.L), opens new tab was standard procedure.

Its statement followed a report by German daily Handelsblatt earlier on Thursday that the planned sale by co-owners BASF (BASFn.DE), opens new tab and LetterOne would be examined "very intensively" by the economy ministry.

"The review of the transaction is in line with our usual and expected procedure," a company spokesperson said in an emailed statement.

When asked about the report, a ministry spokesperson declined comment because the issue concerned internal proceedings.

Under certain conditions, the German government can prohibit a company takeover, if the buyer is not from the European Union.

According to a government source, a review is not yet underway and the deal is not seen as being problematic.

Kerstin Andreae, head of German power and water utilities' lobby group BDEW, said last week that the government should watch for possible effects of Wintershall Dea's CO2 storage technology knowledge being sold, adding that in her opinion, BASF was entitled to sell Wintershall.

Harbour Energy had agreed in December to acquire the Wintershall Dea assets in the deal with BASF and LetterOne that creates one of the world's biggest independent producers.

The deal, expected to close in the fourth quarter, is in line with a number of large oil and gas acquisitions in recent months.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/basf-says-government-review-wintershall-sale-expected-2024-01-18/

harbour tips new production at leverett amid drilling uptick in 2024

harbour energy said it would look to boost uk drilling activity in 2024 and bring online production from the discovery appraised last year.

leverett online in late 2024

harbour also confirmed the successful appraisal of the leverett discovery, which it said would support production “from late 2024” alongside volumes from the multi-well talbot development.

in its last trading update in november 2023, the company said “good flow rates” had been achieved at leverett and a planned final appraisal side track was underway at that time.

the neo-operated well, 21/3d-9, was spudded in july with the paul b loyd jr semi-sub, and sidetracked in early september. ithaca has previously quoted potential 1c-2c-3c resources of 0 – 19.1 – 42 mmboe.

harbour holds equity in the discovery alongside ithaca energy, and has suggested leverett could be tied-back to infrastructure in the former’s greater britannia area.

this includes “increased uk drilling activity” targeting “high return, quick payback” opportunities in the j-area, greater britannia and aele hubs, in addition to the talbot development. all of these will add to production and support cash flow starting in late 2024, it said.

internationally harbour will pursue its exploration campaign in indonesia, where drilling of the halwa and ***o wells on the andaman ii license is underway. in mexico, feed work for the zama development and the drilling of the kan appraisal well is also in progress.

harbour expects to pay $200m in dividends this year, comprising a $100m final dividend for 2023 and a $100m 2024 interim dividend

the first half of the year will see the group remain net debt free, though will close the year in “a small net debt position” owing to the weighting of uk tax payments.

2025 would see similar production to 2024, albeit with less maintenance and additional volumes from new wells and projects offsetting decline.

however, it hopes for “significantly higher” free cash flow compared to this calendar, resulting in “a sizeable net cash position” by the end of 2025.

“we also advanced our uk ccs projects and our international growth opportunities in indonesia and mexico, delivering against key milestones. and, at year end, we announced the transformational acquisition of the wintershall dea portfolio.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/545845/harbour-tips-new-production-at-leverett-amid-drilling-uptick-in-2024/

Today’s update is totally irrelevant given the massive post Wintershall DEA M&A picture, by year end HBR will be the size of Aker BP, securely back in the FTSE 100, and easily more than double (if not treble+) of today’s market cap, today is only for day to day trades of whom we have a few here, like many other shares. GLA.

Bloomberg

OPEC Sees Robust Oil Demand Next Year in First Look at 2025

Consumption seen rising by 1.8 million barrels a day next year

Forecasts imply global supply deficit through to end of 2025

OPEC forecast that global oil demand will continue to increase strongly next year and exceed growth in supplies, according to the group’s first detailed assessment of 2025.

