Member Info for kingivor

Re - rate in progress.
Expecting a move for our HHDL stake 18%

Valuation of Alba today
HHDL today more than Ukog paid to Solo plus as strong ewt so far on kl3 so say conservatively £10m
Brockham today say £3m
Greenland £2m
Gmow £2m
Total £17m

On success of end of ewt kl3 + kl4 then HHDL £25m
succesful Brockham production £6m
Others thrown in £5m
Total £36m by end 2018 or 1.2p' ish.

Obvious candidate to get the 18% of horse hill, other than Ukog would be Angus.
An angus bid for Alba would also bring them an extra 5 % of Brockham.

Alba might just be ' in play ' for a bid.

Q to you all.
How do Ukog best get control of Alba's participating interest in HHDL?

Just to add.
I expect Ukog to act rapidly to get control.

Very interesting CofE

How do Ukog get their hands on Alba's 18% of HHDL?

The value of the asset is only going up as GF knows that significant revenues are in sight as early as H2 next year. Would £15m : half cash, half ukog equity do it? I doubt it.

Also possible Alba get approached by 3rd paries for their share of HHDL or even a takeout with the companies mcap so low and the stock largely controlled by retail investors.

Alba's overheads run at around c.£800k pa
If Brockham 4 comes in at 1500bopd then our 5% participating interest
gives 75 bopd at £45 netback and fully covers our fixed costs going foward.
At 3000/150 bopd we could likely fully fund our future growth commitments to hhdl.
Brockham 4 production is an important milestone for Alba.

The penny is starting to drop

Game on !

Horse Hill ewt is earning us gross revenue of £6,000 per day. TODAY

On the assumption that the Brockham 4 well comes in at 1500 bopd that equates to Alba revenues of approximately $2.2m pa.at $80 brent
Basically will pay our forward costs for horse hill development and mean no or minimal equity dilution going forward.

Some point soon, the market is going to catch on to the value proposition here.
Maybe this afternoon even.

One is a sidetrack Into the Kimmeridge limestones the other a development well into the Portland.

For 5p

People buying in 12 months time will be scratching their heads to understand how these were available at less than 0.5p

Stuff Cloggau.
Horse Hill is the gold mine!

thanks double,
saw the ukog news which i believe to be very significant, dipped my toe in here but before getting heavily involved wanted to know if there is any hidden baggage

In 12 months time Horse Hill could be doing 6 wells across 3 layers each well at 2000bopd
12000 bopd x $85 dollar brent x 12% working interest gives revenues of $44m p.a
£13m Mcap here. Downside from here must be zero and upside a ten bagger+

Why is the market not valuing this at c.25% of the Ukog's Mcap plus a bit for the 5% of Brockham and the other assets. Surely fair value has to be in region of 0.85p ?

Without a plan b they would have gone to the wire then announced non concluson of the jv.
good chance of the prospective partner completing now imo
dyor etc