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If we look at it from another angle and following on from my earlier post. If you had a short open on this would you close it?
I believe the answer to that atm is no, so with that being said I think the bottom is still not in and until that signal arrives I shall leave this until the next FTSE reshuffle at least.
One thing I learnt when trading shares is never try and pick the bottom, because it is highly unlikely you will get it right.
With the sp being in a downtrend for a few years now I would have a guess that the bottom is getting close but it does depend on a few factors. 1) The new CEO must start to portray the company in a positive light by moving the company forward not sideways. 2) With the Q1 results coming in ok the next step would be to see an improvement in Q2. If there is a slight improvement then happy days.
The financial metrics and ratios offer good value for money around the current sp and the divi looks safe for the following year providing things do not get much worse.
However, there is a catch I still feel BT is too expensive in the services it offers to the retail side - it doesn't offer value for money in my eyes. You can get better deals for bb away from BT. I am also a little unsure as to what their retail target market is for its services.
Despite my concerns I took up some shares in BT but my calculations and predictions suggest the sp may fall a little further even after taking the ex div into account. I shall buy more after ex div date and another trance leading up to the next set of results depending how it goes. I do believe that the company is gradually turning and a little good news like what happened to VOD may come BTs way. Either way Im happy to start buying BT around these levels
IMO the final sp drop for CNA will come when this drops out of the FTSE 100. Once that has been completed then I feel the bottom could well be in. All the pension funds will have to dump the shares thereby cementing the last fall. After this then it could start looking more positive with a new CEO to bring fresh ideas and a change of strategy or the possibility of a takeover. The take-over could come earlier if the pound continues to fall making UK companies cheaper to overseas buyers. An interesting few months lie ahead what with Brexit and a possible general election!
Sp is testing previous break out level which is currently holding. As long as this level holds should then begin to move up.
but I can see another takeover bid coming once Woodford has cleared all or a large part of his holding.
A lot depends on the trading update next month and if its not moving in the right direction I just can't see how the management will take the co forward. Could this be why the Director holdings are coming through thick and fast in order to negate a hostile takeover? just a thought
20% climb in a week ,...hummm..... that is kind of odd - Not really first target of 40p has been hit as mentioned in previous posts.
.....why hasnt there been any retrace? There was on Monday afternoon going into Tuesday morning. Come on keep up!!
Next target is mid 40's (44ish) but their may be a slight correction to low 38 before heading higher again. Tomorrow would be a good day if it just consolidates the rise as their may be some profit taking leading into the weekend.
Sp has just closed the gap from this morning open as expected. Should see it move on up from here.
Even better news is that there is still a gap on the daily chart from the drop in April which needs to be filled. With current momentum I am optimistic this will be achieved but need to see how the sp reacts at 40
If we look at this the other way then - if a dividend cut is priced in then if one is announced the sp should rise! That to me sounds like a trap!
Just because the sp is low does not mean it offers value. I am of the opinion this still has further to fall but we need to see what is in the half year update next month to see if the company is achieving its strategy.
Once the two large trades of yesterday RNS have been properly absorbed I do see this making headway. It will always come and test the breakout area and at this level it should move on up providing it doesn't break the tend line down. The AGM is done and dusted so lets see if the bod strategy starts bringing the income in
Another possibility of a takeover may stop it. If the bod can't deliver on its strategy then another company may feel it can do better. In short the bod must now start delivering and with an update due it could be wait until then.
As mentioned before should see this hit 40p - It is still in ex div so gains will be modest but this time next week when the dividend is paid could prove a turning point. Nice to see if it builds momentum next week but two days in a row is a good start.
is that the ex div period expired today when the dividend was paid. Lets see what Monday brings.
This share is still within the exdiv period so gains will be limited until the period expires at the end of June.
From July onwards you may see a steady climb now that the AGM is out of the way and investors have a better idea of the way forward. If the momentum builds over the next week then this may well be the bottom.
took a position just under 32 - see it getting to 40's and beyond if my charts serve me well
CNA has been in decline for the last 6 years with the odd small correction in between.
There are many issues still facing this company and it will be interesting to see what progress has been made with the half yearly update on the 30 July.
I am of the opinion that the dividend must be cut and until then I personally will stay away from the trap it may present.
.who cares.....I would say that is irrelevent ...the world changes ....I am not interested in what it was...that was then...this is now....
if you don't care about the value of your investments there are others on here that do.
Im sure you know there are many ways of investing be it value investing (as you highlighted) or swing investing to name but a few. Whatever method you use I say each to their own as long as it fits with their strategy and returns a profit.
I noticed you missed the point I made that proof that the bottom is in and then it is confirmed. the key to that statement is CONFIRMED. I will explain why if you could answer some of my questions.
Using your theory at buying below market value is all well and good but what would you say is fair market value? Will you decide what is value or let the city do it for you?
If we say for example the sp goes to a £1 would that be market value? If it is where do you think the bigger players would enter?
If you could answer those two points I will explain a little more as to why value investing is a little flawed if you don't understand how the market works.