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All great posts in this thread - everyone balanced (apart from Moon buying RMM!)

Huge loss of Trust in BOD but Mkt Cap is stupidly low - he who dares Rodney

The issue is these swings mean they become more regular and more chance to trade - so many here will take profit beyond 35p / 40p / 45p - look at the volume between RNS, its dead

GLA with making money - hope those in loss will be back in profit soon - fingers crossed for amazing Gold Assay results

Alfreddie - spot on bro

Great having a Miner at the helm if you have a CFO that can reign him in - clearly we dont even have a CFO and the lunatics are taking over the asylum

We "knew" last Dec 23rd when TB replied to the question "will we be asked before another placing" - he said, "you were today"

The last weeks seller will have been "one of the boys" to get the price down yet further - BOD and BM will not lose out - they will be taken care of (all this nonsense about BM being in it with the rest of us - some clearly dont know how this works)

Covid used as an excuse - then today say it had little effect - no 5hit sherlock! - anyone with any commonsense knew that was the case - but Jan 4 RNS was about "Covid and the financial implications"? No it wasnt, it was the trigger to get SP down for "the boys" to get more shares on the cheap

Heres a novel suggestion (not one Ive heard before!!!) - lets vote down the next ability to issue 10% of OUR company without us having a say - make them do a rights issue when more cash is needed and let us get a proper prospectus to support it.

I believe this was planned since the Nov debt for equity change of plan - they didnt have to spend on development, they couldve mined enough to get the output and the cash - you know, like putting the horse ahead of the cart - managed cash like any proper business - but that wouldnt get the mates in on the cheap would it

IMO, this could easily have been avoided, but was agreed in November and played out over the last couple of months with ease - throw the H&S issue in, Covid was just too good a chance to drive the SP down further - leave it 4 weeks to do that raise and sell down a load of 50k tranches to drive SP even further

Then "the boys" get their entry

All those that lambasted me back in December for saying this - go take a look at your comments

We have been totally played (again) by a duplicitous BOD - forget about the bags this should have given us - we be lucky to be a quid in 2 years time - 40p will take forever to break now IMO - maybe this year but late this year

I'm back to small loss - many are nowhere near as lucky - not buying any to trade at this price yet though

IIs wont buy on open market, and thats the only thing to take the SP up properly - expect this to stay relatively low until a sale on 2-3 years time

All IMO, but please DYOR

Blue83 - almost everything you wrote above is factually incorrect - suggest you research the company or close your short before the bounce and take another one out at 50p

PLEASE DYR

Wiseys - yes remember it well!!

Would love it (only the shorts would hate it!) - bring it on if we can, these are just my opinions as to why I dont think anyone will buy CPI and that it needs to have the turnaround completed then left to someone good to run it in a stable form not looking to buy companies for the sake of building turnover

As most people in business know. Turnover = Vanity, Profit = Sanity, Cash = Sovereignty

GLA

Capitalizer - I am sure the large PEs have looked at it - I just think they would have to pay 80p plus to get the IIs to sell up

There are so many opportunities for PE at the moment, I think they would not see the value proposition with CPI unless that could buy at say 40-50p and there is no way CPI board would recommend that and IIs (i believe) would reject it

Dont get me wrong, I would love a PE offer at 80p tomorrow - just dont think its realistic at all

GLA

JG - totally different industries and earning potential / M&A potential

CPI has traditionally been owned by IIs and grey haired looking for consistent (above avg) dividends (not capital gain)

I think it will bob about here for another couple of weeks then start to see a bounce into mid 40s again and even mid 50s (again) in the next 3 mths - the most important thing I want in March results is the fwd looking statements - as you say, if (non IFRS16) debt is materially reduced and pension deficit eradicated, and free cash flow from profits expected to clear or almost clear debt in 2022, the trend for the rest of 2022 will be upward

JL stating that if things go to plan then we expect to start paying modest dividends in 2023, a rerate will occur to a 50p base IMO and the upward trend from there

Yes its a dog if youve not traded this in last 2 years - but its been my most profitable share and expect to make a loan more pretty soon

GLA and pls DYOR

JG - I have said many times why I do not think CPI is a takeover target

I dont see it would be of any interest to another company as a strategic addition due to it being so diverse and therefore synergies are unlikely. Also expect they would have to pay 80-100p to get the IIs to sell up.