World consumption will swell by a “robust” 1.8 million barrels a day next year, driven by China and a recovering global economy, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its monthly market report. The forecast comes on the same day that the alliance’s top official published a rebuttal to predictions that oil demand is heading toward a peak.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-17/opec-sees-robust-oil-demand-next-year-in-first-look-at-2025?leadSource=uverify%20wall

First update post December’s Wintershall DEA M&A announcement here tomorrow, could be interesting.

Harbour Energy: a transformational opportunity?

FTSE 250 oil and gas producer Harbour Energy (LON:HBR) is now the largest independent oil producer in the North Sea. I reckon it could also become a FTSE 100 member by the end of 2024, if the recently-announced $11.2bn deal to acquire the majority of Wintershall Dea’s production assets goes ahead as planned.

Harbour is also currently one of the most highly-ranked UK shares in the Stockopedia universe, with Super Stock status and a StockRank of 98 at the time of writing:

Recent financial performance has been excellent.

These windfall profits also enabled Harbour to accelerate its planned debt repayments. Net debt fell from $2.8bn at the end of 2021 to less than $800m at the end of June 2023

With a rolling forecast P/E of 6 and a dividend yield of nearly 7%, Harbour’s value metrics appear quite attractive

Private investors who have been in the UK markets for a while are likely to remember Premier Oil. This business was a well-established North Sea operator and also had assets in certain Asian markets.

My impression was always that Premier was a good operator, but its financial position was weak.

The word transformative is sometimes overused in investment commentary, but I don’t think it’s an exaggeration in terms of the potential impact of the Harbour/Wintershall Dea combination.

https://www.stockopedia.com/content/harbour-energy-a-transformational-opportunity-986046/

Interesting price action today, HBR certainly has a busy calendar this year and some of which has already been laid out including The AGM date.

https://www.harbourenergy.com/investors/financial-calendar/

It’s not only the outlook here that’s incredibly attractive, it’s also the nice dividend yield.

Harbour Energy: Transformational Acquisition Resulting In A 7% Dividend Yield

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4662852-harbour-energy-transformational-acquisition-resulting-in-7-percent-dividend-yield

14 January 2024

BREAKING NEWS - 6 Trillion KK Gas Found from Andaman Aceh WK, Government Opens Option to Build New Refinery

PIKIRANACEH.COM - Oil and Gas (Migas) reserves totaling 4.68 billion barrels were discovered in Aceh. The discovery of jumbo oil and gas reserves is claimed to exceed reserves in Saudi Arabia.

The exact location is at the Layaran-1 South Andaman Exploration well. The location is around 100 kilometers off the coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia.

Currently there are two large KKKS consortia there, namely Harbour Energy and Mubadala

https://aceh.pikiran-rakyat.com/news/amp/pr-2987589696/breaking-news-6-triliun-kk-gas-ditemukan-dari-wk-andaman-aceh-pemerintah-buka-opsi-bangun-kilang-baru?page=all

Another HBR partnered project nicely in progress:

Var Energi granted North Sea drilling permit

Vår Energi ASA has been granted a permit by the Norwegian Offshore Directorate for drilling in the North Sea.

Exploration well 25/8-23 S will be drilled by Odfjell Drilling’s Deepsea Yantai semisubmersible platform in production license 956.

Vår Energi is operator of the license with 50% interest. Partners are Aker BP ASA (20%), Sval Energi AS (15%), and Harbour Energy Norge AS (15%).

https://www.ogj.com/drilling-production/article/14303594/var-energi-granted-north-sea-drilling-permit

Spot on with the note theancientmarine, if you’re here for the medium to longer term (which I am), it’s all coming together very very nicely (including O&G prices and expiring hedges), ignore daily market fluctuations which often also provide opportunities, only concentrate on fundamentals here and enjoy the ride!

Brent has now crossed the $80 resistance here and trading at $80+ mark, UK, European, and Natural Gas prices all also nicely on the rise, basically, we have ourselves a very bullish rally.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities

Brent, UK and European Gas prices (along with Natural Gas) all now nicely up here and looking bullish at the moment while Brent is also slowly closing in on the ~$80 mark:

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities