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I'm already calling a 1bn share placing in late March for £350k
Stt stated
"Canaccord had a 30p target on TLY, compared to HVO Nomad's target of 29p.
The Nomads are closer to the business than media and PIs."
I don't want to be negative of TLY but Canaccord can't keep up with the downgrades, from 70p to 30p and further lowering probably to be expected soon. Also TLY have stopped forecasting revenue, that's how bad things are for them right now. I hope they do turn around but that's just where things are right now.
Meanwhile with Liberium, HVO have gone from 19p up to 29 in the last year and further upgrades are likely this year.
Stt,
"It proves my point, there is no evidence of significant buying or holdings by institutions."
But it doesn't necessarily mean much. Value the businesses.
if you anonymised the financial accounts of hVivo and TLY and provided them to 100 investors and asked them where they would put there money. What percentage would choose TLY, not many I would guess.
CEO options, PI vs II ownership doesn't change the core business function/performance.
On the share register on hVivo(updated 13th December) it lists Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management as having 3.19% ownership.
If this is just nominee accounts I wouldn't have expected to see them listed or at least all nominee accounts(ie Davy,etc) listed but just checking on my brokers page and I don't see them listed. Any ideas?
Although I can see that my broker has updated Shareholdings to the end of the year,
JP Morgan Asset Management (UK) Ltd 2.18% - Up 1% in the last quarter
Liontrust Investment Partners LLP 1.6% - Up 20% in the last quarter
Hargreave Hale Limited 1.47% - Up 70% in the last quarter
River and Mercantile Asset Management 0.97% - All bought in the last quarter.
I don't want to have to filter the guy but not from from happening.
He put the following points to Hallsworthy,
"There's no evidence of significant buying by Institutions...2021, 2022, 2023."
Fair enough that there are currently no 3%+ II. There are a number of them between 1-2% but I can only see the top 5. on my brokerage account. But lets wait and see does this change during the early part of the year on the back of the trading update,FY2023 results. The company is generating increasing revenues/profilts. First non adjusted positive EPS also expected this year.
"Look what happened to a lot of covid shares which were ramped on PI sentiment?"
FFS on these boards all shares get ramped, including you on TLY! Sure we might aswell shut down the forum then. Also there is no more ramping and probably less here than on many other stocks.
"That is a red flag."
No a red flag, is dropping contracts, dropping revenues, disintegrating cash balance, chairman changes, dropping multi year paid interim dividend.. None of which has happened to hVivo.
"It might explain why they don't pay regular, normal, dividends."
Announced first dividend last year and a regular one starting this year.
"Despite receiving money due to exercise of warrants and revenues from Polb as of Q3, the expected cash is declining. You would expect cash to be increasing and not declining."
Firstly no mention that cash doubled from H2 2022(~£15m) to H2 2023(~£30m).
I still believe that this is a timing issue but we shall see in the update for January and if there is any doubt on this question I will raise it myself at the Q&A
"Might also explain why this is being talked up and they wanting to sell it."
It's long understood that this is the exit strategy for CF. You can find videos on this from 2 or 3 years ago. So there is no surprise here. So PIs expect(fingers crossed) that at some point this will happen.
Stt,
If it was PI's ramping here that was causing the sp rise then it would be a lot higher and on a lot of other stocks too including TLY.
In fairness the company has steadily grown their revenue over the last couple of years with good visibility over the next year.
On the fluctuations in share price, you for one should know there can be a disconnect between sp/market cap and the underlying value of an actual business.
The price was overbought and frothed up during covid and by bs from CF which peaked in early/mid 2021, then the sp declined and the nadir was probably end of 2022 but over the whole of 2023 the company has trended upwards with
But during all of this the company has plugged along winning larger and larger contracts, leading to larger revenues and cash. That's what matters to the business.
I can't believe that stt is still posting here.
He is worried about the options giving to Mo. If he is so worried raise a question at the next Q&A and ask what portion of the 7m shares vest in January 2025? Because not all of them do.
I also don't understand this almost TLY vs HVO debate from stt.
I've considered previously TLY but I just think their operating margin is waver thin but I will keep an eye on them in the future but I don't need to go to their forum and blast their page with how much better an investment hVivo is.
I don't think I need to add Bull points for hvivo at this time, I'm hopeful the January updates will provide that for me and further modest growth for 2024.
TLY can't even provide guidance at the moment
STT, What have those company drops got to do with hVivo?
For instance , NANO destroyed its value this year due to litigation where it has to pay €150m fine!
BYOT has had years of declining revenue so SP reduction is no surprise.
"Liberum's target price is only 29p and that was based relative to a peer's takeover price.
IF HVO receive a bid around the Nomad's target of 29p, then they are likely to tell the BoD that it's a fair price."
hVivo is still over 20% off that 29p target and given that in the last year Liberium have raised the target price from 21.6 that 29p ( pt of 25.1(Jan 23), 26.6(Jun 23), 29(Dec 23) I'd expect to see that target price rise further through the year.
I was going to respond to STT but no real point.
I'm really looking forward to the January updates and hopefully price will continue upward trend and I can eventually break even!
What will be enough for me to be happy:
2023 Revenue:£55m (£57.5m+ including other income)
EBITDA : £11.1m
Cash: £32m
Order Book:€85m
2024 Target of £61m
STT stated
H1 2023: fy2022 £50m to fy2023 guidance £55m - that's around 10-11%
"hVIVO increases its revenue guidance to GBP55 million (excluding other income) for 2023"
The other income here is primarily the R&D tax credits.
Previously the 2023 estimate was €55m including other income.
So that's a nice €2m increase and I believe we can expect a modest revenue boost above the forecasted figure, so approx 14% on the 2022 figures like for like. Not bad at all.
I can see that part of Stt's message was edited or an earlier message deleted where he talked about the upside on the SP of only 20-25% based on the 30p price targets. Of course it is a 40% upsdide. Maybe he redid the calculation and deleted it when it looked too high for him!https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.html?ShareTicker=HVO&share=hVIVO#posting-rules
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/rgz9g3w
So even with the new facility up and running in Q1 2024, they expect fy2024 revenue to increase by ONLY £5m. Really?
Maybe their r&d budget is sufficient but I'm sure there were projects with good internal IRR that were mothballed when some of the money could have been poured into instead.
But then again I hate buybacks. I always feel like it is done for management's bonus KPI's