PE would then need to do something with it to get to a 3-5multiple to sell - if there is no real trade buyer, then PE option is to take it private - strip corporate costs, asset strip like mad and maybe try and win additional contracts (possibly at slightly lower margins?) but it will be heavily in debted again - then whats their exit? IPO?

Just doesnt make sense to me, hence why I dont think it will be bought out either by a trade sale or a PE

Govt contract business is a Dividend company - safe with guaranteed income and margin being distributed by Dividends

Its all about getting debt free with free cash from profits sufficient to pay reasonable dividends - SP will then be on Divi Yield basis rather than and multiple of revenue or EBITDA or Profit before tax etc

Frustrated that market has reacted to push this into 60s by now, but 2022 will be a hell of a rise IMHO based on the RNSs we have been given

GLA and GYOR

Alfreddie - NO

GL

Its good news to dispose of yet another business if its not wanted - it was only generating 16M before tax on 122M revenue

Taking 122M revenue off of CPI total revenue is not a material figure at all and and 16M EBT means over 7 x EBT - (possibly up to 9-10 x EBITDA?)

Thats a decent enough return for a business unit thats not core

Another 120M off of (non IFRS16) debt is great news and well beating the 700M disposal target is wonderful - Revenue and more importantly Profit and cash free earnings from continued operations is now the focus

Few more disposals to be done and then all that free cash is available for restarting divis

JL is doing a decent enough job and although Covid hampered some of the plan, I am sure many of the office closures etc were sped up because of Covid and although they hit 2020 Financials hard in the "exceptional expenses" category, they will have had the effect of reducing operating cost from 2022

Market reacted well (initially) but typical of CPI luck, that the announcement is on a day where the FTSE is taking a hammering!

Recovering now and thinking this could still end green today, but today is immaterial - keeping buying at these levels is my moto - and I keep doing it!

Not advice - DYOR - GLA

It will be very interesting to see the level of BI claim and the cash implications from its payout - clearly this could not have been agreed with insurers between Xmas and today, so lets hope we get a good news RNS in Feb with the quantum

It will be FY results day before we know what affect the BI Insurance will have had on 2021 profitability

Really need the company to confirm a turnover range for 2022. They mention "market expectations" but they need to be more clear in their forecasts

Disappointed now but will be adding at these levels

GLA

Agreed that was what I expected earlier last year - what I said above was "80p by March was my prediction since last summer when we had the update"

We cant see all your comments of - "this will go bust" "20p to PE" etc because you were deleted - or you deleted yourself so that we couldnt show you up for the clown you are

As I said to you last August - I do think you know the business very well - I think you understand the finances etc but you deliberately post misleading or part truths (like the debt) but quote IFRS Debt as being cash borrowings (which you know they arent but many PIs wont understand)

You shorted it and made money and good on you. Hope you then bought before results and made money again - what you cant sensibly comment on is why is a company has free cashflow (say 300M) and pays out 100M in Dividends (6-7p) why the SP wont rerate to a quid (or more).

I also said the IIs would need a quid min to sell out - I still believe that - are you still saying this is going bust or be lucky to get 20p on a buyout?

Cos if you are, Im happy to bet a lot of money (which I am) that this gets to a quid and wont go bust!

GL and keep making money

NYForever - or its the MMs borrowing the shares without the buyer knowing - selling them down so effectively shorting against the buyer

There is a theory that MMs do this on low volume companies

Couple of corrections pal - 80p by March was my prediction since last summer when we had the update - this was when your old account saying "certain to go bust" etc and "Like AA they could be rescued at 20p"

You are full of it and so much so had your account suspended so many times you've had to come back as a ghost

On the basis of what CPI have given us (Barclays appear to agree with me!) - 80p is FV for this share.

Many of the disposals were either
a. not for materially profitable business units but units that needed a load of cash spent on them
b. were at very good multiples -8-11 times EBITDA

This SP level is crazy and last August when you kept spouting similar nonsense, I bought 100 grands worth at these prices and sold all out in 40-50 range (when MW openned their short), so made a load of profit - I have bought that trading money back in here but have kept my LTH money in my kids ISAs

This is now at a level I will be very happy to start chucking in big cash and freeing cash up to do so is my priority

All the nonsense you spout about it going bust or now the rhetoric is "not going bust for now" is simply funny - if you are not a buyer at these prices, you are not a trader in CPI - I put real money in - seems you play with fantasy money and theoretical profits

Anyway, I hope you make actual money whether you're investing or shorting it matters not to me - I dont short but happy to sell up and help the shorts then buy back in lower.

Free cash with debt paid off means dividends - that means rerate - jump on the bus when you want, and who knows it may still be on stop until March, but it will move sometime and it simply aint going (any or much) lower than it is currently (IMO) - unless of course Schroeders do what they did last year and sell a load then buy a lot more back cheaper - their last M quid investment was at 45p so they may want to play it for the next 5 weeks

Get you cash ready guys but DYOR and never buy or sell anything based upon what some randomers write on a BB

Fact check is best - GLA

Passwind - I am only taking what CPI issue and help people decipher it

It is due to have little (non IFRS16) debt by end of year and their expected cash free profits should be 250-350M (wide range I know!)

If they spent 100M on divis (say 6p) then SP over a quid is absolutely realistic

Questions remain, will they be (non IFRS16) Debt free by year end? and secondly, will cash free profits from Continued Operations be circa 300M.

They are intimating at both those being answered yes, and that is why I say the SP should be a quid (by end of year) or certainly during H1 2023.

August (H1) will tell us more than March (2021) about this years profits, but it should give us an insight as to debt levels

To be debt free (non IFRS16) by year end, I calculate that with the balance of expected disposals then profit has to be within the target range - still a LTH for me and due to its small debt and multiple govt contracts, its still (IMHO) one of the safest shares on the market

But please DYOR - Its been a very profitable share for me, because I buy when it goes so low as it is now!

GLA

Totally agree Capitaliser

CPI / RMM (massive Canadian copper turnaround) and ITX are by far my biggest holdings

Bear market or not I expect to do very well with all 3 - fingers tightly crossed!

GLA

FTSE 100 hasnt recovered to pre covid levels

The current climate (all the things you mentioned will be tough on UK market IMO)

BUT, NY has seen record gains with loads of over priced nonsense - UK markets are more traditional businesses

Of course we will see UK fall as NY falls - but decent businesses will always do well

CPI is way undervalued (has been since summer 2020) - whatever price you think its worth, 50p/70p /80p quid or more, all of them are way higher than todays SP

Never going to go bust as debt is almost gone - most income is govt backed so bad debt is not a risk

Manage the contracts to make 10% and the rest looks after itself

With debt repaid and free cashflow of up to 300M quid - if you distribute 10p per share, thats 168M of the 300M profit

10p divi on a SP of 30-40p is one hell of a return!!

10p divi would support a SP of closer to 150p

As soon as they show (non IFRS16) debt will be almost totally paid off and free cashflow from profits is 250-350M, and dividends to return, this will still absolutely fly (IMO)

Yes there maybe some higher people costs to consider in the short term (NI etc) BUT the profits they should now be making on Continued Operations, will take care of debt and show 2023 divis level will be achievable

THAT is why I believe in this turnaround

Pls DYOR and if youve bought on the back of my (or anyone elses advice) you must be mad!

GLA

Rinse and repeat baby

GLA

Positive Free Cashflow from next year = divis - that is what THIS share needs more than anything - that was what took it to the SP it was

They are an easy target and gutted SP hasnt gone where I expected, but making money trading it and i still believe its WAAAYYYY undervalued and will continue to give great returns if you have the time / patience

No Financial advise and holding a decent amount again (and added / adding) so am bound to be bullish

GLA

Dankatie - If there is a takeover, there has to be an offer price for all of the shares and if the company recommends it it goes through a load of DD and we get paid that offer price (or close to it)

Would love to see it sold (as with all my AIM shares also!) BUT IMO, its unlikely as the exit for this type of business v the SP that would get the IIs to sell, means the buyer struggles with seeing the multiple times value increase

But this is just my Opinion - still Ive added today at these prices to trade - may go a little lower (and have buys set in case it does) but 38p sees a 10% profit!

This shares keeps on giving

Silver is minimal - I dont even consider it in financials - whatever cash they get is great but its very small $$